Week 14 Lines Discussion

Week 13 was a disaster. Had a bunch of good weeks in the middle of the season. Hopefully we can finish up the regular season on a high note now. 

Here are a couple I've bet so far. Interested to hear thoughts and I will post some more for discussion I find interesting. 

PSU -11.5 - Played them in a write up a couple weeks ago and live bet them last week but didn't write it up. Going back once more. They are playing with pride and playing hard the last 4 or 5 weeks and just blew out MSU and Nebraska in back to back weeks. They need one more win to get to 6 on the year and I dont see any reason they shouldn't continue and smash Rutgers to close out the season. Rutgers is coming off being punished by OSU and I think PSU is the team more interested in making a statement here. 

WASH +7.5 and ml +225 - Just like the spot here for a tough Washington team in the last game of the season at home when Oregon has their playoff spot already locked up and will be looking to not get any injuries and just get out of there. 

UNC +7.5 and ml +250 - This team is playing hard. They couldn't quite finish against Duke but were in it until the end. NCSU is not good as a favorite and are coming off an upset victory over FSU. UNC has gotten better as the year has gone on and I think they end their season on a high note with a road win

Too many 2 loss teams for Oregon to drop their last one of the season. Dont think they’d be a lock at all. UW beat up too.

I’d think Penn still would finish season strong…just based on their season.  

Looking at ARZ

   ASU was in last years conference final and this season not quite the same momentum.  Then add Jeff Sims as QB.

If CU had any defense and converted any of the 4 turnovers they received ?  Even with all that it was a less than a TD game heading into the fourth Q.  

ASU will not be rushing for 250+ and if they turn the ball over, which Sims is very capable of, and has been known to do so.  

Add all this up I’ll take my chances ARZ moneyline and possible alt line-6.5

Yes Arizona is playing good ball for several weeks now. I faded ASU last week in Colorado and it looked good up until the end. I for sure will tail you on Arizona here. The opening line said it all

@HockeyNight11

 They are a lock..just use your brain dude…the Big Ten is getting 3 teams in…too much money involved not too

Who would get in over them if they lost this game?

agree.  Oregon is in. I'm not sure Oregon is a team that ever "mails in" a game so the ML is a tougher (but correct) call but +7.5 is a nice grab here.  Oregon does have a very small chance of grabbing a 4 seed I guess?  Probably not though as I cant see them jumping either tOSU or IU.  Some crazy things would have to happen to get a 4 seed (GT over GA, BYU over TT, MSU over MISS, Texas over TAMU, for example).  So winning may still be desired but agree not much necessity to win big or keep the best players grinding out there at risk of injury

good luck!

agree.  Oregon is in. I'm not sure Oregon is a team that ever "mails in" a game so the ML is a tougher (but correct) call but +7.5 is a nice grab here.  Oregon does have a very small chance of grabbing a 4 seed I guess?  Probably not though as I cant see them jumping either tOSU or IU.  Some crazy things would have to happen to get a 4 seed (GT over GA, BYU over TT, MSU over MISS, Texas over TAMU, for example).  So winning may still be desired but agree not much necessity to win big or keep the best players grinding out there at risk of injury

good luck!

@spottie2935

 How do you feel about the PSU, Wash, and UNC plays?

I think they’re in too but I’m just saying you probably don’t want to be rolling the dice on a last week of the season loss vs an unranked team when you could potentially be up against a 2 loss Alabama, Oklahoma, ND, Miami, Utah, Vandy, even Michigan. 

With 0-1 loss Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Indiana, OSU, A&M, ?BYU. 

not much of a math guy but not all these teams are getting in haha

@HockeyNight11

 That's a fair point. So it may not be a no effort game for them by any stretch but I have to think playoff is on the minds of the Oregon players in some fashion. 

And wouldn't that be the ultimate motivator for Washington if they believe they can be the spoiler on their home field in the last game of the season

@Yanasaur

 No doubt. UW has a lot of injuries though were those guys held out to prep for this. All out UW effort? 

It’s a rivalry game if Oregon isn’t up for this then they don’t need to worry about the playoffs very much imo!

Wazzu keeps getting covers on decent lines before playing their only division opponent ORE ST

Then when playing Oregon State their line flops to being opportunistic the other way.  

Been too busy to get more write ups in, but I will also be playing:

KSU -17.5 or better

ORE ST +13.5 or better

Going to wait on these and see if we can get some movement. More interested in getting it to a flat 17 on KSU or 16.5. 

Some other games of interest that I haven't bet yet but am considering:

UNM +100 - I know the Aztecs have a great defense but I kind of like the Lobos to get it done at home here

PUR +29.5 - This team at times has shown a little fight. Last home game here against an undefeated Indiana and this is a ton of points. They are also on extended rest. Indiana is too, but what does this game really mean to them? I just dont see them putting in an effort to win by 4+ TDs here

OKST +14.5 - The cowboys have been a little more competitive lately vs not the greatest competition, but ISU is not the greatest competition. ISU doesnt have really anything to play for and 2 TDs on the road might be a lot to ask of them. 

MSU -3.5 - Another bottom feeder that's been looking more competitive lately

Update:

I did bet KSU and ORE ST but not those last 4

KSU -15.5 at -130

ORE ST +15.5 at -130

I dont normally pay -130 juice or buy numbers but -110 for KSU -17.5 and Ore St +13.5. I dont mind 20 cents to get over the 16 and 17 w KSU and cross over the 14 for ORE ST. 

I suck. Just so incredibly bad the last couple weeks

@Mskeets

 I was wrong… again.  

@Yanasaur

 Yea.  I’m taking it in shorts so far this week.  

About to go 0-5 what a way to end the season. Lost all profits basically the last 3 weeks. Very disappointed. I was rolling along super hot and then just completely fell apart. I got fooled big time