BP RECAP ..
PITT .. holy PITT .. we can put in the pile with the Buffalo loss from the other week .. in fairness it shoulda been a close game but we got the hot start up 17-zip we got the run defense we expected fully shut down Ville on the ground 90% of the game totally ineffective 2 sacks 8 more TFL's excellent up front under 2 yds / carry for the RB's besides the one 15 yd run near the end .. Teams traded free TD's early on w Pitt pick 6 but handed it back with the bizarre punt returner touch play handing Ville a free TD .. 2 Pitt had 2 more turnovers lead to short Ville TD's .. Narduzzi benched Holstein for the last few drives Cole Gonzales somehow was worse with drives going nowhere couldn't pass or run at all and that final pick deep in their own territory along w the 1 decent run they gave up all game really blew the cover for us.. we were 85% prob to win early Q4 and the +6.5 idk felt like there was the smallest of windows for that which Pitt managed to find ... Pitt w a 10 pt lead in Q4 vs WV and 95% win prob with 3 mins left in that one .. holy jeepers .. Pitt very likely to cost us the over 5.5 win total in the exact opposite manner in which they beat us on under 5.5 wins last year ..
TAMU .. didn't see much of the game but every time I tuned in seemed like we were doing something right .. Had a great home spot .. bested Auburn 415 yds to 175 so +240 yds .. multiple missed FG's, fumbles, and picks actually gave Auburn a shot to win and lost the cover by a hook .. Bill C's SP+ win expectancy says TAMU shoulda won by 21.5 99.7% win prob .. I mean .. WHAT THE HELL ..
CMICH .. the worry was that while E.Mich stinks this was a total mismatch with C.Mich's really good run game .. and early one easy peasy on way to our cover .. late game we did have a bit of worry .. but Chips final drive up 11 BULLDOZED their way to close this game out .. well done .. SP+ Post game win prob 98% 17 points and man o man somehow we were still sweating it ..
DUKE .. Spot play baby .. Ricky Collins needs to improve dramatically and the defense after the big clemson win left them no chance .. I'd expect if Ricky can improve a little he can actually turn them back into a solid .. @SMU feels likely more trouble but maybe another week back home, check his progress because Cuse has alot to like and maybe even something on D when they're not caught in a total blackout drunk death spot like that one vs a MUST WIN Duke squad w a solid offense and high pressure D .. and Collins doesn't need to improve much to get these guys to cover the big spreads I expect to see coming if SMU blows them to smithereens this week in Dallas ..
BP's cont'd ..
ULL .. Spot play again .. major revenge home game Cajuns got blown out in the champ game last year on Cajun Field and regardless of how horrible they've been you knew this was one where alllll systems were at a max effort to win this one .. Down 17-34 after QB throws B2B picks incl a pick 6 .. in comes new QB Lunch Winfield leading 4 straight scoring drives to tie the game and 2 more TD's in overtime .. 6 drives 38 points put him on your radar because he is a CERTIFIED GRADE A DUDE .. We definitely got lucky they had LUNCH ready for us but think for sure if we tried ULL in any other spot they'd have packed it in and lost this one and that is why we aren't just pickin' teams we GOTTA pick our spots ..
PENN ST .. Speaking of great spots.. GOY play got up to -7 pre-ssn before Oregon started looking super elite early on .. Penn State surprised us with inability to pass the ball .. really does just look like the same team as last year only without DO-IT-ALL DUDE Tyler Warren .. Nitneys had an outside chance to win and cover in OT but yeah good spot / wrong team .. and bad read that PSU's WR portal haul would help them their pass offense coming into this one seems worse than they were doing last year .. again it just looks like the same team only without their elite offensive star .. no excuses for PSU they were all in on this year and in a great spot .. let's just say the odds of one of those sudden 'show cause' scandals that leads to Big Game James' no muss no fuss firing is considerably higher this week ..
BP: LW 3-3, YTD: 10-15
SM: LW 4-1, YTD: 20-11
UTAH ST +22 
Man o man .. wrote it off at some point and didn't even think about it .. thanks! .. yeah I heard backup QB came in playing pretty well but that is a huge tough break for Utah State's QB1 he is a LEGIT DUDE for them and possible coulda wiggled them into a solid year if not maybe the MW champ game .. we'll see on other QB but that's a huge hit .. I acutally had some Utah St Q1 and H1 ML's running so was little more thinking about that .. Q1 very very nearly hit woulda been some wild like +600 .. after that I kinda tuned out esp when they were down massive .. 
SMALLER
CINCY .. SU WIN ... they coulda lost the cover .. very high variance tit for tat ending but having that number over the 4.5 woulda made most folks feel pretty good as the epic exciting conclusion .. we got a huge surprise in this game too .. expected KU D to not be all that great but didn't truly expect Cincy's offense to turn on the WOW FACTOR I mean there were some epic plays and playcalls all game over 600 yards and yeah I think we can start asking if Nebraska's pass D might actually be pretty good now .. I did expect Cincy's D to do a little more .. they kept Daniels bottled up from running and overall not much on the ground for Jayhawks .. and team never blitzes kinda expected pass D to get Daniels to make mistakes but didn't see that .. CINCY HUUUUGE WIN .. LET'S GO!
TULSA .. great spot but totally outmatched Tulane pass game was wayyy too much for them and Tulsa with a huge effort pulling out a number of stops trying to keep it close .. Tulane in a horrific spot came out a little flat but they quit screwin around close to halftime .. The hope pre-ssn reading the spot was Tulsa would be a SUPERMASSIVE dog if they looked like anything vs Ole Miss and coming into Tulsa after 3 massive P4 games very wild start to the year seemed like we coulda been catching 26 points or something huge and maybe catch tulane with their pants off .. but beating OK State pushed this idea down dramatically and OK State is a turd and we def lost the value we hoped for .. tulsa even had an incredible backdoor final TD chance which they blew and lost by 17, SP's post game win prob had this at 11.5 and just wrong side of the coin this time ...
VA TECH .. favorite call of the week .. coach fired spot .. catching 9.5 and played again at 10 it ended up being a huge play for me and had em baked into numerous ML parlays .. I think the mojo keeps going again this week .. wake off a total heartbreaker vs a team that might really come together as a team now and first conf home game since the firing yeah might be playing our boys again this week ..
MISS ST .. handed tennessee's defense 2 free touchdowns .. go to overtime and lose .. friggin sheesh .. Tenn 8.5 under is GPS RADAR MISSILE LOCK if they get one play to not be a total epic disaster .. miss state otherwise played a great game .. good call on the big line .. SP had tenn as a FG better in their post game win calc ..
SMALLER
TEXAS / FLA UNDER 53.5 (GOY)
Game of the year play from the pre-ssn thread .. Feelin good here think we're closing in on 45 for the total .. I'm sure some of the drop is weather related but truth be told we expected more of a run vs defense slug fest in this one anyway and so far defenses look this year .. both offenses .. really both QB's have looked horrific for much of the year and maybe close to okay at their best .. so yeah .. still like it .. lol ..
"PENN ST .. Speaking of great spots.. GOY play got up to -7 pre-ssn before Oregon started looking super elite early on .. Penn State surprised us with inability to pass the ball .. really does just look like the same team as last year only without DO-IT-ALL DUDE Tyler Warren .. "
You nailed it right there! I took the Under 52.5 and failed to sprinkle insurance on OT. Shame on me, but I did play Oregon ml.
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