NCAA FOOTBALL WEEK 3

Week 3:

Miami Oh +17

Boston College +29

Duke -19

New Mexico -1.5

BYU +8.5

Syracuse -2

South Alabama +8

SUNJ- Rutgers -4

WVU ML -103

FCS Games Ill be looking to play:

Northern Colorado +49.5

North Dakota +22.5

Temple -28

-Wofford (FCS vs FCS)

-Idaho St + UNI over (FCS vs FCS)

25-25 YTD...

WEEK 2:

7-13...DISASTER...0-5 in totals...never been done before by me. FAU, up 10-0. 5 total first downs in the 2nd half. cannot move the ball...CMU up 14 with 5 minutes left...double back door. just a fucking disaster weekend...
Eastern Michigan +21
Syracuse -20
UTSA + Texas State over 62 never had a chance no pace and UTSA Slowed this thing way down after F. Harris was hurt...line closed at 66.5
Tulane + Ole Miss over 61.5  17 points the first three drives and the suprising thing to me was how little success ole miss had in this contest against tulane D. line closed at 66.5
Air Force -13.5 -120 sam hou 2-0 ATS with 300 total offensive yards this season and 3 points...AF had very little success running the ball. 
UTEP ML  fugg me...awful bet. awful team.

App State +19 -113  Loot...wire to wire cover
*FAU -4.5 2 unit play
California +7   crime they didnt win. squandered every chance in the redzone they had...hope Ott is not out long.
North Texas -11 -118   awful defense...wasnt suprised they were scoring...but was shocked that UNT could not stop FIU...like, no resistance whatsoever against an offense that finished a game with 4 pass yards and played an FCS team and had 6 rushing yards. and moved the ball for 591 against the mean grean defense. 
Virginia +7.5 -112
Arkansas State + Memphis over 58.5 -104   arksansas State pathetic performance once again. memphis no pace...no up tempo game like in years past
Michigan + UNLV over 56  michigan just no  desire to pour it on here. line closed at O/U 59.5. didnt matter. 
Georgia Southern -6 -130
UCONN Moneyline +133 .5u   holy cow, horrific performance by UCONN...awful. 
Southern Miss +31.5 -113 .5u   bad...and FSU running onside kicks up 21-3 said everything...just a bad look. 
VT + Purdue over 45 -114 .5u    7 hour weather delay...17-17 at half...one fucking score the rest of the way

KU ML -152. .7u

*FCS PLAY: NEVADA -6 +227  .44U TO WIN 1U  took a tiny shot...ended up being a turd

*FCS PLAY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7   up 42-28 with 5 minutes left...blew it... bad pass D

Futures Portfolio Update 

From way back in the summer when posted  

RSW:

* western Michigan under 4.5 -200

   1-1  +29 again this week. loss loading

*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120

   1-1  close win against UNH...blowout loss expected next

*North Texas under 6.5 -120.

   0-2 and no wins in sight. this team is in trouble

*East Carolina under 5.5 -150

*East Carolina under 6.5 -190. BIG

   0-2 @ Appy state next. hard to see them pulling the upset.

*South Alabama under 8-130.

   1-1 with oklahoma state road trip this weekend. huge game for them, and for this RSW play

*MTSU under 6.5 +100 

   0-2 as expected but last week game was closer than expected. likely win against FCS bottom feeder next

*San Jose St under 5.5 +120 

   1-2 at toledo tough long road trip for the Spartans.  

*Minnesota under 7.5 -160

   2-0 interesting spot at UNC next. RSW could ride on this game. 

*UTEP over 5.5 -115 BIG

   1-2  team looks lost. fucking disaster and no offensive punch.

*Indiana under 3.5 +140

   1-1  Neutral sight louisville game on deck. they do look tougher

*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150 

   2-1 

*Cal over 4.5 -152

   1-1 should be 2-0 as they outplayed auburn in every way but squandered 5 2nd half possessions ending in the RZ with 0 points. FCS idaho next

*BYU under 5.5 +113

   2-0, at arkansas next before B12 play commences. 

1u UTEP 22-1 to win CUSA. team looks awful on offense. they have to get better at some point right?

