No ACC team in CFP if Duke wins Conference Championship

That would be an awful look for the ACC, but warranted. The conference has become more of a Group of 5 conference instead of a Power 4 (in football).

I’m not into conspiracy theories, but I could see a flag or two going in Virginia’s favor. What a disaster for a once mighty conference if they get shut out of the CFP.

It’s possible a Virginia loss would open the door to Miami getting in, but there are quite a few 2 loss teams stacked up around the 10 spot. 

I did take the -135 on Virginia moneyline. 

I expect Virginia to win this game regardless of any ref stuff. Granted anything is possible but Duke has been hot and cold all year. They went 0-3 against Out of Conference FBS opponents (Illinois, Tulane, UConn) but still made the Conference title game which is wild.

@AJ86

 Atleast 1 team from ACC will make.  Even if it is Duke.  Who ever wins the conference has a automatic bid.

No they won't. They are not putting a 5 loss team in the playoffs.

@AJ86

 It is part of the rules setup for the 2025-2026 season.  Go read them.

@Spykeo

I've read them. And your wrong. Also read this below as more evidence.

 The College Football Playoff's selection criteria is often misstated as the champion of the four power leagues (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC) and the top ranked Group of Five champion ahead of at-large picks. But that's not quite it. The criteria is actually the top five ranked league champions. While that will usually be the four power champions and a G5 team, it's not guaranteed that way.

If 7-5 Duke takes down Virginia, an 8-5 Blue Devil team would not be one of the top five ranked league champions. Sun Belt champion James Madison and AAC champion North Texas or Tulane are two teams that would almost certainly outflank the Blue Devils-- and thus earn the CFP automatic spot. Matt Baker of The Athletic notes that the Mountain West champion could even earn a spot over Duke.

If that happens, it's entirely plausible that the ACC is out in the cold. A three-loss Virginia team wouldn't seem to attractive as an at-large pick. Miami is the top-ranked ACC team, but ESPN's most recent FPI rankings gave the Hurricanes a 10.1% CFP chance.

@Spykeo

 Duke won’t be ranked, which is now a variable. If Duke wins, the ACC could potentially be out. 

Exactly 

The ACC (in football) is closer to the American Conference if anything. This is why I think James Franklin going to Virginia Tech is a great move. Less "pressure" games for him which means he can thrive.

@Greedybastard

 Miami should already be in.

@jimmydafreak

 two unranked losses to SMU and Louisville and there not playing in the conference champ, there cooked

@avlbuilder

Has absolutely nothing to do with nothing.  The season isn't two weeks long.

At the conclusion of the regular season, Alabama, BYU, Vandy and Miami should have "officially" clinched playoff spots, and Notre Dame should have been "officially" eliminated from playoff contention.

@jimmydafreak

 Disagree. Outside of their week 1 narrow win against Notre Dame, they didn't beat anyone. Secondly, they didn't even qualify for their own conference championship. Duke did, who I might add, went 0-3 in Out of Conference games. The ACC has nobody to blame but themselves.

8/1 on Miami to make the Playoff. Not sure I will pull the trigger, but it is worth a look. 

miami had 8 different scenarios on saturday to make the CC game and none of them came through

JimmyDafreak is a COVERS Goat along with Bookie Assassin and a few others ….nice to see you post.  What you think about the SEC championship ?   Hope Bookie and you emerge for the bowl season 

12 BEST teams (probably) - using composite PR / Sagarin SOS

1.  OSU

2.  Indy

3.  ND

4.  Ducks

5.  TT

6.  Ga

7.  Bama

8.  A&M

9.  Miami

10. Ole Miss

11.  OU

12.  VANDY

  >> then if you want 16 (better this year)

13.  Texas

14.  Utah

15.  BYU

16.  USC

* other choices at #16 (USC 9-3 / SOS 33) - Iowa - Tenn - Mizzou - Washington - Michigan - Virginia?

There is only ONE fair/correct way to determine a champion - anything else is involves way too much BIAS - ridiculous talk of good wins/ bad losses.  As every other sport on earth does it / winner advances:

FBS l

* 4 conferences / 2 divisions - auto 8 team play-off

FBS ll

 * same - (if you win the MAC, you should advance to a play-off)

@bookieassassin

 i feel like only 8 of the teams listed have any chance to win it all. even in a season like this, where there is no clear dominant team, 12 seems like plenty to make sure all the real contenders are in.

i thought acc was a power conference