Why to watch: While it may not sound like much in most regions of the country, getting to .500 would be a really big deal for UNLV and maligned head coach Mike Sanford. For starters, a win this weekend would make the Rebels bowl-eligible, opening up the possibility of a postseason game for just the fourth time in school history. It would also provide a tremendous long-term boost to a program that was picked to finish in last place before the season started. San Diego State’s nightmare is almost over. Chuck Long has just one more game to endure before he can officially start an offseason that’s sure to be loaded with changes on the staff, on the field, and even in the areas of training and conditioning.
Why UNLV might win: No one in the country is having a harder time stopping than the run than San Diego State, which allows 267 yards a game on the ground. That’s an open invitation for the Rebels to run beefy Frank Summers 20 or 25 times. The Aztecs are feeble up front, collecting just four sacks in the last seven games, which could provide QB Mike Clausen the time he needs to locate receivers Ryan Wolfe and Casey Flair.
Why San Diego State might win: The Aztecs won’t be the only team in Qualcomm Stadium with defensive problems. UNLV is 115th nationally in run defense and has given up 22 touchdowns through the air. As bad as San Diego State has been on offense, this could be an ideal time for QB Ryan Lindley to test his arm by hooking up with top pass-catchers Vincent Brown and Darren Mougey. Just a few weeks ago, RB Atiyyah Henderson showed what he could do against a porous run defense, shredding Colorado State for 177 yards and two scores on 25 carries.
Who to watch: For all of the defensive problems that both schools have had, there’ll be no shortage of quality linebackers in this game. UNLV junior Jason Beauchamp leads the Mountain West in tackles and has the potential to eventually play at the next level. San Diego State has three quality players at the position—Russell Allen, Luke Laolagi, and Andrew Preston, who’ve all made at least 80 stops this season. Laolagi and Preston will be back next season to bolster the corps.
What will happen: It’s been four long years and 18 game since UNLV won a conference game outside of Las Vegas. The Rebels will snap that streak and become bowl-eligible on Saturday night, riding the shoulders of Summers, who’ll rumble for his fourth 100-yard game of the year and a couple of touchdowns.
I think they win this one by 20+...Sitting at -10 right now, what do you guys think?