1u UTSA +360 to win AAC  hope F. Harris is not hurt badly, they will need him. 

1u FAU +950 to win AAC    could not move the ball against ohio...scarry to think about that. 

1u EMU +790 to win MAC they can really pack it in on defense. amazing performance showing their intestinal fortitude against minnesota

1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC  hard to think this team has anything to be excited about this year...

1.75u Washington +400 win P12  lights out offense  gonna be tough out in the P12

longshots to win their respective conference title

.33u navy 45/1  likely donation middies are really bad

.125u cal 80/1  they are going to be a problem for a lot of foes 

.416u NIU 22/1 + .33u 29/1 (local casino) great team win against BC  then lose to FCS...perfect MAC team.

.125u Texas State 80/1  looks good now  down to 10/1 

I like your plays.  Special mention to the sharp South Alabama find.  I was looking at other games then this popped up.  win or lose S.Ala is sharp ! Love that youre on !

@steponaduck

 not really a blood bath, but bad indeed.  Let's hope you dont get stepped on again Duck!  Good LUck...

Duck:

Like a lot of those! How about a ball control game for BYU and an UNDER there?? 

BOL this week 

@Last2thirst

 I think both offenses may struggle. Arkansas was able to get zero push on Kent state. Nothing. No explosive plays…BYU crappy week 1 offensive performance looks a lot better after seeing what am Houston just did to AF. 

interesting B10 trends early season 

Iowa, michican, Ohio state, Minnesota are each 2-0 under and 2-0 2H under. 

So betting these 4 teams 2-0 under and 2H under you are 16-0 thus far. 

Their team totals are also each 8-0 under

Ohio state vs Indiana/ Y-state

Minnesota against UNL and EMU

Iowa against Utaggs and cyclones

Michigan against ECU and UNLV 

24-0 under clean sweep on these 4

Good luck Duck.  

@steponaduck

i like the plays.  Would you consider Duke -19 to be your best favorite play?   Duke has played some close games with NW the last couple of years.    NW was tied with UTEP at the half 7-7 last week before taking over.   

Do you have any thoughts on Arizona -18 over UTEP or if you think UTEP could be a live dog?

Good Luck this week!  I hope to have a bounce back this week. 

Reliving a bad bet with Air Force -13.5. Sam Houston had no drive at all the whole game. Air Force for what reason decided to Kick FG's on 4th and 1's. They should have easily covered. You'll have games that leave you scratchin your head. 

Week 3:
(Thur)- Navy +15 .6u
(Fri) Army +9
(Fri) Utah State +10

UMASS +8.5
Miami Oh +17
Boston College +29
Duke -19
New Mexico -1.5
BYU +8.5
Syracuse -2
South Alabama +8
Rutgers -4
West Virginia ML -103


FCS Games I'll be looking to play:
North Dakota +22.5
Temple -28
Central Conn. St +28
**-Wofford
**-Idaho St + UNI over
**-Montana State -44
-Princeton -24
-Yale -2
-E. Illinois +11.5

Yeah I like duke alot. we circled this game at the beginning of the season, talking about it, I am not overly scared of the large number. NW is on the road, they stink. Duke is rolling. sure this game could be 31-20...but I think duke scores at least 38-41 with the DUDES they have on offense, and their d is pretty salty too and would be suprised to see NW score more than 17 in this contest. 

remember...against SUNJ they couldnt move the football. 5 first downs in the first 55 game minutes. woeful. 

Week 3:
(Thur)- Navy +15 .6u  last stand with navy. they looked marginally better against wagner but not much. Memphis also did not overly impress, struggling with arky state for some time before it became a laugher. why did they only have 389 yards of offense? 5/16 on third down? scored three TD's in 5 game minutes (one defensive, one a blown coverage) why would memphis not run the football on ark state? suprising here...if navy scores twice they can keep this within the number, but where is the NAVY toughness...i want to see some grit, some intestinal fortitude like we saw with eastern michigan last week. fire off the ball. gash on offense. be solid in the trenches. should be a fun game to watch...anchors aweigh.

