This week I gave you all The Arizona Cardinals to win SU vs the Cowboys in the NFL. Making my POY 2-0.
Today in NCAAF the POY goes to:
PURDUE +28.5
REASON:
This is not a wager on the relative talent of the two rosters; that would be a fool's errand. Ohio State is a No. 1 juggernaut, a veritable NFL-scouting combine masquerading as a college team, and their dominance is well-documented.
This is a wager on situational dissonance. It's a play against market perfection, a bet on a confluence of factors that creates value in an otherwise lopsided matchup. The line of 28.5 points presents a significant buffer for a specific, and very likely, game script.
This game is the definition of a "lookahead" or "flat" spot. The 8-0 Buckeyes are sandwiched between emotional conference wins and the looming, season-defining rivalry stretch. Ohio State's objective today is not to win by 30; it's to win by 24, avoid catastrophic injuries, and get the backups on the field by the fourth quarter.
While narrative can be a flimsy crutch, the location at Ross-Ade Stadium is a known X-factor for Ohio State. This is the "House of Horrors," a place where the Buckeyes have historically played uncharacteristically sloppy football, including the infamous 2018 upset. For Purdue, this is their Super Bowl—a home game against the No. 1 team in the nation. Expect maximum effort and an aggressive game plan, which is all we need from a 28.5-point underdog.
The most critical point is the path to the cover. Ohio State's primary strength is its No. 1-ranked defense, which allows a minuscule ~6.9 points per game. This suffocating defense, paired with a relatively low game total of 48.5, actually helps the underdog cover a massive spread. It makes it harder for Ohio State to do all the scoring themselves.
The likely script sees Ohio State's defense dominate while their offense builds a comfortable lead, perhaps 31-7 or 34-10, by the late third quarter. At that point, Ryan Day will pull his Heisman-contending starters to protect them. The entire fourth quarter will feature OSU's second-string offense running the ball to kill the clock. This creates a prime opportunity for Purdue, still fighting, to mount a "garbage time" drive against OSU's reserves and punch in a meaningless touchdown, turning a 34-7 loss into a 34-14 cover.
We are not asking Purdue to be competitive. We are asking them not to lose by five full touchdowns, and the game's low-scoring, defensive-minded profile provides the perfect environment for a backdoor cover.
Pick*
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