Alright fellas, let me break down why I'm all over Ole Miss minus 2.5 at home today against LSU. This line movement alone should tell you everything you need to know about where the sharp money is going.
First off, Trinidad Chambliss has been absolutely dealing since he took over at quarterback. This kid was a Division II national champion at Ferris State and he's looked like he belongs at this level. In his two starts he's put up 660 passing yards with three touchdowns, plus another 174 on the ground with two more scores. Against Tulane last week he went 17 for 27 for 307 yards and rushed for 112 more without a single turnover. Zero picks, zero fumbles. That's championship level ball security.
What really jumps out is how opposing coaches are talking about him. Multiple guys have said he reminds them of Kyler Murray with how he creates in space and extends plays with his legs. His QBR ranks seventh in the entire country right now. For a backup making his third career start at this level, that's wild.
Now here's where it gets interesting with the line. This opened with LSU favored by 1.5 to 2 points. It's now flipped to Ole Miss minus 1.5 or minus 2.5 depending on the book. That's classic reverse line movement. About 71 percent of the betting tickets are on Ole Miss, but only 54 percent of the actual money is on them. Yet the line moved toward Ole Miss anyway. That means the sharps are hammering the Rebels and the books respect that action enough to move off key numbers.
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