After going 1-4 last week, I decided to scrap my system. I thought I was on to something after looking at 4 criteria that I believed the market undervalued. They were:
1. Lean on teams with quarterbacks who completed >70% of their passes, since accuracy matters when trying to get a late game backdoor cover.
2. Lean on teams who are able to hold their opponents to less than 250 yards in any games during the season. If your defense is ass, you'll never be able to hold a team to under that total.
3. Total yards of offense minus actual points scored. Example, if you get X amount of total offense, it should equate to Y amount of points. If there is a large disparity between X and Y, lean on the teams that have not produced expected value of points, since the market weighs points more heavily than yards gained (even though yards gained is more indicative of offense potency)
4. Fumbles lost.....fumbles happen, but recovery of fumbles is essentially random and the defense only recovers 50% of the fumbles on average. So if a team is losing more than 50% of fumbles, it would suggest - via mean reversion - that under normal circumstances, their final score total would be better had they recovered the fumbles instead of having a turnover.
So anyway, I'm scrapping the system for this season and will come up with a new one next year. Good luck to all.
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