NCAA Week Five Ponderings

After last week's brutal 1-5 showing it's pretty obvious I need to do a better job of "pondering". Moving on.....

Friday, Sept. 26th

Florida St. -7 at VIRGINIA - First big road test for the Seminoles, who have a huge showdown with Miami on deck. Cavaliers QB Chandler Morris is completing nearly 71% of his passes for 1050 yards and eight TDs with just one pick. He's also rushed for 132 yards and another score. Cavs have a shot here. 

Houston -13' at OREGON ST. - Cougars are off a bye after a strong start to the season. Beavers are 0-4 SU and ATS. This line seems inflated but the Beavs are unplayable right now.

Saturday, Sept. 27th - early games

Notre Dame -4' at ARKANSAS - Huge game for both teams, but even bigger for the Irish who have to win out to have any hope of returning to the playoffs. They got their mojo back in last week's rout of Purdue, while the Razorbacks return home after two frustrating losses at Ole Miss and at Tulane. They had a chance to win both games late, but fumbled away their chances. Hogs QB Taylen Green is a top talent, but sometimes makes bonehead decisions. Still, The wrong team may be favored here.

Louisville -4' at PITTSBURGH - First road test for the Cardinals after opening 3-0 vs. outmatched foes. Home team has won the last five meetings (4-0-1 ATS), and Cards HC Jeff Brohm is 2-8-1 ATS as road chalk with Louisville. Meanwhile the Panthers, off a bye, are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games after a week of rest. Not sure what's going on with Pitt's top RB Desmond Reid. Don't know if he's hurt or in Pat Narduzzi's doghouse, and Narduzzi ain't saying.

Usc -6' at ILLINOIS - Biggest test of the season for the Trojans who are 1-13 SU and ATS in the Central and Eastern time zones since 2013 (0-5 ATS under Lincoln Riley). Homecoming game for the Illini who are looking to rebound from their shocking 63-10 wipeout at Indiana. Despite that setback, QB Luke Altmyer is completing 70% of his passes for 855 yards and nine TDs, and the Trojan defense is nothing special. Illinois can hang here.

KANSAS ST. -6 vs. Ucf - We'll see if K St. is out of their funk after a bye week. As bad as they've looked they could STILL win the Big 12. Knights are 3-0 but haven't been tested yet. Maybe they won't be tested here either.

NORTH TEXAS -12' vs. South Alabama - Jaguars hung tough at home vs. Tulane, and at Auburn, before laying an egg at home in a 38-20 loss to Coastal Carolina, despite having 126 more yards than the Chanticleers. Mean Green are off a dramatic 45-38 OT win at Army, and have the rest of their conference slate coming up, beginning with USF next week. Jaguars are looking to avenge a 52-38 upset loss in last year's season opener, and catch North Texas in a bad spot.

You will be better than last week for sure 

GL

Afternoon games 

ULM -1' vs. Arkansas St. - Red Wolves have won and covered 15 straight in this series......and they're the underdog. Hmmm.

Utah -13' at WEST VIRGINIA - Line movement would indicate that Utes QB Devon Dampier is good to go, after he played on a gimpy ankle in last week's loss to Texas Tech. Apparently he injured it the week before in Wyoming, but it was undisclosed until this week.

San Diego St. -2' at NIU - If this game was played a week ago the Huskies would probably be favored. The Aztecs' 34-0 stunner over Cal was a head scratcher. 

OLE MISS -1' vs. Lsu - Home team has covered 11 of the last 12 meetings, including seven straight. Biggest question here is who starts at QB for the Rebels. Backup Trinidad Chambliss has been money in wins over Arkansas and Tulane, completing 68% of his passes for 719 yards and four TDs, while rushing for 195 yards (5.4 YPR). Austin Simmons is the starter and has thrown four TD passes, but has also thrown four picks. If it were me I'd go with the hot hand, for what it's worth.

TEXAS A&M -6' vs. Auburn - Aggies look to avenge a four overtime loss on the Plains last season and are off a bye, after winning in South Bend the week before. Auburn is on the road again after a tough 24-17 loss at Oklahoma and may be a little gassed.

Ohio St. -8' at WASHINGTON - First road test for the Buckeyes, who have won 20 straight games after a bye (13-7 ATS). Huskies are off Apple Cup blowout at Wazzu. Tough call.

BOSTON COLLEGE -6' vs. California - The Golden Bears were 13' point favorites at San Diego St. and were blown out, 34-0. Go figure. Now they're on the road again, clear across the country, facing a team off a bye for the second straight week.

Indiana -7' at IOWA - First road trip for the Hoosiers, off a shocking 63-10 wipeout of Illinois. Hawkeyes appear to have found some offense the last two weeks and QB Mark Gronowski seems to be getting better by the game, but it remains to be seen if they can keep up with Indiana. It's Homecoming in Iowa City. 

Tennessee -7' at MISSISSIPPI ST. - Vols better not sleep on these guys. The Bulldogs are 4-0 SU, and 3-0 ATS, and already have a home upset over Arizona St. The cowbells are gonna be noisy in this one as Missy St. looks to avenge a 33-14 loss in Knoxville a year ago. Tennessee has a revenge game with Arkansas on deck. 

@BiaSaigon

 One can only hope! 

@mjm1012

Nice write ups. I hope you get back on the winning side. College has been very tough for me this year too. I think I know something and it goes completely opposite. I did actually play South Bama this past week at 14.5 and thought they would roll after seeing how well they played against better competition the last couple weeks, but maybe they are just one of those teams that only plays well as a dog. 

Im on Virginia w the 7.5 and moneyline. Thats the only game ive played so far. 

I also like Pitt, Illinois, and Arkansas which I did a small moneyline parlay on with Virginia. 

Good luck this week 

@Yanasaur

 BOL to you too my friend! 

@Boisestateand8

 Arkansas, wow look at that offense. Keep looking, don't look at the defense. Don't look. They gave up 500 yds, 290 rushing to Memphis. NDs Love just might score every time he touches the ball. The only time the Hogs looked good on D was against Alabama A&M. Over 64 and the Irish -4.

Notre Dame, wow! Look at that offense! Keep looking, don't look at the defense. Don't look. They've given up 98 points in three games, 71 in the last two! At home! The Hogs might score every time they have the ball! The only time the Irish have looked good on defense is.......well they haven't. Good luck with your play though. 

Saturday night games - it's a short list.

PENN ST. -3' vs. Oregon - Nittany Lions are off a bye and are out to avenge last year's 45-37 loss in the BIG title game. Neither team has been tested yet this year, so it's difficult to make a call here. But it is hard to trust James Franklin in a big game, as he's 4-19 vs. top ten teams. 

GEORGIA -3 vs. Alabama - The Crimson Tide won a 41-34 thriller in Tuscaloosa last season, but I can't shake a lingering memory of them being dominated in the trenches in their 31-17 loss at FSU in Week One. And under Kirby Smart, the Bulldogs have won 49 of their last 50 games between the hedges, including 33 in a row. It's seldom you see a line this low in Athens, and within that 50 game stretch the Dawgs are 6-0 ATS when laying 11 or fewer points. Far be it for me to buck history.

SOUTH CAROLINA -6' vs. Kentucky - I have no interest in the side in this one, but the total of 46.5 seems a mite high, considering these two teams have combined for less than 40 points in eight of the last nine games, and the under has cashed in nine of the last ten. I'm not a totals player, but.......