NCAA Week 11 Ponderings

Another week of great matchups, with teams jockeying for playoff positioning and bowl bids, and others just trying to become bowl eligible. And then there are others just playing out the string (I'm looking at you UMass and Sam Houston) and not worth paying much attention to. Here are the current lines with home teams in CAPS.

Thursday, Nov. 6th

USF -14 Utsa- The Bulls are off a bye and looking to rebound from a 34-31 loss at Memphis two weeks ago, a game in which they outgained the Tigers by 114 yards. This seems like a big number, until you look at how both teams performed at North Texas in October. USF won in a 63-36 runaway (137 more yards), while UTSA was hammered 55-17 (outgained by 252 yards). 

Friday, Nov. 7th

Houston -1' UCF - Both teams are off crushing losses last week. The Knights were my top play and were a major disappointment at Baylor, while the Cougars were shocked at home by West Virginia, dealing a huge blow to their Big 12 title hopes. UCF needs two more wins for bowl eligibility.

MEMPHIS -3' Tulane - This line has dropped from -6'! I haven't seen any injury news, YET, but the Green Wave were blown out at UTSA last week and now hit the road again to face a Tigers team that's been a money maker all season (8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS, including 3-0 at home). Tulane is out to avenge last season's 34-24 loss at home, but they're just 1-3 ATS and ITS (in the stats) on the road, and there's a huge distraction here with the Jon Sumrall coaching rumors. I'd be willing to bet he'll be gone after the end of the season. 

USC -14' Northwestern - The Wildcats are off a bye, but this is BY FAR their biggest test since the Oregon game (34-14 loss). The Trojans escaped Nebraska with a win to keep their CFP hopes alive, but they're on a short week here, and are 0-2 ATS as double digit chalk vs Big Ten foes. Northwestern is 4-1 SU and ATS, and 5-0 ITS in its' last five games, and will try to control the clock with their run game. This one won't be a gimme for USC.

Thoughts, opinions and insights are always welcome here. Saturday action later. 

@Boisestateand8

 USC will find a way for NW to keep it close.  

I can rarely enjoy their games.  

UTSA -- 3 TO's (fumbles) killed them and 10 penalties hurt in UNT game ... and UNT had 5 TO's vs USF -- so stats are somewhat misleading  -- 

@BoatRace

 That's true but USF also had 3 TO in that game so they were +2 in TO. They still rolled up 580 yards of offense. 

Saturday, Nov. 8th - early games

Indiana -14' PENN ST. - The Hoosiers hit the road again following a 55-10 blowout win at Maryland. These guys are relentless under Curt Cignetti, having been outscored in the fourth quarter just one time, and that was the opener vs. ODU. Since then they've won the final stanza by a score of 79-15. The Nittany Lions hung with Ohio St. for a while last week, but in their last five games they're 0-5 SU and ITS and just 1-4 ATS. They won't win this but they MIGHT cover.

WEST VIRGINIA -6' Colorado - Freshmen QBs square off in this one. It seems like a big number, but the Buffaloes look like they've thrown in the towel.

Smu -10' BOSTON COLLEGE - The Mustangs are one of five teams with one loss in the ACC race, behind first place Virginia. They're off an overtime upset win over Miami, but must avoid a letdown with Louisville on deck and BC playing their Red Bandana game. 

Georgia -9' MISSISSIPPI ST. - Georgia has trailed in the first quarter in five of six SEC games, being outscored 52-17, and they've trailed at the half in four of those (tied 10-10 with Florida last week) AND all five games have been decided by ten points or less. Missy St. is 5-4 and could easily be 8-1. They've been a cash cow going 8-1 ATS, including 4-0 at home. UGA is off a hard fought win over Florida with Texas on deck and this won't be an easy out in Starkville, with the home team ending a long 16 game losing streak vs. the SEC last week at Arkansas. Woof!

TEXAS TECH -10' Byu -  The Cougars are undefeated and off a bye, but this will be their toughest test of the season. BYU gets RB L.J. Martin (789 yards rushing, 6.0 YPR) back from injury, but he'll be going up against one of the top defenses in the country. This line seems a mite steep, but with QB Behren Morton in the lineup (he missed the loss at Arizona St.) none of the Red Raiders' games have been close. BYU will have to play clean in this one to have a chance.

Ohio St. -29' PURDUE - I'm not overthinking this one. Buckeyes will win this by however much they want to.