RECAP
Mizzou .. won on rushing .. run D .. sacks .. had roughly equal yards / penalties .. the big diff here was 1 add'l turnover and early in the game with all the momentum they got bama stopped 3 n out .. taunting penalty free first down bama marched for a TD .. I had a sense the margin for error to win was very thin and that might have given bama the edge just to equalize and yeah .. Zoo really needed the strip sack / easy TD early in H2 .. Bama won on passing 74% comps and critical downs were 6/15 on 3rd but 3/3 on 4th so effectively 9/15 60% success moving the chains ... Mizzoo 1/10 on 3rd 2/3 4th so 3/10 .. 30% .. and that was the feeling for most of the game .. that and inexplosive run game and runs that didn't quite keep them on schedule .. and Pribula hit and miss dealing with pressure mostly miss and whiffing on some passes some he'd reallllllly want back like wide open guy on his 2nd drive .. air mailed it out of bounds .. Thought Mizzoo was lucky to have been in a position with the ball and chance to tie or win .. resulting pass sailed into safety's hands with another WR wide open wasn't a surprise .. absolute fail and lucky to not have needed that drive just to cover IMO ..
Maryland .. clearly out matched by Nebraska but our ace in the hole was MD has a decent enough pass D and Nebraska in the late first roadie spot .. and coming out H2 this seemed to take hold with MD up a TD off a pick 6 .. also had Raiola seemingly hurt on a sack to close H1 .. unsure the impact but clearly we got some benefit out of that and think the entire MD team came out thinking this could be the game they don't just cover .. aaaaand then they just cover .. gave up easy scores .. Nebraska's run D isin't good but MD couldn't capitalize .. MD's QB had a decent day .. MD's run D left them in bad shape all game ..
Louisiana .. 13.5 and we got LUNCH in at QB .. he is a dynamic and solid playmaker for them who can run and throw a deep ball and when JMU puts all their chips on stopping the run .. which they did effectively .. he still went balls deep to land us a few TD's and nearly got one right before H1 which woulda landed us the smaller total over 44.5 most likely and / or possibly changed the outcome where we coulda pulled down the FUN BET ULL ML/O44.5 for 20-1 .. eeesh very disappointed how they closed the half with NO POINTS when they coulda been a real threat going up 10 at least if not 14 .. ULL was ahead and /or in position to win or tie almost the entire game so very very disappointing .. JMU was stuck in another tough spot with the division showdown vs ODU on deck .. we didn't expect a result like ODU had vs Marshall .. clearly that was the game to key on for the result we were looking for in this one but nonetheless got the BP and the smaller spread .. right call right idea ..
Tex / Okla Unde .. I mean this just never had a shot with UT's D coming off the embarrassing performance and probably realizing that success of the season and ability to win in the SEC totally falls on them .. they went out and did it ..
Toledo .. I can only get us a 21-zip head start .. I can't make them win let alone cover that stuff comes from within .. WOWZERZ!!!.. Toledo strikes again with another errant loss as the far and away best all around team in the MAC .. high time for the Rockets to hang up the Jason Candle's headset for him because this is pretty much the story most years for them..
GAME OF THE YEAR
BRIDGE PLAYS
OLE MISS / GEORGIA -9.5 GM OF YR
Spot is still good with UGA home for the big revenge game .. what's not good is UGA .. I wouldn't even look at it today .. maybe play it in game if UGA makes a mistake early and gets the line favorable .. I could still see this being a big surprise UGA win I don't think we're out of it .. that's why we like tying the spot in w look ahead games .. even if the teams change unfavorably here we are still with a line that's not far off .. was UGA 5.5 look ahead last week .. and was 6.5 look ahead open last night .. obvi this is nothing to brag about but lining up the right spot spared us from I think a sure thing loss .. no revenge neutral site and Ole Miss doesn't look like barely a pac 12 team last week I'd say UGA is probably the 9.5 point dog here lol .. call it a dud but at least a dud that can still hit ..
