OKLAHOMA -4.5 auburn
Remember when Oklahoma was in the Big 12 and defense was optional? Remember when the Boomer Schooner tipped over and crashed. That was friggin hilarious. Brent Venables has changed their tune and now they are a physical defensive team that Barry Switzer would be proud of. Last week, the Sooners held the Temple Owls to 3 points…this was a Temple team that had averaged 48.5 points per game in their previous two contests. Oklahoma held Illinois State to 3 points. Illinois State averaged 41.5 points per game in their other two contests. Oh Yeah…Oklahoma held Michigan to 13 points, a team that averaged 48.5 points in their other two contests. Get the picture? There is every reason to believe that Hugh Freeze’s Tiger offense will be “escorted” out of Norman pronto. Brent Venables? He’s the Soup Nazi. “NO TOUCHDOWNS FOR YOU!”
Let’s not pretend Auburn’s offense is the maestro behind the velvet curtain. Jackson Arnold’s homecoming isn’t going to go well. There is a reason why the Sooners booted him. Auburn ranks 101st in explosive pass rate. While their defense might look stout, they have given up 32 missed tackles in just two games against Baylor and South Alabama. That’s not SEC-level. That’s “Babu Bhatt’s Restaurant” level: nice idea, poor execution.
Even with speedsters like Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton, Auburn's passing game has been shorter than George Costanza when he got out of the pool.
The Auburn passing game is a dink-and-dunk Chuckee Cheese game show. Oklahoma’s John Mateer is out here cooking like he’s got Puddy riding shotgun yelling “Feels like we’re dominating!” Mateer’s racked up 944 yards, 5 TDs, and 9 total touchdowns with a passing game that ranks top-50 in Success Rate and top-40 in Finishing Drives. The guy doesn’t just move the ball — he shoots…and he scores! Oklahoma averages 5.4 points per drive past the 40. That’s not offense — that’s economic stimulus like a Jerome Powell rate cut.
And Auburn’s defense? Ranked outside the top 100 in both rush and pass EPA. Auburn’s tackling grade: 105th. It’s Yada Yada yada.
Oklahoma is 13-0 in its last 13 games as a home favorite.
Auburn is 0-8 in its last 8 road games vs. AP-ranked teams.
OU’s defense: 7-of-41 third downs allowed. That’s 17%.
Sure, the Schooner once tipped over like Kramer in tight jeans — hilarious and tragic. But now? That wagon is rolling downhill with turbo boost, and Auburn is tied to the back like it’s trying to return a fruit basket to Tim Whatley.
This isn’t just about covering -4.5. This is about a team that has rebuilt its identity under Venables faster than George abandoned latex sales. The Sooners are battle-tested with wins over legit offenses. Auburn? They’re walking into a buzzsaw after scraping by Baylor and South Alabama — and still giving up big plays like it’s their job.
Jackson Arnold may have revenge on his mind, but Brent Venables has tape, blitzes, and one of the most disciplined defenses in the country. The only thing Arnold will be throwing Saturday? Tantrums and interceptions. Boomer Sooner, baby. Laying the wood on the home team.
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