Week 4 Lines Discussion

I have not had a good first 3 weeks of college, so looking to get a little discussion going on some lines that are of interest to me, if you like it, dont like it, and why. 

TULSA +13.5 @ OKST (I'm a fan of in state little brother dogs. Only good play I had last week was South Bama @ AUB)

PUR +27.5 @ ND (27.5?! 4 TDs?! I dont get it. Purdue has been decently competitive and ND showed their defense is not good. I was expecting something between 14.5 and 20.5 for this game)

MICH -1.5 @ NEB (Michigan has looked pretty good even in a loss vs OK and Nebraska is not impressive whatsoever. I dont understand why this line is only 1.5)

SC +12.5 @ MIZ (I was expecting something under 10 here. Maybe it gets bet down throughout the week. I dont know what I'm missing here. Is Mizzou that good to be laying double digits in the SEC to a decent team?)

BYU @ ECU +7.5 (I dont know anything at all about ECU, but BYU doesnt look that good and thats a lot of wood to lay going cross country)

SHSU +41.5 @ TEX (Texas has not been remotely close to covering any of these monster spreads. And we have another in state dog here to boot)

SC depends on the QB if he is playing

@Yanasaur

 I agree with your thoughts on every one of these.  The problem is when a line looks "off" there is usually a reason - something we don't know and Vegas does. 

@Super_Chicken

 Yea thats right. Thats what we need to figure out. What are they seeing that we arent and is there a play to be made based on that. The play could be we take the opposite side. I just dont know 

The last 4 times Irish have lost they covered the next game. But that is a lot of points!! This Purdue not one to self-destruct. I'd want +28.5 though.

I researched SHSU defense in the summer. A real pieced together lot of unexperienced players. They are not good and Longhorns looking to redeem themselves after poor performance. 

Michigan under Moore not showing to be a road warrior yet, Huskers hungry. A tossup in my eyes. 

@UNIMAN

 SHSU is definitely not good. It just looks like Texas has no interest in covering these big numbers. That being said Im not gonna play it but interested to see what happens. I was on Texas to cover the big number following the OSU loss and they just didnt care. 

As far as Michigan I was actually pretty impressed with their effort against OK. I didnt expect them to win but I thought they looked good and they've improved a lot offensively the last couple of weeks just by the eye test. I honestly think they are capable of steamrollling Nebraska. 

But I've had some way wrong calls the last couple weeks so its got me questioning everything I think. 

https://www.instagram.com/p/DOoAEYwkSII/?igsh=bmxlanFmOG1taDlh

Thinking that ND fixes this snafu now that the cat is out of the bag. Excellent coaching and attention to detail by A&M. Still gave up 40, but who knows, a win is a win.

@Yanasaur

 I like all your plays with the exception of Tulsa...Ok State will destroy them...Tulsa - 1st year coach, gutted by the Tr portal, Ok St off a beat down from Oregon, that was caused by looney tunes Mike Gundy's own mouth...off a bye week...Stillwater is a tough place for visiting teams...I will be on Ok St and feel confident in my pick...GL on your other picks...Ok St is only suppose to win 3 to 4 games this season, but I bet this will be one of them...and they will let up on their little brother until well into the 4th quarter...Oklahoma State 42 Tulsa 17

@Yanasaur

 Nice writeups and don’t feel like  the long ranger my first 3 weeks have been really bad too, with Utah beating UCLA 43–13 has my only big winner, with U on N-Dame don’t see them covering 27.5 with the boilmakers new coach Odom, plus they hung with USC, and I’m not touching Texas bc they look like they  only wanna get out with A win and are trying to keep the games close GL this week and do U have any thoughts on the rice game Thursday night, I’m leaning rice with triple option offense, hopefully the owls can play keep away 

@Super_Chicken

 I picked up Purdue last night +27- penn now 25

So this is interesting, every one of these lines moved the direction I was thinking. I havent played any of them, but it will be interesting to see if they are winners and maybe have some confidence going into the following week. 

Tulsa down to 12.5

Purdue down to 25.5

Michigan up to 2.5 

SC all the way down to 9.5, basically what I thought it would open at

ECU down to 6.5 

SHSU down to 39.5

@Yanasaur

 I like the USCe play quite a bit. I’m on that too. Lots of dogs I like this week. Nebraska, UF, USCe, TTU, ILL, Delaware, Auburn. 
I have Purdue pretty low in the B1G and wouldn’t want to mess with an 0-2 ND trying to hold on to a ranking. It’s a lot of points so BOL. 

@jp1lsu

 UF I like this week. Im a Gator homer. I was on them against LSU. Bad penalties and turnovers and they still were in it. Defense is playing very well. I think they could pull off the upset this week.

Well well. Just go w my gut then I guess. 

Tulsa, Purdue, Michigan, all winners.

3-0 pending SC, ECU, and SHSU who all covering currently. 

I bet 0 of these games bc I lost confidence after week 3. 

4-2 not bad, guess I gotta get my confidence back and trust myself again

@Yanasaur

 I was was 3-0 after 3 bad weeks , U will get it back , be patient it’s A long season 

I had rice , Florida state and Virginia and state and Virginia play Friday night  haven’t seen a line yet but if I can get about 15 leaning Virginia 

@ULLafayettekid