Week 11: thoughts about some games, plays, leans, discussion

Week 11 Plays

Utah -5.5

Seems like a steal if Wilkins is a no-go, or limited in any way.  Think it likely he plays based on the line.  Az st still has a long list of injuries to deal with that are included in the line, but think they make a difference when the game is played.  Utah playing for a chance to go to Pac 12 Champ game, Az st needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and both coming off bye - seems likely to see a focused effort by both clubs.  Utah won last year 34-18, limiting Az st rushing to 15 total yards.  Utah is a pedestrian offense but Az St D is bottom 25.  Utah will score, and the Utah D will get enough stops to cover the short line here.  Worries: Strange things happen in the desert at night which would be my only possible reasoning for betting on Az st here.

Auburn -10

My SEC record is not great, not even good...pretty bad.  But this line forced my hand.  Auburn has figured it out, won 6 straight, covered ? with only the bad spot non-cover against Vandy as a blemish.  Double revenge for Auburn, and they get a GA team that is really vulnerable.  Ga still plays pretty good D (30th), but their offense is non-existent (99th).  Think they will find the sledding tough against Auburn, and Auburn pulls away eventually.  Worries: Auburn performance vs Vandy is how they play this one.  

So far these are .5u.  Waiting to see where the line goes…

Penn St. -6.5

Indiana is eeking out wins vs the bottom feeders, and Penn St is killing the middle tier,(Iowa) knocking off OSU etc.  Not going to get in front of this team that has now joined the top 10 in S+P, and top 20 in FEI.  Indiana is solid middle tier club, but with a suspect pass D, and PSU is throwing the ball quite well (ranked #5 in passing efficiency).  Could they be in letdown, finally?  Maybe.  But I’m thinking they continue to roll with lowly Rutgers on deck.  Worries:  Think the books could have gotten even money at -10, so the line seems a bit off to me.  As above, do they let down?

Washington -8.5

Line is already dripping down to 8.  I can understand the USC money.  When UW has stepped up in class, once, they barely got by Utah.  USC has looked good lately.  BUT Utah game was on the road and those USC wins were against 4 of the worst 20 defenses in the country.  A lot of teams would look good vs Oregon, ASU, AZ, and Cal.  With that D, and those 3 NFL guys in the defensive secondary, UW will get some stops.  Jury is out on USC D - are they top 25 as S+P would suggest, or middling as 56th rank in FEI suggests.  Think UW moves the ball with that super efficient offense.  Worries: I don’t think UW is overrated, but I’ve been wrong before.

Western Michigan -18.5

Saw this as a 24 pt line, even on the road.  Not sure how Kent St, with 126th least efficient offense moves the ball on the Broncos.  And while Kent st plays a bit of D, this Bronco offense is elite.  It’s nationally televised, WMU is in the drivers seat for a NYsix game, love how PJ Fleck coaches each week as a season in itself.  Only thing that prevents the cover is WMU, can’t see Kent offering much resistance, despite what I know will be a great effort on their part.  Worries: Turnovers and backdoors, but if turnover battle is -1 or better, think we get the win by 3td’s or more.

Other plays when lines released:

1h Michigan - 1h covering machine

1h Western KY - ditto

1h La Tech OVER. - they score early and often, and UTSA should add a few of their own against dreadful D.

Ole Miss +20? - where is A+M head at?

NIU always beats Toledo in this spot.  Toledo is vulnerable.  Over might be better play?

Pitt/Clemson over - at 63 or less, or am I dreaming?