A winner posted here last Saturday (8-7, .533), bringing the full season to an anemic 32-31 (.508) record. It seems I’m providing little value thus far. As ever, evaluating every game on the board (and this week eschewing the chalk), the box placed all of these on the ticker tape:
1) SanDiegoSt(-5.5)/ColoradoSt
2) Akron(+8.0)/CentralMich
3) UAB(+7.0)/Army
4) Florida(+7.5)/Texas
5) FloridaSt(+4.5)/ MiamiFlorida
6) Temple(+ 6.5)/UTSA
7) CentralFlorida(+4.5)/Kansas
8) NoIllinois (+5.5)/MiamiOhio
9) SouthAlabama(+2.5)/Troy
10) WestKentucky(+2.5)/ Delaware
11) NewMexico(+2.5)/SanJoseSt
Through five weeks, the top two selections have performed profitably (6-4, .600). The tweaked latter-portion of my 2024 season was also profitable -- possibly a reflection of the more-mature power ratings. That was hard to know though, given the small sample size. Nonetheless, the Human Administrator made an algorithm ‘adjustment’ this week; trying to coax some similar sunshine. Nine weeks left in the trenches.....
Hey, how about some boring tech-stuff serving as a shameless distraction? Middles. I attempted one last November, but hadn’t actually tried one since 2021. I have placed seven of them since 2018; hitting just once. That one had some exceptional payoff odds (36/1) so, by that math, I can wade-in about 29 more times before I reach the breakeven ($). Conventionally though, the payoff is more like 24/1, so a revised-future would be less lofty than that 29-attempt cushion.
My MIN gap-criteria for a middle is four (4) points. And of course, one needs to also be on the right side of the play; holding a team that’s grown more attractive at the earlier-placed line. Concluding with some geeky data-collection, it naturally rolls to ask how often that >=4 point movement happens (???). My database captures only the early & final lines, so I can’t account for what happens in between; likely presenting slightly more opportunity.
Anyway, here’s the cheap-thrill data payoff. During seasons 2023-4 (1469 games), there were 71 games with movement of four points or greater (4.8%). This year (242 games) has seen 11 such games (4.5%). That movement is proportionally weighted toward the away team gaining points; roughly twice as often. Bottom line – middles are tough to pull off. However, it’s a totally sweet-gambit for players who are both watchful & nimble. And, did I mention..…..lucky?
We have 50 games on the board this week -- an abundance of opportunity. Enjoy the ride.
Good luck,
TheKingfish
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