SMALLER
PENN ST / IOWA UNDER 45.5 GM OF YR
PSU omg .. and QB is OFY now .. my word feels like I go take a p!ss come back and PSU goes from elite top 3 to losing to the worst teams in the P4 .. on the road, at home and clearly in their souls .. NU won on TOP, penalties and were +1 in turnovers .. something a good team should overcome easily with offensive firepower .. but this team lost on yardage overall too and just woah nellie .. PSU's teleportation to rock bottom came at such a bad time in the heat of their conf schedule .. you see Clem and Texas getting their struggles out the way early and the arc for them is at least in the right direction .. even UCLA you see the wonder of regrouping after a meltdown .. MSU take note guys .. hire Tim Skipper and Jerry Neuheisel today and you could be beating Penn State in a few short weeks lol .. idk how Franklin survives outside of massive buyout but if yer PSU I think there is only one choice at this point .. and it would be better to, as the English say, 'get on with it' ..
Only worry here is a team collapse could trigger a massive offensive output from Iowa .. we've seen B2B weeks some surprsingly poor defense .. Jim Knowles the best DC in history (to start the year) .. but we also noted everywhere he went it didn't flip the switch right away .. Okla State took 2 years to turn real nasty in year 3 .. Buckeyes took a year and sometime early in yr 2 it was evident they were elite and super elite year 3.. not instantaneous other spots and hard to tell what's in store for this team rest of this ssn .. On the flip side there's a worry that PSU could regroup itself under a new QB and produce some points .. coach fired might spark a big turnaround .. hard to tell but man o man this is the first real test since Oregon and they've failed their 2 practice tests in the interim .. miserably .. WOW .. PURE WOW!!
SMALLER
JMU / ODU UNDER 49.5
JMU Pass and Run D is really strong and ODU leads with a very strong offense .. game's at JMU in a total epic conf showdown that put both teams in terrible spots last week .. ODU's D is nothing real special .. but JMU has clear deficiencies on offense .. especially pass game .. receivers stink .. and games at JMU it feels like their best attributes take over and at this point its hard to imagine if the offense wasn't putting up points vs VERY BAD DEFENSES in ULL and GA State in B2B weeks that it all of a sudden finds itself in a major way this game .. ODU is not a push over in run D and besides a bad spot meltdown they've been well under 60% pass d comps and were 4 TD's to 5 picks leading into the ugly loss .. wow what in the world was that!! ..
Tough to say exactly what to make of the game ..ODU just BLEW any .. small .. playoff chance it had out of the universe .. JMU must find its motivation in winning its first ever Sun Belt championship .. for both teams .. and this is the division showdown that puts one firmly in the driver seat to punch their ticket to the champ game .. These 2 met in the CAA in their FCS days .. before JMU was the major superpower in FCS ODU was in that spot in a few years they waxed these guys 2x in 2011 and 2012 .. JMU since returned the favor beating ODU 3 straight in the sun belt .. all Virginia schools really go at each other in this state and all the little guys seem to have the complex of whose the tallest of the scrappy short kids on the block ..only 5 games in the history but they recently named this matchup "THE TOWNEBANK ROYAL RIVALRY CHALLENGE" I can assure you that this is the biggest conf game on both teams schedules with and without the conf showdown and corp sponsored rivalry naming rights etc etc .. MASSIVE GAME .. think its lower scoring slug fest all the way ..
Marshall just knows how to beat that team they have won 8 straight vs ODU and Marshall has been putting up a lot of points last 4 games got that offense rolling, and toledo is just flat out horrible as a favorite and they lose outright as a double digit favorite a lot look it up its crazy i was on BG and some ML decent week gl
BRIDGE PLAY
TENNESSEE +8.5
This is a tough one I took 9.5 last night and think it could drop considerably maybe well under a TD .. Tenn is not the greatest team but they do have a decent D Line and given some of Bama's run D woes I think we can take a stab at the points here .. SP+ has this at Bama -4 and I tend to agree its north of that but south of a TD .. We do have a massive rivalry game and would tend to give TENN a little latitude in how they played their recent game very close with Arkansas .. will be a TRIPLE MAX EFFORT here .. I also don't like how Vols tend to play on the road .. this is such a big game for them as they can truly insert themselves into the conf hunt .. a spot that I didn't think they'd sniff this year .. come close in quite a few games to being out already .. add on the rivalry elements and yeah think I'll take the points here..
