NCAA Week 11 Ponderings

Another week of great matchups, with teams jockeying for playoff positioning and bowl bids, and others just trying to become bowl eligible. And then there are others just playing out the string (I'm looking at you UMass and Sam Houston) and not worth paying much attention to. Here are the current lines with home teams in CAPS.

Thursday, Nov. 6th

USF -14 Utsa- The Bulls are off a bye and looking to rebound from a 34-31 loss at Memphis two weeks ago, a game in which they outgained the Tigers by 114 yards. This seems like a big number, until you look at how both teams performed at North Texas in October. USF won in a 63-36 runaway (137 more yards), while UTSA was hammered 55-17 (outgained by 252 yards). 

Friday, Nov. 7th

Houston -1' UCF - Both teams are off crushing losses last week. The Knights were my top play and were a major disappointment at Baylor, while the Cougars were shocked at home by West Virginia, dealing a huge blow to their Big 12 title hopes. UCF needs two more wins for bowl eligibility.

MEMPHIS -3' Tulane - This line has dropped from -6'! I haven't seen any injury news, YET, but the Green Wave were blown out at UTSA last week and now hit the road again to face a Tigers team that's been a money maker all season (8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS, including 3-0 at home). Tulane is out to avenge last season's 34-24 loss at home, but they're just 1-3 ATS and ITS (in the stats) on the road, and there's a huge distraction here with the Jon Sumrall coaching rumors. I'd be willing to bet he'll be gone after the end of the season. 

USC -14' Northwestern - The Wildcats are off a bye, but this is BY FAR their biggest test since the Oregon game (34-14 loss). The Trojans escaped Nebraska with a win to keep their CFP hopes alive, but they're on a short week here, and are 0-2 ATS as double digit chalk vs Big Ten foes. Northwestern is 4-1 SU and ATS, and 5-0 ITS in its' last five games, and will try to control the clock with their run game. This one won't be a gimme for USC.

Thoughts, opinions and insights are always welcome here. Saturday action later. 

@Boisestateand8

 USC will find a way for NW to keep it close.  

I can rarely enjoy their games.  

UTSA -- 3 TO's (fumbles) killed them and 10 penalties hurt in UNT game ... and UNT had 5 TO's vs USF -- so stats are somewhat misleading  -- 

@BoatRace

 That's true but USF also had 3 TO in that game so they were +2 in TO. They still rolled up 580 yards of offense. 

Saturday, Nov. 8th - early games

Indiana -14' PENN ST. - The Hoosiers hit the road again following a 55-10 blowout win at Maryland. These guys are relentless under Curt Cignetti, having been outscored in the fourth quarter just one time, and that was the opener vs. ODU. Since then they've won the final stanza by a score of 79-15. The Nittany Lions hung with Ohio St. for a while last week, but in their last five games they're 0-5 SU and ITS and just 1-4 ATS. They won't win this but they MIGHT cover.

WEST VIRGINIA -6' Colorado - Freshmen QBs square off in this one. It seems like a big number, but the Buffaloes look like they've thrown in the towel.

Smu -10' BOSTON COLLEGE - The Mustangs are one of five teams with one loss in the ACC race, behind first place Virginia. They're off an overtime upset win over Miami, but must avoid a letdown with Louisville on deck and BC playing their Red Bandana game. 

Georgia -9' MISSISSIPPI ST. - Georgia has trailed in the first quarter in five of six SEC games, being outscored 52-17, and they've trailed at the half in four of those (tied 10-10 with Florida last week) AND all five games have been decided by ten points or less. Missy St. is 5-4 and could easily be 8-1. They've been a cash cow going 8-1 ATS, including 4-0 at home. UGA is off a hard fought win over Florida with Texas on deck and this won't be an easy out in Starkville, with the home team ending a long 16 game losing streak vs. the SEC last week at Arkansas. Woof!

TEXAS TECH -10' Byu -  The Cougars are undefeated and off a bye, but this will be their toughest test of the season. BYU gets RB L.J. Martin (789 yards rushing, 6.0 YPR) back from injury, but he'll be going up against one of the top defenses in the country. This line seems a mite steep, but with QB Behren Morton in the lineup (he missed the loss at Arizona St.) none of the Red Raiders' games have been close. BYU will have to play clean in this one to have a chance.

Ohio St. -29' PURDUE - I'm not overthinking this one. Buckeyes will win this by however much they want to.

Saturday afternoon 

RUTGERS -2' Maryland - The Terrapins lost at home in last year's meeting, 31-17, ending a three game series win streak. Both teams went 3-0 in their non conference slate, but have struggled in conference play. Both teams average 3.5 yards per rush, but the Terps may find some holes in a Scarlet Knight defense that's allowing 184.4 rushing yards a game (6.1 YPR). Maryland would also appear to have a huge edge in pass protection, allowing just two QB sacks all season, compared to 30 allowed by Rutgers. And on defense, Maryland has recorded 23 sacks to just ten for the Knights. Is the wrong team favored?

Louisiana Tech -6 DELAWARE - There's value in this line based on last week's results. The Bulldogs blew out a horrible Sam Houston team, 55-14, at home, while the Blue Hens were blown out at Liberty, 59-30. It's Homecoming week in Newark, and Delaware is 25-6 at home over the last four years, 3-1 this season.