(Fri) Army +9 Frank harris is in a walking boot and NOT practicing; large discrepency between him and the back up QB, who came in against texas state and did nothing special. Texas state was live in that game, and put a big time scare into UTSA. army has actually done very well in the series winning in 2019 and 2020 at utsa and competing in an OT thriller last year, losing at home in OT. teams know eachother well, but the handicap for me is that UTSA offense should not be able to stress army defense at all in this contest, without their mobile QB and skill position guys from years prior, how are they a threat to downfield pass, and without that, army can stack the box and plug run lanes. this game should be very low scoring just like the TSU/UTSA game last week after the F. Harris injury. Ill take 9 in this game which; from what I have seen this season with my eyeballs, army can actually win.

(Fri) Utah State +10  another series play here with USU kinda being the AF bugaboo, the last two matchups USU has won as underdogs. AF has snoozed throughthe first part of their schedule up to this point (if they havent sleepwalked, bad bad sign for them). AF has very little to be excited about so far on offense this season, I mean are you kidding me ONE explosive rush against SHSU (yes, fairly decent defense we know) but you are the AF acadamy, the best rushing attack in the country, and you have ONE explosive rush? bizarre. just dont forsee USU swiss cheese defense (or actually maybe its NOT...check the intestinal fortitude shown by USU after blinking and being down 14-0 against iowa on the road...shut the crappy hawkeyes out for back to back quarters!!!) just feel like this is too much for cooper legas and crew who are gaining confidence, have series history of being competitive on the field here, and have a great chance to win against an AF team that has not found their footing up to this point. 

UMASS +8.5  - EMU great situational dog play showing great pride on the goalline saturday night...talk about a max effort play from that defensive front 7. but now they are back to being a home fave, where they have struggled, and they could not stop the dynamic offense howard runs, so why should they be able to stop/contain or limit umass in this game? umass off a drubbing at auburn and then was fairly competitive against miami oh in a game delayed 5 hours due to weather. but If im EMU, I am concerned about the max effort given and they STILL cannot get off the field on 3rd down. their defense has been out there so much, and in their first two games they are allowing 15/29 3rd down conversions, and have given up 500 rushing yards on 100 rush attempts in just two games. they have to be gassed physically. that is alot of physical plays and tackling in 2 games, and in a game where EMU would have to win by 2 scores, I am not sure their defense is going to be able to shut down the UMASS offense. they could, but I dont think they will necessarily. 

Miami Oh +17- ok i will bite. rivalry game, miami oh spirited performance last game, cincy just waxed pitt...but maybe miami ohio found something offensively last week, and them mailing it in and waiving the white flag against Miami FL doesnt look so bad now after the drubbing miami FL just put on A&M. now the hawks come to the rivalry game with cincy, why cant they compete in this game and have a chance at the end? cincy has lost a ton, and what i have seen of them i am not exceptionally impressed with. was their win over pitt more good cincy, or bad phil jercovic? not certain either way, but I dont know that this game is a blowout. I would have made the line around 11...

Boston College +29 bc, red bandanna game. max effort, spirited play, in memory of welles crowther. pull up the google webs if you are unfamiliar with it. now...to the game. hurricane lee is going to make way around 8am eastern on satruday. wind up to 81 MPH is possible and likely. two Massachusetts buddies I have say it is going to be grotesque in the northeast. I hope the game is played, as scheduled. the weather and circumstances really help BC. the line was 29, and weather has seen the total come down to 47.5...line still shows 25.5-26.5. i think if the wind and rain are a factor, which they should be during a hurricane, bc can muddy the game up enought to remain competitive. 

more thoughts coming later on these matchups. 
Duke -19
New Mexico -1.5
BYU +8.5
Syracuse -2
South Alabama +8
Rutgers -4
West Virginia ML -103

I think UTEP has to get better play calling and better execution. I would challange the big/physical offensive line (which we havent seen much big-ness and physicality from) to get their head out of their azz and start playing pissed off-like. get off your ass, move around, mano E mano...all of the acronyms. and QB play has to be better. Gavin hardison has not played well and his decision making seems poor in the clutch. 

now regarding the game, I was hoping for 22.5 to back UTEP, and I am not in the habit of playing arizona as a large fave, they are off a max effort roady at miss state losing in OT, in heartbreaking fashion where they had 5 turnovers. frankly, why does jacob cowing only have 68 yards receiving this season? in 2 games? he is so explosive and the fact that he is not getting pass receptions down field is concerning, as is the decision making by QB delauria (Wazzu transfer). If Utep plays with high intensity and emotions feed off turnovers, they can compete in this game and lurk for a while, as NAU did. i mean, 14-3 NAU driving, down to the 4-yard line, cannot score on the goal to go situation, and then blocked FG the other way, 21-3 rather than 14-0. than punt TD punt TD and bam, its done. could have been 14-10, instead 35-3...that quick. 

