Indiana vs Illinois, this should be a great game. Cignetti is such a perfectionist and it shows. Demands a full 60 minutes from his players.
Bielema has a solid team that looks to be peaking this year. And they too play solid football.
IMO, if these two played 10 times the record would be 5-5. Talent wise I would favor Illini. Illini has been tested by Duke on the road. Indy yet to be tested.
Indy runs the ball better so far and I like the better rushing team. But......Indy defense is 120th in the country giving up an average 5.6 yds/carry. And that was all Old Dominion in 1st game so could be they needed a game to find themselves. Hard to judge playing Indiana State and Kennesaw State.
Pretty sure I'll skip this game and look for inplay opportunities.
Please review my analysis and provide any feedback...Good luck!
ARMY -1.5 north texas
We all remember the blockbuster movie hit “Black Knight” starring Martin Lawrence. Today’s Black Knights from West Point have nothing to fear when the not so Mean Green of North Texas travel up the Hudson. West Point is getting disrespected because they lost in OT to an FCS school, Tarleton State. Now don’t be so fast to throw shade on Tarleton State. They are 4-0 and a top 5 FCS school, and likely capable of beating half the teams in FBS. What is more indicative of the strength of this Army team was their defeat of Kansas State on the road. Now K State has had their problems winning games, but all of their other two losses were very close ones to undefeated Arizona and undefeated Iowa State. If Arizona, Iowa State or Kansas State had a home game against North Texas, would you even question the fact that each of these teams would beat the Mean Green?
The Black Knights have played a couple of games this season, and their approach is as subtle as a tank parade. They have run the ball on a staggering 83% of their plays. This isn't just a strategy; it's a statement. They're telling their opponent, "We're going to grind you into a fine powder, and there's nothing you can do about it." The result of this ball-control mastery? Army has dominated time of possession, holding the ball for an average of 38 minutes per game. That means North Texas’s offense will have fewer possessions than a Kardashian has degrees. North Texas is an empty suit…they act like they are explosive on offense but they forget to play defense. Army had a bye week to prepare for this game. North Texas is still strutting about their victory over the Cougars and have paid zero attention to stopping the triple option.
Now, let's turn to the "Mean Green" from North Texas. Yes they beat Washington State and put up a big number, but they were the beneficiary of 5 turnovers in that game. They gave up 30 points to Western Michigan in a 33-30 victory, but the Broncs scored a total of 6 points in their other two games. In their first two games, opponents have had little trouble moving the ball on the ground against UNT, gaining over 400 yards on 80 carries for 5.0 yards per carry. That's a triple-option buffet for the Army offense. If Army gets its typical 70-80 offensive plays in this game, they could very easily get over 500 yards rushing against a defense that's softer than a mayonnaise sandwich on Wonder Bread. Defensively, UNT has allowed 247 rushing yards and 175 passing yards in two games (vs Lamar and at Western Michigan), for a total of ~?422 yards/game allowed. In 2024, UNT was among the worst in scoring defense (~?34.2 points allowed per game) and total defense (yards allowed ~?460.5/game).
The Mean Green won't have luck running the ball against the disciplined Army defense. Kansas State only managed 74 yards total. North Texas hasn’t played anyone yet and there is no reason to expect that they will do any better running the ball against Army than K State did. You know what happens when you can't run the ball on the road and have the ball for only 22 minutes a game? You lose… that's what happens.
Defensively, North Texas is going to have all kinds of problems stopping Army. The Black Knights have only one lost fumble so far this season, so clearly their ball carriers have good ball control skills. This means North Texas can't rely on turnovers to save them. Historical matchups also favor Army, as they have won six of their last eight games against North Texas. After Saturday it will be 7 of 9. Big win for Army.
typically half the bettor are correct and half are incorrect. I think the public is infatuated with the Mean Green offense and the big number they put up on Washington State, but the Cougars suck and they had 5 turnovers. I go back to my original point...if North Texas was playing at Kansas State, Arizona or Iowa State, they wouldn't be favored. Army is getting disrespected.