Duke -9' UCONN - The Blue Devils are off a last minute 46-45 win at Clemson, (outgained by 121 yards), and are on the road for the second straight week, and they have a huge game at home vs. Virginia on deck, with first place on the line in the ACC. It goes without saying that this trip to Hartford represents a major flat spot for Duke, and means nothing in the standings. The Huskies are 4-0 SU at home, and at 2-0 ATS vs. the ACC so far this year, are looking for the hat trick. UConn might win this one outright!

Oregon -6' IOWA -  This game figures to be cold, wet and windy, which you would figure might favor the Hawkeyes. But the Ducks are 11-4 ATS as road chalk under Dan Lanning, and it's not like they're unaccustomed to crappy conditions playing in Eugene. Both teams are off a bye. Oregon should win this, but in potentially sloppy weather conditions anything can happen.

Texas A&M -6' MISSOURI - Both teams are off a bye. The undefeated Aggies are in the driver's seat in the SEC, but even with Tigers QB Beau Pribula out with an injury, this figures to be A&M's biggest conference test this year. Frosh QB Matt Zollers gets his first start for Mizzou, and has had two weeks to get ready. RB Ahmad Hardy has rushed for 937 yards, fourth in the nation, and will have to come up big here, as will a Tigers defense that's allowing just 245.8 yards a game, and just 90.4 yards on the ground. Missouri has a chance here, even without Pribula.

VANDERBILT -6' Auburn - It'll be interesting to see how the Tigers respond now that Hugh Freeze has been given his walking papers. Auburn plays good enough defense to keep this one close, in spite of their QB issues. The Commodores fell behind Texas early last week, and a valiant comeback fell just short. Vandy has been good to me the last two seasons, but I'm a little leery about taking them this week. It's Homecoming in Nashville.

Texas St. -2' LOUISIANA - Both teams are out of the running for the Sun Belt title, and are struggling just to make a bowl game. But I'm intrigued by the Ragin' Cajuns as a home dog against a team they've never lost to (12-0 SU, 11-1 ATS all time).

Still no definitive word on whether QB Brendon Lewis will play tonight for Memphis, and I'm not sure what the backups bring to the table. I might take Memphis anyway. 

Saturday evening 

CLEMSON -1' Florida St. - There was a time not that long ago when this game meant something. The Seminoles exercised some demons last week, at the expense of Wake Forest. The Tiger Paw hasn't beat anybody good this season, and have lost four games at home! 

VIRGINIA -6' Wake Forest - I was on the losing end of both games involving these two last week, although the Cavaliers beat me with a pick six with less than a minute left at Cal. The Cavs have been living dangerously lately, but if the same Wake team shows up that got smoked at FSU, then Virginia's unbeaten ACC record should remain intact.

NOTRE DAME -27' Navy - This is an ungodly amount of points, but the Irish should win this by however many they want. I wouldn't be shocked if they hang 50 on the Middies, especially after last week's lackadaisical showing against BC. It was no surprise that Navy was unbeaten going into November, but wins are gonna be hard to come by from here on out.

ALABAMA -10' Lsu - The Bayou Bengals are yet another team with an interim coach, and it'll be interesting to see how the team responds. I doubt if their offensive line will play any better and the run game has been sporadic at best. The Crimson Tide survived a scare at South Carolina two weeks ago, and I reckon LSU will have their full attention here.

UCLA -1' Nebraska - The Cornhuskers had USC on the ropes last week until QB Dillon Raiola was lost for the season (broken fibula). When he left the game the 'Huskers' offense went with him. The Bruins had last week off after being blown out by Indiana, 56-6, which snapped a three game win streak. One has to wonder what this line would've been with Raiola in the lineup. Is this too big of an adjustment with UCLA favored?

San Diego St. -7 HAWAII - The Aztecs are clearly the MWC's best team. Since their 36-13 beatdown at Wazzu, they're 6-0 SU, ATS and ITS! They have a huge showdown with Boise on deck, and they better beware of taking the Rainbow Warriors lightly. Hawaii is 16-5 ATS as a home dog over the last four years, and in the last two years they're 10-0 ATS at home! They're still in the running for the conference title if they win out, and if QB  Micah Alejado gets it going the Aztecs will have their hands full.

@Boisestateand8

In the 2 games since Lewis got injured, Memphis beat USF as a 3.5 point dog, then easily cover at Rice last week.

I still like Memphis.  Good luck whatever you decide... and as always, appreciate your posts.

@nmgolf57

Lewis played in both of those games. He left midway through the fourth quarter of last week's blowout of Rice. I like the Tigers if he's good to go, but If he doesn't play tonight I have no interest in this game. BOL if you play it. 

BC  UConn Delaware Vandy.  

@Boisestateand8

 Would love your insight on your boys in blue. Is the season a wrap after Maddux went down? I was watching that game for a bit and the backup was averaging 1 yard per attempt for most of the game. Didn't look pretty.

Outside the Colorado St game, the other 2 will be tough for your boys.

@AJ86

 Man, that game was tough to watch. Even before Maddog went down, our offensive line hasn't been playing well. Too many penalties in general, but the ones that drive me crazy are the personal fouls, unsportsmanlike conduct calls and the false starts. Those are unacceptable! Shows a lack of discipline. And our special teams haven't been "special" for a couple of years. It's good that they have a bye this week because they have a lot to work on and a lot to clean up. Winning in San Diego next week will be a tall order with the way both teams are playing right now.