We faded bama last week in what I thought was a potential death spot last week .. VERY VERY TOUGH PHYSICL GAME .. multiple guys got hurt and unclear if they'll be back .. Mizzoo's hard hittin safety put one of their WR's into a coma .. I don't think he'll be playing this week .. All that said Bama showed up to that spot and didn't blink much .. some troubles in deed but they didn't succumb to the spot in my view .. AND .. on even ground I gotta say Bama looks like a top 5 team with OSU, Miami, Indy! and idk TAMU maybe?! .. but here we are yet again its now their 4th SUPERMAX EFFORT in a row ..good spot at home but this isin't the game I'm laying points on .. And gotta note that UGA coulda won that game .. Vandy played them very tough final score very misleading .. Mizzoo I thought played bad and somehow had a shot to win ..
Tenn is iffy in coverage and that's a problem here .. but wouldn't say bad and theyve been little hit n miss in run D but gotta give them some leeway after last week in a bad spot playing Tylan Green very tough chain moving dude QB .. Bama's guy can move but I doubt they want that to be the key to their success in this gm .. Tenn is stout up front getting pressure and could be a big help in this one .. DL is solid enough .. coverage at least has a few guys to like but very thin group and that's a big worry here .. we're expecting the home spot to favor bama but overall spot with all the big effort games to maybe weight them down into mistakes and expect TENN to play to their max potential .. yeah 8.5 sure why not .. gulp ..
BRIDGE PLAY
VANDY - PICK'EM (H.ROCK)
LSU is really not a very good team overall and they're off a tough game .. kinda down n out very iffy S.Carolina team gave them a bit of a run for their money AT LSU last week .. we saw Nussmeier struggling to make plays .. taking pressure and he was on a bad leg .. took some hits and we'll see if that gets any better .. but bad OL bad offense and I think going on the road to Nashville with Pavia stewing over their bama loss really makes for a bad spot for this LSU team .. pre-ssn this was a massive line but it does feel like we know at this point that even in a loss Vandy can go toe to toe with Bama and I think if they changed a couple small things / didn't just go for the Pavia show and use the RB's a little more .. the stuff that got them where they are .. didn't suffer the ugly turnovers .. this mighta been another big vandy win .. another universe now .. LSU beat these guys up last year and Vandy still alive in the conf and playoff hunt .. they need this one .. like the spot and think LSU will surprisingly lack much offense in this one ..
BRIDGE PLAY
OKLAHOMA -3.5 (H.ROCK)
Gunna go fast .. Fan up to 5.5 .. not saying its the greatest steal but I give Mateer a muuuuch better chance to perform in this one vs what he did vs one of the best D's in the country .. also a pretty sizable reveng spot ..S Carolina hasn't shown us much and opps to do something big vs LSU last week fell totally flat .. .. good luck .. play it quick..
BRIDGE PLAY
MIAMI -12 (CZRs)
Don't want to lay the double D but Miami run D is extra stout and the pressure campaign is going to be relentless .. Miller Moss is a statue back there and under pressure his numbers drop to horrific levels .. we've seen Pitt shut Ville's run D down and by the grace of the FB gods they lucked their way into that massive comeback .. could happen again .. we've seen Miami do this thing where they take their foot off the gas at the end a couple times now .. but big home spot I'm hoping we don't get the lightning strike .. think it could actually be a giant win here .. good luck!
SMALLER
UCLA -2.5
Didn't want this one to be the first nasty spot for MD but they're off 2 really solid spots at home vs opponents in tough spots .. Wash off the Bucks X country .. Nebraska first road gm .. both spots worked well for them .. good home field .. 2 almost wins and my pref would be they closed out Nebraska and had a big party this week .. its possible they buckle down and show up and UCLA is drunk off their turnaround magic .. I just have a funny feeling though its UCLA in a firm 'keep the party goin' spot .. at home .. at night .. and likely in front of the most fans they've seen in a long time .. The big problem is this is about a 20 point adjustment from where the line was week 3 or so when UCLA was rock bottom worst rated team in CFB nearly .. and MD was kinda cruisin .. big jump can be explained obvi and hope UCLA is not just a 2 hit wonder because if so then they will absolutely lose to even a down on their luck MD team in a tough x country spot .. gotta go smaller .. wish we could T-OFF on it .. good luck!
