NC STATE – 3 virginia
it’s time to hammer NC State -3 like it’s the last buffet plate at a tailgate. The Wolfpack was more than impressive last week, particularly at the QB position and also their defensive ability to stop the run. CJ Bailey just put on a passing clinic against East Carolina: 24-of-34, 318 yards, with plenty of zip on the ball. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack defense kept their offense in business, completely shutting down the ECU run game. ECU had 30 yards on 29 carries. That’s not a typo. That’s a cry for help.
And don’t let the final score fool you — NC State missed two field goals in the 4th quarter. If their freshman kicker had a GPS, they’d have won by 13. Also, the Pirates carded a lucky TD when it caught the Wolfpack out of position while substituting. Hitting a receiver open over the middle, leading to a 79-yard touchdown play near the end of the first half.
Now, about Virginia — yes, they beat Coastal Carolina, but only because Coastal played the game like it was Opposite Day. A 100-yard kickoff return, a blocked punt, and two lucky turnovers? That’s not football, that’s a baby shower and Virginia was the baby, Coastal needs to find a quarterback in hurry…. MJ Morris was worse than Michael Jackson in a GI Hoe factory. He posted a 13.2 QBR, he probably would have had a better day throwing left-handed in a hurricane. You have to like NC State at home with a defense that stuffs the run like a Thanksgiving turkey. Virginia’s not stealing another win — they’re getting stuffed. Seriously, the Wolfpack run defense looks like a fortress made of pure muscle and bad intentions. You know what happens when you can't run the ball on the road? You lose. Plain and simple. The Cavaliers won't get lucky with special teams or turnovers this time. They're going to face a defense that knows how to stop a run and an offense that’s better than their last performance.
Laying the points. Taking the Wolfpack. And then watch the W roll in.
Kansas +6.5 MISSOURI
Betting on Mizzou to cover against Kansas this weekend is like betting on a cat to win at a dog show. That's not just a bad bet; it's a tragic comedy waiting to happen. The spread is Kansas +6.5, but let's be real, that's just a clerical error. The Jayhawks are playing chess while the Tigers are still trying to figure out which end of the ball to throw.
I mean, have you seen Kansas? The Jayhawks are for real. Their quarterback, Jalon Daniels, is a legitimate dude, a certified rock star. He's throwing for 80% completion rate with seven TDs against one interception, and a QB rating of 212! That’s not a typo, that’s a man who could lead a team of garden gnomes to the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Mizzou's quarterback situation is a revolving door of uncertainty. Sure, Beau Pribula had a nice debut against Central Arkansas, but let's not get carried away. Beating Central Arkansas is like winning a footrace in one of those baby crawl races they do at halftime. It tells you nothing.
And let's talk about those stats. Kansas's defense is a brick wall, giving up only 7 points and 180 yards per game. They held Fresno State to 37 rushing yards, while Fresno State then went on to run for 351 yards against Georgia Southern. That's not just a defensive stand; that's a federal crime against offense. Mizzou, on the other hand, had a few nice runs on the "outside zone" against a team that, let's be honest, didn’t have the speed to keep up. If you don’t have speed, your chasing it.
The only thing Missouri has going for it is a home crowd. But with all the hype and history, that crowd is going to be so tense they'll be chewing on their own teeth. They know what's coming. They've seen the future, and it's painted in Jayhawk blue. If you haven’t seen Jalen Daniels yet, get ready for a treat. The guy is a threat to score every time the ball is in his hands. Rock Chalk! I’m LOVING the points here, even if it comes in a backdoor cover. Screw that…Kansas wins this one outright.
WISCONSIN -27.5 mtsu
And if you're scratching your head, thinking "27.5 is a lot of points," then you, my friend, haven't been paying attention to the dumpster fire that is MTSU football. If there is a worse team in football than Middle Tennessee, it’s going to take some digging to find it. Mind you, the Blue Raiders played Austin Peay last week, a good FCS team, but an FCS team nonetheless and they lost by 20 points at home. The Pee hadn't beaten an FBS opponent in a decade. So you’re only looking at Wisconsin, at home, to be 8 points better than Austin Peay to cover this spread. Now it wasn’t that MTSU lost by 20 points that makes you think that this team is complete ass, it’s how they lost. For example:
After this disaster, what did Middle Tennessee’s coach say? “First games provide a lot of things that you look at and scratch your head,” the Middle Tennessee football coach said. “This is a scratch your head night.” “For us tonight it was a struggle, and we really don’t know why that is…..we could not connect the dots.” Seems like he really has command of this ship…and the iceberg ahead is Wisconsin on the road.
The Badgers were completely dominant last week against a team much superior to Middle Tennessee – Miami OH. The Redhawks came into that game with a potent offense and limped away against the stonewall Badger defense, getting shut out 17-0. Miami only managed 7 first downs on the afternoon and only 83 yards passing. What’s worse is that they could only run the ball for 34 yards and 1.5 yards per carry. There is no question that the Badgers are going to bring this same performance this week and shutout Middle Tennessee as well. On the offensive side of the ball, Austin Peay was able to score 34 points and put up 353 yards of offense. It will be a miracle if MTSU can scratch together a first down. They’ll easily punt the ball at least 10 times and likely provide the Badgers with awesome field position – who will likely score on most of those drives, even if Billy Edwards doesn’t play. It doesn't matter if Bucky the Badger himself lines up under center. You've got a Wisconsin team that shuts out a competent FBS opponent, and you've got a Middle Tennessee State team that got its lunch money stolen by an FCS team. Look for the Badgers to score 4 TD’s in the first half and easily salt this one away, with zero…I mean zero chance…of a backdoor cover by Middle Tennessee. This is not unpredictable like Johnny Rodz. Bucky covers at home. The cheese is on the table, and it's a cheddar-sized lock. Laying the 27.5 on Wisconsin.
