Fresno Vs Colorado State

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@burgaweddie22

Friday, October 10, 2025 - 9:00 PM ET
Line: Fresno State -6.5 | Total: 47.5

• 6.0 yards/play, 30.7 PPG
• Defense: 6.1 yards/play allowed (110th - bad)
• 5-1 overall, 3-3 ATS, 2-1 road
• Elite passing: 73.4% completion (6th nationally)
• Recent: Beat Nevada 20-17 (missed -13.5), beat Hawaii 23-21 (missed -3)
• Multiple OL/DL starters injured

• 6.0 yards/play, only 19.2 PPG
• Defense: 6.1 yards/play allowed (also 110th)
• 1-4 overall, 2-3 ATS, 1-2 home
• Terrible passing: 6.3 yards/attempt, 192 yards/game
• Recent: Lost 45-24 and 20-3 (blowouts)
• Backup QB OUT - using 3rd string
• Massive injuries: QB, CBs, LBs, WRs, OL all out

Fresno State is clearly superior at 5-1 versus CSU's 1-4, and their passing attack (73.4% completion) is elite compared to Colorado State's broken offense averaging just 19.2 PPG. CSU has been blown out in back-to-back games and now must start their third-string quarterback. The talent gap appears massive.

However, there are major red flags. Fresno is only 3-3 ATS, consistently failing to cover spreads. They beat Nevada by 3 when favored by 13.5, and beat Hawaii by 2 when favored by 3. That's a troubling pattern of underperformance against weaker opponents. Both defenses rank 110th nationally, making this game unpredictable when bad defenses meet.

Fresno also has significant offensive and defensive line injuries, making it difficult to dominate on the road. This could be a letdown spot after emotional wins against Nevada and Hawaii, now facing a terrible CSU team.

Talent gap favors Fresno significantly, home field worth +3.5 for CSU, and CSU's backup QB being out adds another +2-3 to Fresno.

My Line: Fresno -7.5 to -8.5

The market at -6.5 is actually lower than my model suggests, which is unusual.

PASS or SLIGHT LEAN Colorado State +6.5

Confidence: LOW - Stay Away

While Fresno should win, can they cover 6.5 on the road with their poor ATS record and injury issues? CSU is terrible at 1-4, but bad home teams can keep games closer through desperation. CSU only needs to lose by 6 or less.

With both defenses ranked 110th, scoring becomes unpredictable. The total at 47.5 suggests a low-scoring, close game. If forced to bet, slight lean to CSU +6.5, but this isn't confident.

Better play: UNDER 47.5. Both offenses struggling, both teams injured, Fresno's recent games went under. The under is safer than picking a side.

Expected Score: Fresno 27, CSU 17 (Fresno wins but doesn't cover)

This game screams "bad beat." Pass and find better opportunities.

To much weight on spread wins. Colorado state is horrendous on both sides of the ball.

CO St not winning unless these Fresno State kids are making errors n giving the game away.