I mean, NAU controlled the clock and gained yards on AZ, so in a game that saw 10 possessions total where nau kept the first downs 22-18 and won the TOP 35-25, they had a plan to shorten the game and try to keep it close. all hell broke loose after the blocked FG return 93 yards the other way...so I dont know. 

things would have to go perfect for UTEP to be able to win...and i fear they quit last week. punt, touchdown, int, touchdown, downs, touchdown, downs, touchdown...it was brutal man. their team looked really dejected, and I hope for more from them this week 

UTEP is a team that can MUDDY it up and keep control of possession. hard to win a game by 3 TDs when you might only get 8 possessions. I think the score could be closer than +17.5-18 or whatever...just not a bet right now. I would not lay these points with AZ 

@steponaduck

I feel about the same with UTEP. Their coach is still a bafoon, but if they can ever play a clean game, I think they can cover some of these big spreads. In their last two FBS games UTEP has had 6 turnovers to their opponents 0. With the style they play, that won't get it done against anybody, especially a P5 opponent. I don't think I'm going to start playing on UTEP again until they get back home. They always seem to be a different team when they are playing in El Paso.

Week 3:
(Thur)- Navy +15 .6u
(Fri) Army +9
(Fri) Utah State +10

UMASS +8.5
Miami Oh +17
Boston College +29
Duke -19
New Mexico -1.5
BYU +8.5
Syracuse -2
South Alabama +8
Rutgers -4
West Virginia ML -103
Wyoming +30.5
Northern Illinois +11.5

Round Robin Parlay (4s/5s/6s)
Missouri ML
Buffalo ML
UMASS ML
ECU ML
Charlotte ML
UNLV ML

7 Team RR above 6 + BYU ML


FCS Games I'll be looking to play:
North Dakota +22.5
Temple -28
Central Conn. St +28
**-Wofford
**-Idaho St + UNI over
**-Montana State -44
-Princeton -24
-Yale -2
-E. Illinois +11.5
-Monmouth/Campbell under
-New Hamp/Dartmouth under
-Yale/HC under
-Rhode Island/Maine under
-Bryant/Brown under

   Anchors aweigh   

fun game so far. 

@steponaduck

 Thanks. I like that you have a lot of eyes on these games.

I tend to go by analytics.

I said I retired to watch more but find myself busy with other types of projects haha

Cheers

Week 3:
(Thur)- Navy +15 .6u
(Fri) Army +9
(Fri) Utah State +10

UMASS +8.5
Miami Oh +17
Boston College +29
Duke -19
New Mexico -1.5
BYU +8.5
Syracuse -2
South Alabama +8
Rutgers -4
West Virginia ML -103
Wyoming +30.5
Northern Illinois +11.5
Colorado state +24 -113

Parlays:
BC +29/under 56 2/1
BC +21.5/ under 56 4/1
BC +14.5/under 56 6/1
BC +8.5/under 56 +1021

Round Robin Parlay (4s/5s/6s)
Missouri ML
Buffalo ML
UMASS ML
ECU ML
Charlotte ML
UNLV ML

7 Team RR above 6 + BYU ML


FCS Games I'll be looking to play:
North Dakota +22.5
Idaho +17.5
Temple -28
Central Conn. St +28
**-Wofford
**-Idaho St + UNI over
**-Montana State -44
-Princeton -24
-Yale -2
-E. Illinois +11.5

weather related plays
-Monmouth/Campbell under
-New Hamp/Dartmouth under
-Yale/HC under
-Bryant/Brown under

ok ill bite with Colorado state at +24...lets see how the buffs handle being a nearly 4td fave

Ducky.

LETS GO ARMY