forget WIU they have been the armpit of their division so let’s omit Northwestern beating them the other 2 games were against achieving teams do one has to dig deep. Northwestern is1-1 ats because they scored 2 touchdowns in the final 6 minutes of the 4th quarter against Oregon. I give credit to NW defense. Their offense before junk time 4th quarter playing Tulane and Oregon 3 points scored.
Look you can pick apart me for criticizing them for their lack of production. playing good team now playing UCLA is 2 different things. They have yet to establish how good or bad they are on offense. All we get to see is against western Illinois for any real production yes and against Oregons second and 3rd stringers.
UCLA my only valid argument their lines are way beyond their talent. This line is a reaction to that and a big line drop. New Mexico can play, they were only 2 scores from Michigan in that game. Tgat line being -14 was absurd so I’m taking that into account in this game.
UCLA is not going to see many opportunities to cover and I feel like this game is their best opportunity to date.
+6 against a Utah in week 1 now +7 to Northwestern? It’s not a guarantee but it’s a lot closer to something they can handle to cover. Their other games not so much.
Watch volatile teams. FSU comes to mind? After last season and a big win over Alabama now they are top 10 that’s volatile! They have a huge game next week as well
Favorites that will be dogs in their next game are not strong bets these are soft spots and a volatile team like FSU that is ranked based upon presumptions not strong longevity and stability are susceptible for failures.
Look out.
Vandy same thing, volatile no history of sustainability. Laying this many in back to back week is unheard of for them. Their big wins this season are against 2 historically strong teams not having good seasons let’s see them leap up once again.
Zlook at teams that are not coming close to their expected and projected lines.
Indiana at first I was ready to dump them but looking at their recency they struggle again the elite or top10. Iowa can’t score to keep pace. The look ahead is next week against Oregon. The projected line is +10. That’s when I dump Indy. They can’t control that game and when they can’t dictate the game the way they can a lesser team it’s been curtains.
@haymo
Based on my top math model which is a net expected yardage with a strength of schedule formula. I have Mizzou State as a 5 to 10 point fave. Do they always win???? Obviously no. I find CFB a really tough sport to beat but my math keeps me from at least getting killed. Most years I show a nice profit.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
