Final Vegas Line Stats (Top 136 teams only)

What I have uncovered could be gold for some of you. I am afraid that if you are a points grabber, you are not going to like this data much.....

First, my data is compiled inputting every final spread result for teams in the Top 136 ranking play EACH OTHER. Games that involved a D2 team are not included.

Overall: - 157 Game results qualified and inputted  (AFTER WEEK #4 > NOTE: in some cases there are about a dozen or so teams who have only played 3 games on the season)

Favorites are: >  95 - 59 - 7 (pushes)  = 61.7% of the time, favorites are covering 

Best Lines Overall to take with Faves:

Note: numbers in brackets beside loses indicate losing outright

Even to -2 = 11- 0 

-7 to -8     = 8 - 2 (2) - 1 

-10 to -12.5 = 4 - 1 

-27 to -30  = 3 - 1 - 1

-35 to -39 = 3 - 1 - 2

-3.5 to -5 = 13 - 7 (6) 

-----------------------------

Avoid:

*** any fave side with a number -16 to -23.5 =  10 - 14 (6) << 6 x outright losses 

*** -16  to 18 is worst = 5 - 7 (4) << 4 x outright losses with that big number 

I will keep adding to this thread as the season progresses...... 

I certainly am going to pay attention to line numbers and lets see how Vegas adjusts. I think it would be hard for them to put up a bad number in those low number faves because good cappers with deep pockets will find the mistake and swing the line into where it should be I suppose 

Great work Thirst, very eyeopening.

Cause now the effect.

my cause  ( this never happened before so i wasnt able to capitalize this season)

the 2024 CFB playoff bracket favorites went 10-1, 9-1-1 or 9-2 depending on the available line.  The effect to this is top 18 ranked favorites in 2025 16-30 ATS. There is/was a cause to the struggles and upsets so far

One doesnt have to believe in this reasoning as far as football and matchups.  Fact are thogh books are getting thier money back and it will continue or minimum break even the rest of the way. The test and cause to this is after week12.  According too historical trends, Thats when favorites assert themselves in a strong positive ROI.

Bracket dogs this season should be more balanced ATS The Moneylines? I am skeptical.

You might be on to something but I need more info on the cause and effect. Last season bract favorites could have some sort of influence on all games this season.  

The effect of the these early season dogs?  There will be a favorite push back at some point.  If all the bettors do is lose, most bettors will give up hope.  Business is gone if bettors lose hope.  

It most certainly is Mudhen!! 

The 'easy way' is rolling up the sleeves and finding some matchups you like and putting in the time to research to find the edge with the favorite in most cases and if you cannot, then go with your initial gut and take the pts then.....?

Stay tuned....because I am now going to equate results to SP+ rankings << and I update them every 2 weeks in my spreadsheet which is why it takes me longer to input, but I get a more pure idea how an overall RANK SP+ (which considers DEF prowess rank / OFF prowess rank mixing in special teams)

After that, I will look at matchups of OFF rank vs OFF rank > which lines are most effective?

And, OFF rank vs DEF rank? 

I did my prior analysis through August and reported in  forum that a better OFF than defense tended to skew results in wins record more than a strong DEF but, if one wanted to compete effectively, a strong def helped them get through to the and within the Playoffs

Its all scientific formula mix and I want to find how to perfectly put the caramel in the chocolate !  So now I am speaking your language a little Spottie? 

If you keep acting like a 12 year old I will tune you out 

A comedian is funny sometimes,  your not even close

non of what you are doing is congruent with my ideas.  You have no factual ATS data from history.  I want to use your pkays and teams you like and apply some of what I can see from a ATS history stand point. 

I predict you do all this work and in 2 or 3 years you’ll get nowhere.  You have no clue how this ends up and you’re in the dark on the ats results.  

Fire is lit ,  prove me wrong. 

Nice digging! And I like this stuff!

Couple of questions; Shouldn't it be 0.5 to -2, not "EVEN". Even would mean no dog or fav. 

I see on Team Rankings that Nebraska was listed as the fav @ -1 vs Michigan. Guess it depends where the final line comes from or when the line was grabbed for analysis. 

Always damn variables! 

Challenge accepted! I have so far carved a good record on my matchup analysis and feel pitting OFF vs DEF etc ...and situational metrics but now I will use the data to put the brakes on or to prevent me from tapping the breaks going forward.

Will I be flexible and data driven to steer me at times, hell ya! Flexibility is key. Same for horses. But taking points is akin to have the inside  post in a horse race (inside posts mean the outside or middle horses no the gate can swarm you and block you from flow on a big track so your positioning you would think is ideal because of having to travel less than the others but you cannot generate as much speed into the turn and you get blocked off!! That is what taking points blindly is doing sometimes Spottie. ....it assumes you have an edge...not that you do anything blindly, but your HISTORICAL DATA is not performing for you maybe because teams are not constructed the way they used to be which was a patient build >>>transfers have skewed things for the flexible bettor perhaps?)

Yes, 0.5 -2.... IS the category but I put EVEN ...thanks for pointing that out . We have not had an EVEN yet

In some cases, @Uniman, it might mean that one sits on a line for a while yes, and I have noticed we haven't seen any late flipping in the week of lines crossing over faves.....that happens early in the week.  I look at lines at least 5x a day 

Historical data does not = recency data !! 

This is what I am putting in the work for. Vegas preys on the historical data in my opinion more than ever because they have AI and bots that do the work with schemers on the line setting side too......you have to stay ahead of the curve!

I learned this in NCAAB last season. The lines skewed the faves and then conference season began and faves reversed and did not win covers on their home court always ....or strong teams on the road vs middling ranks lost a lot of covers in the winter 

^^ with this in mind, I plan on storing my data to know which week is which and will declare how the spreads get covered from Week 4 onward as well since this tends to be 'Conference Play' in football

That is what taking points blindly is doing sometimes Spottie. ....it assumes you have an edge...not that you do anything blindly, but your HISTORICAL DATA is not performing for you maybe because teams are not constructed the way they used to be which was a patient build >>>transfers have skewed things for the flexible bettor perhaps?)

Dont perhaps and guess, thats as dumb as your humor.  week1 thru 4 is about unders and favorites. Both of these failed me to past seasons results. I dont care about the why, I just failed to pick yp to my standard.  On the other hand my recods is not bad for so many selections.  

I am under the gun now so we will see.  Historically week 5 isnt even that great but this season is different than recent past seasons as well.  

Just keep on what I do and let the chips fall.  

Best wishes, hope your efforts pay you.  

No more funny business, music and good vibes is where we are congruent. Stick with that. 

Ok!  Legend has it, his IQ is 155 and he always has a message