INDIANA -3 illinois
Let’s not sugarcoat this: Illinois may be undefeated, but heading into Bloomington this Saturday, they’re about to get metaphorically stranded on a tropical island—without a radio, coconut phone, or a game plan. Because when it comes to this Big Ten matchup, Indiana isn’t just the better team—they’re the Skipper steering this ship, and Illinois is Gilligan, fumbling with the playbook like it’s a bamboo fishing net.
Indiana is ranked 12th in the Massey Composite. Illinois? 15th.
Sagarin Ratings: Indiana 83.77 > Illinois 80.87
Yards per game: Indiana 591.7 (3rd in the nation), Illinois 405.7 (meh).
Points per game: Indiana 52.0 (7th), Illinois 45.0 (not bad, not Mendoza).
Defense: Indiana allows 7.7 ppg. Illinois allows 7.3 ppg — but the Hoosiers’ have played the tougher schedule.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza isn’t just cooking—he’s laughing at defenses with a torch made of touchdown passes. He’s 72% accurate with 9 TDs, 0 picks. Meanwhile, Illinois’ Luke Altmyer? Solid. Respectable. But Mendoza is running the show like Thurston Howell III owns the stadium and bet his yacht on it.
Indiana’s receiving corps is putting on a variety show — Omar Cooper Jr. (299 yds, 4 TDs) is the Ginger of the group: glamorous, unstoppable, and always open. Elijah Sarratt is the Mary Ann — reliable, sweet, and somehow still torching defenders for 3 more TDs. Toss in Khobie Martin and Kaelon Black in the backfield averaging 6.9 yards per carry, and you’ve got a full cast of offensive stars. The real reason I love the Hoosiers is their defense. Indiana’s D has allowed just 105.3 passing yards per game—6th in the nation. They haven’t given up a single passing TD this season. Their run defense? Allowing just 115.3 ypg. Compare that to Illinois, who’s giving up 193.7 passing yards per game.
Tack this on….Indiana is at home, with momentum, talent, and stats all on their side. Illinois has played well, but against cupcakes softer than Mrs. Howell. Indiana State and Western Michigan are great… if you're building a highlight reel for a backup punter. Lovey could probably start on the D-Line of those teams.
The line is Indiana -3? Please. That’s like betting the Professor can’t invent a lie detector using a coconut and a volleyball (he actually did).
Indiana is: Better statistically, Better coached, Home, and only laying a field goal. Laying the wood on the Hoosiers!
Like Army - also like the Over in that game fwiw.
Illinois - if I bet the game I will be taking Illinois and the points - they've at least went on the road and been tested somewhat - Indiana has played an Intramural schedule so far (I know they did it last year and we saw what happened).
Don't like Coastal Carolina - they blow ass - not sure I like South Alabama either - that will be a no play for me.
Wyoming interests me - especially getting that many points - certainly won't play Colorado - think the Buffs are in for a really long year - could see Sanders leaving after this year.
Really like Oklahoma as a ML - not sure about the 6' - it will be interesting.
Love your write ups - look at them each week. Good Luck with your plays 
@iamhuge
Nice great write ups and I read them every week too, leaning Army my self , not sure about Indiana bc of the cupcakes they been playing, Wyoming should be able to hang around that 15 point number , but I think Army is your best play, let’s play keep away and pull away to win going away 
Army 38–23
Thanks for the input...I will also be parlaying Oklahoma on the ML with a couple of other home chalk to get even money payday. No way the Sooners lose this game outright...their defense is just too good.
You'll know very early in the game...if North Texas cannot stop Army on the first drive then it's likely we'll see it over and over and over....
The bye week for Army came at a great time as their backup QB was named the starter and has a lot of good practice time to synchronize the option. A couple of their RB's are dinged up as well but for Army it's just plug and play at that position...it's all about the QB, and Hellum looked awesome against K State. North Texas is going to be surprised at the physicality of the Army defense.
OKLAHOMA -4.5 auburn
Remember when Oklahoma was in the Big 12 and defense was optional? Remember when the Boomer Schooner tipped over and crashed. That was friggin hilarious. Brent Venables has changed their tune and now they are a physical defensive team that Barry Switzer would be proud of. Last week, the Sooners held the Temple Owls to 3 points…this was a Temple team that had averaged 48.5 points per game in their previous two contests. Oklahoma held Illinois State to 3 points. Illinois State averaged 41.5 points per game in their other two contests. Oh Yeah…Oklahoma held Michigan to 13 points, a team that averaged 48.5 points in their other two contests. Get the picture? There is every reason to believe that Hugh Freeze’s Tiger offense will be “escorted” out of Norman pronto. Brent Venables? He’s the Soup Nazi. “NO TOUCHDOWNS FOR YOU!”
