Uconn at Mich -3

This matchup will affect the rest of my season.

UConn played inspired football last year, however I have no faith in the passing attack.  Zach Frazer 10:9 ratio is pretty bad.  Also I can't trust the Michigan D.  This makes the O/U out of the question.

I love watching Denard Robinson run but he is horrible as a passer.  Rich Rod has to have a better way to get him the ball.

The power/smash mouth style of UConn should limit the touches of Robinson and the Wolverines.  Plus Michigan is good for a turnover or 2.

I feel as Rich Rod has better talent and more mystique but Randy has the more disciplined team.

Michigan team total over 16 for 2nd halftime is the only play for me.

The reason this game will affect the rest of my wagering season is because I strongly believe this is a classic Overachiver (UConn) vs underachiver (Mich) based on the recent past. 

I don't want to take any credit away from UConn as last year they went toe2toe (losing by average of 3) with #19NC, Pitt, #22 W Virg, Rutgers, #4 Cincy.  The OT win over ND seemed like more of an Irish collapse than a UConn win.

what I want to learn from this game is:

1. Will Mich continue to turn the ball over?

2. Can UConn expliot the secondary in the passing game?

3. How will the Mich D-line play against the solid UConn O-line?

4. Will Rich Rod run gimmick plays on 3rd and 1 or rely on the power of the O-line?

.....The list goes on,  In my mind I just see this as a slow starting game.  If the O/U is 53 that means we are looking at a 28-24 type score predicted.  I don't know why I was thinking a 2nd half wager in the first week of August.  It must have been the Hieniken's talking.  However, I do pretty good when my subconsious picks the game for me.

I like UConn here.  ND on deck for the Wolves and a much better defense lastyear for the Huskies.

Good Luck though.

UCONN +3 at Michigan (UCONN much better power in this spot, equal stability between the two, UCONN 11-3 ATS L2 yrs away, UCONN also on a 10-2 ATS winning streak in 1st two wks of the season, I like UCONN as a dark horse in the East, Mich 40% ATS as fav late, its make or break for Rodriguez this season, and it starts with a UCONN team that went 4-0 L4 games of 09,

Mich goes on the road to Notre Dame wk 2

DWood's analysis is the most accurate here... Bookie, i think you are looking at this in a very simplistic way... you are remembering how Michigan finished up the year... but remember, they came out of the gate screaming...

Rodriguez is notorious for his off-season conditioning... his teams always come out of the gate in better playing shape than any other team in the country, and then other teams catch up as the year rolls along...

on top of that, the look-ahead factor is crap... Rich Rodriguez cares far far far more about beating UConn than he does Notre Dame at this point... that will change eventually, but he wants this game, you can be sure...

DWood hit it right... it's a bad matchup for UConn against his style of football, which is why he has always owned them...

people are getting suckered on this game, and Mich is at a very cheap price...

I can't call it....like I said before UConn's average loss vs top teams last year was 3 points.

I will wager that Michigan will score some points.  I just don't want UConn to eat the clock since I believe Michigan will have at least 2 turnovers.