Been a while since I’ve posted on covers on either forum. I’m down on posted plays on the NFL forum but , here on this forum my record stands at 5-3 + 3,000. Stop posting because, I know folks look at both forums and didn’t want anyone to lose any more money following me. But , you know how it goes , when you don’t post you’re always winning and that’s what we will do today. Wrong team is favored here today, I don’t care about the HFA. Mia is the overall better team on defense and offense. A&M only holds a small edge in the SOS. My numbers have the Canes winning by 4 or more pts. F+ ratings Mia is + 1.64 compared to A&M + 1.58. When I see that in a small favorite type of game and the dog is better in possession efficiency, pts per drive , available line yards , drive success and field position, the dog almost always covers and wins outright at a very high percentage. Miami has the 4th best offensive passing block rate in the nation, where A&M has the 20th best defensive rush rate. Those comparisons seem close, but in a game like this, you’ll see that those numbers aren’t that close at all. Malachi Tony will be the X factor today. He’s a stud. Canes have two of the top defensive linemen in the nation. M. Reed under pressure only has a 55.5 % passer rating. He will be uncomfortable all game long. He’s a interception thrower when pressured consistently. “ PFF “ EPA rated canes 0.06 running, A&M rated 0.11. A&M can run the ball efficiently but, Miami rates @ a 92.9% in run defense nationally. EPA per pass: Miami + 0.26 compared to + 0.12 big difference. Miami + 3 - 115 3,450/3,000 & ML 250/562. GL to all
back 
on your play either way & Happy Holidays 
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