Merry Christmas Covers forum! Here's some info on the game I've found around the web and a bit lengthy but a good read.
This from SI.com:
The oddsmakers all had Cal as a slight favorite as of Thursday morning (December 11). BetMGM, DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook all have the Golden Bears as 1.5-point favorites, and FanDuel makes Cal a 2.5-point favorite at the moment. Today were seeing Hawaii now favored 1.5 or so.
Cal (7-5) played three games against teams that were ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings at the time of the game, and the Bears won two of them. Cal beat No. 15 Louisville on the road and topped No. 21 SMU at home in the teams’ final regular season game. Cal was very much in its game against No. 15 Virginia before an interception in the final minute ended Cal’s bid.
Meanwhile, Hawaii (8-4) faced no team that was ranked when the game was played. And the best team the Rainbow Warriors faced was Arizona, which finished with a 9-3 record and a No. 17 ranking and beat Hawaii 40-6 early in the season.
Hawaii finished tied for fifth in the Mountain West Conference with a 5-3 conference mark, and although the ACC was not particularly strong this season, it still was considered better than the Mountain West.
According to the ESPN analytics, Hawaii has a 59.7% chance to win the Hawaii Bowl while Cal has just a 40.3% chance. Cal was 3-3 in road games this season, and that comes with caveats. One of the road wins came against an Oregon State team that won just one game against an FBS opponent this season, and another came against a lousy Boston College team (the Eagles finished 2-10) when Cal intercepted a pass in the end zone after the Eagles got to the Cal 5-yard line with 15 seconds left in a four-point Cal victory.
And there is one other factor that the oddsmakers and number machines probably did not consider: Cal performed better when it was an underdog than when it was favored this season.
Oddsmakers made Cal the underdog in eight of 11 games against FBS opposition this season, but the Bears went 5-3 in those games as the underdogs. Cal defeated Louisville when the Cardinals were favored by 18.5 points and knocked off SMU when the Mustangs were 13.5-point favorites.
Cal’s lone win as a favorite came against North Carolina, when a Tar Heels ball-carrier fumbled at the Cal half-yard line going for the go-ahead touchdown with less than four minutes remaining in a three-point Cal triumph.
Cal and Hawaii played two common opponents this season – Stanford and San Diego State.
Cal lost to both those opponents by wide margins, getting clobbered by San Diego State by a score of 34-0 and losing to Stanford by three touchdowns, 31-10.
Meanwhile, Hawaii beat Stanford 23-20 and crushed San Diego State 38-6.
You might note that both of Cal’s losses in those two games were on the road, while both of Hawaii’s wins were on their home field. Hawaii was 6-1 at home this season, its only defeat coming in a 23-21 loss to Fresno State.