Herby made a great point when unc got behind in the game. Bringing 70 kids together who don't know each other - no one knows who the leaders of the team are. So players quit on the field without repercussions from the kangaroo court. Belichick doesn't connect with that because he was used to coaching professionals
Just for the record, Miami O had been something like 0-17 last road game 1's and 0-8 ats last 8 road game 1's until Wisc where they covered by half a point. 
Guess who I had?
With that I still agree as Badgers need a blowout in an otherwise brutal schedule.
After researching SHSU in the summer I faded them vs WKU and UNLV. Bearkat offense is just OK, it was the pieced together defense that caught my eye and reason to fade. And they played offenses that are built to score often. Not playing the Hawaii game myself as Rainbows will need their starting qb, IMO.
LSU – 37.5 louisiana tech
Forget what your lying eyes told you about the LSU-Clemson game and the defensive battle in mock Death Valley. Coach Kelly didn't want to show his full hand, knowing that the real carnage was to be reserved for a far less deserving opponent. LSU controlled the game on the road and were ecstatic with the “W”. No need for style points. They will be in ample supply this weekend. While Texas and Bama have fallen, it’s basically a two way race between Georgia and LSU to be the bull of the woods in the SEC. QB Garrett Nussmeier is now the odds on favorite to win the Heisman and he is going to need some stats to open up a gap in that race, as long as the Tigers keep winning. The only way to pad the stats is to put up points, and that is going to be bad news for Louisiana Tech. They don’t have Terry Bradshaw to save them.
The Brian Kelly era has seen a patsy face them in Death Valley every year in week 2 and history says they make sure they have offensive fireworks to send the fans home happy. They have averaged 60 points per game in each of those games, so one would expect at least 50 on the scoreboard this year. What’s different this year is LSU’s defense is the trademark of this team. The way they had Klubnik running for his Clemson life was truly a thing of beauty. The Bayou Tigers held the former Heisman trophy candidate to only 230 yards passing on 19/38 and zero TD’s. Even more significant was that Clemson only had 31 yards rushing on 20 carries to get to their 10 points. If laughable to think that QB Trey Kukuk for LA Tech will do any better, as he only had 130 yards of passing against SE Louisiana last week. Against LSU's defensive front, which generated 4 sacks and countless pressures on a mobile QB like Clemson's, Kukuk will be playing a game of run for your life! He will change his name from Kukuk to Koo Koo. No way that the Bulldogs score more than 7 points this weekend. It’s likely they don’t even find the end zone. So if LSU scores 50 and Louisiana Tech scores 7, ta da – that’s a cover.
The Turnover Differential: Lucky Louisiana Tech came away with a +3 turnover margin in their game last week, meaning their game against an FCS opponent was a lot closer than the final score might lead you to believe. Without the turnovers, they probably would have won by only a touchdown.
Back to Garrett Nussmeier. In the "restrained" offense against a top-tier defense, he still threw for 230 yards. When Nussmeier faces a defense that gave up over 100 passing yards to a team that probably schedules its games around harvest festivals, he will be throwing for 400, remember he’s on the hunt for the Heisman. He’s not going to stop. LSU's Rushing Game: Caden Durham rumbled for 74 yards against a ferocious Clemson defensive line. LSU's offensive line, with its five-star recruits and its legendary S.E.C. pedigree, will be pushing the Louisiana Tech's defensive front into the parking lot.
The Bulldogs' offense, meanwhile, will go three-and-out many times, and Nussmeier will have ample opportunity to find the end zone with a short field. With LSU pitching a shutout into the 2 half, the fear of the backdoor cover on this bet is minimal. Once LSU hits 50 points, you can click off the TV and take it to the pay window. Laying the big wood on the GEAUX Tigers!
Here's a stat I love which I am weighting heavily in my handicapping early in the season:
Virginia’s 48 points came off just 467 total yards – that’s 9.8 yards per point. You know what that means? Short fields, defensive scores, and unsustainable explosive plays. NC State’s 24 points came from 423 yards for 17.6 yards per point. That’s sustainable, methodical football against better competition.
@iamhuge
The books have the team total set at 36.5. Your thought process here about a complete shut down of Middle Tennessee would surely support an easy cover.
You said it will be over by halftime. The FQ is 7.5 with a total of 9.5. This would suggest a Wisconsin 10-0 (if defense is dominate) then the FH line is 16.5. Which means they only need score one TD in the 2nd quarter.
We shouldn’t sleep on Danny Oneil stepping in for injured Edward’s.
Head coach Luke Fickell revealed that O’Neil received only about 15% of the practice snaps leading up to the opener against Miami (OH). Despite that, he stepped in cold and delivered: completing 12 of 19 passes for 120 yards, throwing a touchdown, and adding a rushing score. His biggest problem was holding onto the ball too long. To produce that kind of performance with such limited preparation says everything about his readiness and football IQ. With a full week of reps, his ceiling is even higher.
You might be on to something here with Wisconsin. Seems like a let’s collect our paycheck and get the heck out of Wisconsin ASAP for Middle Tennessee.
Very sound reasoning and input....for some reason MTSU is just really horrible. If you watch the Youtube video of their coach after the game it really makes you wonder if he's qualified at all. They had a very very demoralizing loss to Austin Peay and Wisconsin is known for their physicality. It's going to be a very very easy game for MTSU to quit on this weekend.
Keep an eye on Wolfpack TE Justin Joly, who caught 43 passes for 661 yards and four touchdowns last season.
He's getting tons of pre-season press, because he is a difference maker: first-team all-ACC as well as on the watch list for the John Mackey Award (best tight end in college football) and Biletnikoff Award (nation’s best receiver).
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