BRIDGE PLAY
STANFORD +18.5
B2B2B BIG CONF GAME LOSSES and each was heartbreaking in its own way .. far cry from how they started POUNDING BAMA .. any major post season goals are in the toilet and now we have this trip wayyyy X country to one of the worst teams as a massive favorite showing up to prove they aren't truly an ACC bottom feeder again even if their conf record says they are . they do get the extra hours in the travel time but man this game at 7:30 PT is 10:30 ET start time .. this line should be 21 or so but between the travel and the other major aggrevating factors .. man o man .. I'd say put em on upset alert but this feels more like you might need 24 hour suicide watch because this matchup feels like a possible extinction meteor heading right for Mike Norvell's head and its really not clear to me if he can motivate his team to not just grab a cold one this week and watch the IMPACT ..
Stanford has been in mostly bad spots with more motivated opponents this year .. @Hawaii to start when they had no real idea what the team was .. @BYU was tough sledding .. Got a big and maybe lucky W vs BC at home in a good spot .. then back out @UVA X country vs a team in a big home spot off a bye total slaughter .. eeked one out vs SJSU in a bit of a shootout .. back on the road @SMU felt like another 'kill me' spot .. By now the rating is in the toilet for good reason and we flip the script not just on the opponent spot w FSU in a major dud but Stan should show up with some fortitude and do a couple things right here or just get a little lucky .. Hard to imagin FSU doesn't have a good number of guys out and are thinking about playing some guys further down the roster in this one esp if they get well out ahead because no way the starters should be playing the entire game .. What I could imagine is if new faces happen to show up to start the game or quite a few jump in well before FSU gets a foot hold in the game.. we'll see how it goes .. Stan is legit not great .. bad run game doesn't help .. D is not very good .. but this spot says they should play one of their best games of the ssn and FSU might have one of their worst so .. that could be worth alot more than a couple points .. good luck!
BRIDGE PLAY
TAMU / ARK OVER 61.5 (FAN)
Hardly ever do a total BP but I think this is just so likely to be an offensive bonanza for a few reasons .. Big rivalry and we expect the things each team does well to show up .. Ark has been a real surprise on offense with Tylan Green but its not all him .. excellent pass blocking so far .. really strong lead RB and backup .. Great WR duo in Blake / Sharpe 2 more capable support cast .. TE Platt and RB Washington both can catch a ball .. TAMU's D has stepped way up so it seems in the last few weeks since a debaccle vs UTSA w them running all over em .. ND shootout .. Aggs pinned down Miss State and Auburn .. Auburn's offense has the IQ of an ally cat and Miss State is really just capable on offense I wouldn't call it strong .. OL not very good .. Big key is can Ark stop a tough pass rush that gave Florida all kinda trouble .. Ark did great pass blocking vs ND and Ole Miss and while they gave up some sacks to Tenn I'd say overall good job vs a very very tough DL on the road .. TAMU's tackling has also been a big problem in multiple games now and in this big road spot I could see it being one of the kickers that makes this easy for us ..
TAMU's offense has been very strong looking so far but hasn't put up the points in every game .. This OL vs this D front is a massive mismatch and really the D front has been mismatched all eyear .. I expect one of the best passing games from Marcell Reed in this one .. Ark's D has been THROTTLED with injuries and key starters and depth have been OFY and in and out of the lineup .. they don't play many guys in the 2-deep we only see 7 or so backups get in the game in blowouts vs ND .. last game vs Tenn in a close one 5 guys subbed any sig reps .. and the starters aren't very good anyway .. 2 sacks only vs their best comp Ole Miss, ND, Tenn .. TAMU has given up 4 sacks total in their 4 tough games incl those credited to Reed .. 3 vs Auburn and 1 vs Miss St .. Zero vs Florida and @ND .. only gave up much pressures to Aub and ND .. Florida and Miss St had very very little .. Ark prob min pressure here .. lucky to sniff Reed .. expecting their pass and run game to work really well here ..maybe best conf game of the year and point total to go along w it ..
Kicker here is Ark's HC was fired and Petrino has taken over .. they got a big game outta them @TENN took them to the wire on pure offensive grit .. BIIIIG RIVALRY game for Ark now AT HOME .. expect their biggest punch of the year and w Patrino at the helm you know where that punch will come from .. expecting a solid output that makes TAMU quit dicking around and finish drives with TD's.. if TAM's offense screws around and fails to cap drives then Ark can absolutely oblige them and pull out a big win .. TAMU wins 52-45 in a BOOMER ..
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