Let’s not pretend Auburn’s offense is the maestro behind the velvet curtain. Jackson Arnold’s homecoming isn’t going to go well. There is a reason why the Sooners booted him. Auburn ranks 101st in explosive pass rate. While their defense might look stout, they have given up 32 missed tackles in just two games against Baylor and South Alabama. That’s not SEC-level. That’s “Babu Bhatt’s Restaurant” level: nice idea, poor execution.
Even with speedsters like Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton, Auburn's passing game has been shorter than George Costanza when he got out of the pool.
The Auburn passing game is a dink-and-dunk Chuckee Cheese game show. Oklahoma’s John Mateer is out here cooking like he’s got Puddy riding shotgun yelling “Feels like we’re dominating!” Mateer’s racked up 944 yards, 5 TDs, and 9 total touchdowns with a passing game that ranks top-50 in Success Rate and top-40 in Finishing Drives. The guy doesn’t just move the ball — he shoots…and he scores! Oklahoma averages 5.4 points per drive past the 40. That’s not offense — that’s economic stimulus like a Jerome Powell rate cut.
And Auburn’s defense? Ranked outside the top 100 in both rush and pass EPA. Auburn’s tackling grade: 105th. It’s Yada Yada yada.
Oklahoma is 13-0 in its last 13 games as a home favorite.
Auburn is 0-8 in its last 8 road games vs. AP-ranked teams.
OU’s defense: 7-of-41 third downs allowed. That’s 17%.
Sure, the Schooner once tipped over like Kramer in tight jeans — hilarious and tragic. But now? That wagon is rolling downhill with turbo boost, and Auburn is tied to the back like it’s trying to return a fruit basket to Tim Whatley.
This isn’t just about covering -4.5. This is about a team that has rebuilt its identity under Venables faster than George abandoned latex sales. The Sooners are battle-tested with wins over legit offenses. Auburn? They’re walking into a buzzsaw after scraping by Baylor and South Alabama — and still giving up big plays like it’s their job.
Jackson Arnold may have revenge on his mind, but Brent Venables has tape, blitzes, and one of the most disciplined defenses in the country. The only thing Arnold will be throwing Saturday? Tantrums and interceptions. Boomer Sooner, baby. Laying the wood on the home team.
coastal carolina +14 SOUTH ALABAMA
For those who gots ta know…a Chanticleer is a rooster….Yes, Coastal Carolina has looked offensively challenged — but the numbers, like Mr. Spock, tell a more logical story.
Let’s establish the obvious: the Chanticleers are 1-2. They've scored just 13 total points in two blowout losses. The situation is not what it seems.
Against Virginia, they had 254 total yards but lost three fumbles. The turnover bug hit harder than a Klingon headbutt. Against Charleston Southern, they won 13-0 but should've posted warp speed numbers. 384 yards of offense — and, again, three fumbles. Last week vs ECU, they got photon-torpedoed, 38-0. Sounds bad — until you realize they turned the ball over five times. Nine fumbles in three games? That’s not sustainable. That's statistical nonsense.
You know who hasn't beaten an FBS team this season?
That’s right — South Alabama. The Jaguars are 1-2 with their lone win coming against Morgan State. Their resume against real competition?
Lost to Tulane (33-31)
Lost to Auburn (31-15)
That’s the rub. When you’re trying to cover 14.5 points, you can’t focus on your close losses. You have to see how badly you can beat a bad team. I have news for you. FCS Morgan State is complete ass, and South Alabama beat them by only 17 points. The Morgan State Bears put up 340 yards of offense on the Jaguars AND they had 4 turnovers, including 3 lost fumbles. If they had played a clean game, it’s very possible that Morgan State would have defeated South Alabama. The Sagarin ratings have Coastal Carolina rated 11 points better than Morgan State…and that’s why the Chanticleers will keep this one close. South Alabama simply isn’t good enough to cover this spread…they aren’t East Carolina or Virginia….not even close. The Jag defense is giving up 28.3 points per game. That’s more holes than a Romulan peace treaty.
