YTD (CFB): 2-7 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 1-1 ATS)
Horrible start but looking to right the ship. Can't explain it because my numbers line up but the finals do not. Last week I took an OVER on Syracuse and UConn only to see the latter meltdown and the former not score until the game was waning. Was hoping for OT but such was not the case.
I did like AZ and Houston last night so maybe I'm turning a corner but I neither posted them nor wagered on them outside of in a teaser. There are some tasty matchups today but others that I think will be incredibly one sided. Here is what I am on:
CLEMSON (-3)...BIG PLAY!!!: I really like what GTech is doing this year BUT I think there is a bit of an overreaction to the Clemson start and thumping by LSU. An important note though, they OWN the Yellow Jackets and I'm thinking Dabo Swinney will have these guys focused and especially QB Klubnik who came into this year as a Heisman hopeful. It won't be easy, but I'm backing the Tigers on the trend showing they are 9-1 SU vs GTech over the past 10 and 7-2-1 ATS against the Yellow Jackets. They are also 8-3 ATS IN Atlanta. I know that GT is a better team this year, but I also know that Clemson hasn't played like they are capable of. That changes today.
OREGON (-27): Northwestern just lost their starting RB and Oregon has been the best defensive team in terms of scoring D this year. Sure, they played one cupcake and another Big 12 cellar dweller but their offense is a bit unstoppable as well. I don't have this as a BIG PLAY mostly because the game will be played in some municipal stadium with 12K fans so there is a bit of an unknown in the field and motivation especially given it's an early game for the Ducks.
GEORGIA (-3.0)...bought half point: I think this game is going to be a lot more in Georgia's favor than people think. I agree, the Dawgs have NOT played well but they also haven't been motivated the way they will be today in a matchup they have frankly owned, even IN Tennessee. The Volunteers will be able to move the ball but I don't think they will be able to win the game. The line has dropped from where it opened but I believe this is a bit of a gift. I might be eating my words later today but Kirby Smart will have a well devised game plan and Georgia should get the victory despite the skepticism from so many. The spread is dangerously low now so I bought the half point in the case the FG matters in the end.
TEXAS TECH (-23)...BIG PLAY!!!: I see ZERO way that Texas Tech does not bulldoze Oregon State. For one, OSU has been beaten by far worse teams giving up points against offenses that are lesser than the Red Raiders. Secondly, Texas Tech has put up more than 60 points in their first two games and, while the Beavers have put up some points in their first couple of games, they lost by almost 20 at home to a California team that is not on the same level as Texas Tech. I think the task is way too big to ask of the Beavers and if the Red Raiders blow them out by 24, we still have a W. Really like this spot for a BIG PLAY.
I might be back later, hoping to have a slammer of a day but need the dogs to not bark b/c I'm on 4 favorites. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all....
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