Clemson vs. Fsu

Here is an interesting stat for ya - Clemson loses to NC State at home and NC State loses to Louisville by 300 points.

No, I'm not counting that as a Clemson win.  When you shank a chip shot at the end of regulation, the game was out of your control.  Yeah they technically won in OT, but in your mind you have to be rating that game as a loss.  I'll be honest if I was on the Selection Committee I would consider that a De Facto loss and not have them in the playoff.  There's a difference between winning a close game where maybe you need a stop on defense in the last 2 minutes and winning a close game where your opponent is simply inept and botches a play that is made 80% of the time.

Do you trust a team that could not handle NC State at home to beat FSU on the road?  They barely beat FSU at home last year when they clearly had a superior team.  Remember 12 points?  They never sniffed that cover.  And they had everything going for them this year.  Now, they have a worse team and FSU on the whole is probably the same.  Defensively, they have issues, but they can step up in big games like they did vs Miami.  Offensively, they are probably better. 

I'm not an FSU fan, but this is a primetime game and their Superbowl.  There will be so much intensity.  Clemson has not win a big road game vs anyone in a long time.  They play every good team at home man.  Notre dame last year at home.  Louisville this year at home.  They squeak out both those games by a coupe points.  If they were played on the road, they likely lose.  Louisville almost certainly would have been.  I just think Clemson is overrated and when you combine that with how tough FSU plays them every year this is a very, very strange line.  I thought FSU might be a 2 point fav.  I think this is an incorrect line based on faulty public perception.  Take FSU or don't bet the game. 

In CF, the bookmakers love to give out big road favs.  Most of them don't cover in these spots man.  Clemson's stock is at an all time high, FSU's is low.  The law of averages tells me this is a horrendous line and if you take FSU and they don't cover  you can't feel bad about it because it's the correct side.  People are scared to take dogs that's why you get these lines.