Sure, if you're just looking at the scoreboard, it’s hard to argue that Coastal’s offense needs work. . But look deeper — the yardage numbers are not those of a team incapable of moving the ball. It’s more like Scotty powering up the engines and someone spilling coffee all over the control panel.
In fact, Coastal is averaging nearly 300 yards per game, and RB Dominic Knicely is averaging 7.6 yards per carry. That’s not just efficient — that’s “Warp 9 with stabilizers online.”
Robby Washington leads the team in receiving with 100 yards on just nine catches. The tools are there. They just need to stop leaving the airlock doors open.
Don’t be fooled by Bishop Davenport’s accuracy. This team is not equipped for deep space battle. Consider:
They allow 205.7 rushing yards per game — that ranks bottom 30 in the FBS.
Coastal, for all their turnover chaos, is 134.3 yards per game on the ground, and if they stop self-destructing like a malfunctioning redshirt, that number could jump.
Coastal is +14 underdog. Turnovers are random and often regress to the mean. Coastal is due. South Alabama is 0-1 ATS as a 14+ point favorite. Coastal has outgained expectations in yardage — but just gave the game away with butterfingers.
This game isn’t about Coastal being a powerhouse. It’s about the spread. It’s about overreaction to turnovers. It’s about public perception being warped like a shuttlecraft in a wormhole. Coastal Carolina has been their own worst enemy — but fumble luck always flips. If they clean up the chaos — even a little — they don’t just cover. They make South Alabama sweat like Bones during a tribble quarantine. Coastal will be standing over South Alabama and will say, "He's dead Jim".
Loving the points and the road roosters!
Jackson Arnold's stats were totally padded against Ball State...he is not a deep ball threat which will have Sooner linebackers creeping up to stop the run. You know what happens when you can't run the ball on the road?? You lose...that's what happens. Good luck!
Wyoming +15.5 COLORADO
Is it Primetime in Boulder yet? Waiting for Colorado and Coach Prime to be a top 5 team is like waiting for a drink in Jamaica. There’s a hole in the boat and it’s filling up with turds from Ralphie the Buffalo. The Coach Prime rocket ship is heading off course and Elvis is about to leave the building. Without Shadeur and Shilo, the chances of Coach Prime moving the needle on his give a crap meter are slim and none and slim has left town for this non conference game. In their two games against decent teams, The Buffs weren’t able to score more than 20 points. You can’t cover a 15.5 point spread if you only score 20 points. In their one victory, over Delaware, they did win by 24 points but that score was only 17-7 at halftime and Delaware had 2 turnovers – which contributed to the final score misrepresenting the actual outcome. Deion’s team is confused at quarterback, soft in the trenches, and going in the wrong direction.
Wyoming likes to run the ball. They run it 68% of the time, and they’ve been effective with a 4.3 yards per carry. Their two scat backs are averaging over 7 yards per carry. Against the incredibly tough Utah team, they were able to run consistently and were trailing only 3-0
Colorado is used to hearing “Coach Prime,” but this week, the only “prime” thing they’ll see is Wyoming’s elite defense. The Cowboys rank 13th in EPA per Drive allowed and 16th in EPA per Dropback allowed—which basically means they are pretty stingy. In fact through the first 10 quarters of their season, the Cowboys gave up only 10 points. That’s an average of 1 point per quarter.
If Ryan Staub (QB3 and proud owner of a -0.37 EPA per Dropback) starts again, Wyoming defenders might not even break a sweat. If Kaidon Salter plays? Cool—Wyoming will just pick which inconsistent passer they’d like to terrorize that quarter. The Buffalo O-line is patchwork at best and remember how Shedeur was always running for his life? Nothing has changed, accept now the Buffalo QB isn’t as good.
Yes, Wyoming scores just 15.7 points per game. Yes, they're ranked 121st in scoring. But they returned nine offensive starters from last year, and something’s got to give—especially against a Colorado defense that ranks 115th in Available Yards Allowed and 124th in rush defense. If they don’t score a lot, at least they will shorten the game with moving the chains. That will make it very difficult for Colorado to cover.
Taking all of those points and riding with those Cowboys!
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