NCAA Bowl Ponderings and Plays Thread

Let's get this party started! Got these in early, maybe too early depending on line moves. Flying out to L.A. later today for the bowl game.

4* Army +6 over Navy - This has always been a stand alone game. I don't know why the powers that be decided to start the bowl season early, but whatever. In the 11 previous years that Jeff Monken has been HC at Army the underdog in this series has gone 8-3 ATS, and only three of those 11 meetings have been decided by more than seven points, including last season's 31-13 Navy win as a six point dog. In the two previous instances of the victor winning by more than a TD they lost SU and ATS the following year. It's also worth noting that over the last four seasons the Black Knights have been money earners playing away from West Point, compiling an 18-7-1 ATS record, including 5-1 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen have been a money burning 1-5 ATS as chalk this season. The one key common opponent each team has faced this year is the other service academy, Air Force. Both teams beat the Flyboys by a field goal. Army had the better team last year and lost. With all due respect to Blake Horvath, I think this year the Black Knights turn the tables on their rivals.

3* Boise St. +9 over Washington - The Broncos played one of their best games of the season last week in dispatching UNLV for the MWC championship in QB Maddux Madsen's first game back in over a month. In order to have a chance in this game Boise has to play clean. In losses to Oregon and Penn St. last season, and USF and Notre Dame this year, turnovers, idiotic penalties and special teams breakdowns were the difference. They actually outgained three of those opponents and were only outgained by 74 yards in the 28-7 loss to the Irish. As for the Huskies under Jedd Fisch, they're not exactly road warriors. They've gone 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS over the past two years outside the state of Washington. No question UW is the bigger, stronger, faster team. But are they the more motivated team? We'll see. Boise was given up for dead after Madsen's injury but are riding a wave of momentum heading into the first bowl game of the season. They should be at least able to keep it close.

Boise state must be your squad right? Jc 

Yes indeed! And here's an update on that game:

LT Kage Casey, BSU's best offensive linemen, has bailed on his team to prepare for the NFL draft, after declaring in an interview last week that he intended to play! He's the first player in Bronco history to do so.  I'm not backing out of my bet, but this pisses me off!

@Boisestateand8

Off topic, but my son is a pilot with Delta. He loves visiting Boise and BSU. He Face times me as he walks the campus and visits the venues.

Good Luck on your plays Boise..

GL today 

@Base_Knocks 

 @Skware 

 @D-Town 

 @Leroy11 

 @Fuse 

4* Army +6 Thought this one might actually go over the point total for a change. Other than that it went pretty much as I called it.

3* Boise St. +9 - weak effort from my Broncos tonight. They made UW look better than they are. 

Veterans Bowl

Jacksonville St. -1' Troy - I considered taking the Gamecocks when they were getting three and a hook. Seems like they should run all over the Trojans' swiss cheese run defense. But Jax St. ran all over Kennesaw St. in the C-USA title game and lost, 19-15 so there's that. Bottom line, the value got sucked out of this game with the line move. Pass.

One observation I made from attending the L.A. Bowl; nobody gives a shit about bowl games anymore. Roughly 23,000 fans showed up in a 70,000 seat stadium. It was a dead crowd to say the least. And apparently opening the transfer portal after the bowl season isn't keeping kids from opting out. As far as I know the Huskies were able to keep their team intact, but one of Boise's team captains, LT Kage Casey, opted out to get ready for the NFL. It was also revealed that QB Maddux Madsen reinjured his foot in the MWC title game. I should've backed out of my bet, but, oh well. I'm all for adopting the FCS 24 team playoff model and scrapping the bowl system entirely. Let the higher seeded teams host the games. Screw the bowls. End of rant.

@Boisestateand8

 Unlike most bowl matchups, plenty of fans will care about the Troy/Jax State game. 

The college football landscape has changed with NIL and kids that will be on the transfer portal isn’t going to give 100% in bowl games.

Agreed! They should scrap the. Owl system and just do top 20 playoff.

I'm watching the line. It's up to Jax St. -3 now! If it hits 3' I might snap the rubber band and take Troy.

@7272

Number one rule of sports betting: Never, ever force a play! I wish I would've taken the Gamecocks last week at +3'. That line is long gone and it ain't coming back.

Yeah I was gonna grab Jax this morning @ +1.5 -115 but waited too long. Now it's -3.5 -105 so I gotta hope for an ingame line. GL tonight 

Wow. Cam Cook in street clothes tonight. Don't know if he's opted out or is hurt, but what a burn for anyone on Jax St.  This kinda bullshit pretty much cinches it for me. With a very few possible exceptions I won't be betting on any bowl games. The CFP games are the only games that truly matter, and that's where my focus will be. I'm out until Friday.

Technically… these are professional athletes… with seemingly lots of free…. Ha… free agency.            Free ……agent.   Hmmmm.   Not so much   Losing the bowls is sad to me… I’m 61 now… lots of change going on…. 

As Dan Rather used to say "FEA" ... somewhat understand the opt outs but there is no reason or excuse to withhold that information -- publish it -- if the guy is out he's out and not like he made decision at game time ... scoundrels and crooks 

Wow, more bowl insanity! Louisiana has gone from a 3' point favorite to a 1' point dog to Delaware. As of two hours ago I haven't seen any opt out news but something is sure haywire with this big of a line move.