BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 5

BP: LW 0-2, YTD: 7-12
SM: LW 0-0, YTD: 16-11

BRIDGE PLAYS
FIU -4.5  
BUFFALO -5  

Let’s have a week 

Crazy week…

Buffalo .. up 17-zip in Q4 exactly what we were looking for w 'Get off the mat spot' at home vs 'Team in total soul search mode' and taking an L didn't matter much.. Coaches rotating QB's every drive with Kilcrease going out dead to nuts terrible .. Ui Ali could sorta throw the ball but saw more action in one drive than the last 3 years and mistakes killing his drives .. Desperate to find a QB and itself offensively no pressure to win spot and while the D played tough it wasn't lock'em sock'em lock down best game..  Troy drive enders included 4 punts, 1 fumble, Downs, INT for 175 yds 4.5 yds / play nothing working .. in Q4 its 3 drives 191 yds, TD, TD, TD for the win .. know some folks on Troy's TT U 19.5 .. Buffalo QB roberson got injured late and up 3 scores just layed the F down and blew a sure thing cover and sure thing win and holy smokes I could at least comprehend losing the cover but felt like almost no chance we would .. but I've never seen a team take a loss like that .. almost never .. Duke vs UNC last year Heels up 20-zip and that was at least on the road .. yeah feels like a top 10 all time stake thru the eyeball play I found .. 

FIU .. didn't even bother to show up to their own CUSA funeral here .. Delaware is a solid team but this was a spot that FIU shoulda found the wind at their back and instead they had zero shot before H1 .. even a slight sign of life in H2 got stomped out quickly and felt like they did it all to themselves after playing really well in all their games this year, at the very least playing hard and had alot to like about them .. then big conf home spot they lay a total egg .. Expected Del to be in rough shape after 3 straight hard fought big games .. they didn't skip a beat .. total whiff on both ends = blowout loss and capped the double disbelief atomic bridge play bomb week .. friggin couldn't believe it..  

Slow week finding and glad I didn't mention many .. had a few unshared .. liked UVA in the spot .. liked Wash .. KU in a great spot vs WV in a terrible one ..  lotta points on those and noticed not many dogs making the card time to pull it back a bit .. Was spying Wisco to blow a wacky MD team out the water pre-ssn .. torpedos lined up .. needed to know Billy Edwards was playing, heard they will "play him and see how it goes" figured we could in-game that for better and WOW so glad I didn't share that and I never got to lose money either .. ECU in a great spot makes some unreal mistakes and then plays like crap all of H2 .. yeah glad I didn't share that one .. So.Miss and Illinois smelled like a putrid fish and we found out there was a reason .. Mizzoo I sent news last week of the OL being out .. stats didn't seem to indicate it mattered much ZOO went 460 yds to 300 .. shut down SCAR's run game completely for zero yards .. Cocks with 3x the penalties w 2x the penalty yards, had plenty of their own injury situations to deal with .. Zoo sacked em 5 times, scar sacked em once .. at home ..  and yet were in the game very late, zoo didn't lock it away till last min FG .. no cover for most .. very similar 'how in the world' feel to that one ..  

Just a note too I have one of those cfb ats pick'em pools I've run for many years .. every week we have a few folks miss the deadline and it runs automatic picks and 6 outta  .. Autopick dominated placing top 4 .. no player picks had anything resembling something more than a decent week .. wasn't total carnage but nobody handpicked a great week .. man o man .. 

BRIDGE PLAY

DUKE -5.5 (FAN)

Took last night at the open .. Nothing is more ominous than laying points with Duke at this point .. But I can say that their offense has at least been firing on all cylinders and showed some propensity to stop a run game or at least slow one down and nothing out of hand on the ground given up vs ILL or NC State .. Duke also propensity to get after the QB taking ILL QB down 4 times, TFL's look ok .. they do give up a certain amount of their own which is troubling .. and turnovers and other botched plays .. 

Cuse played the game of their lives .. key loss here though as Steve Angelli went down, seen on crutches, 'he will miss some games' was the word after the game and I don't think that surprised anyone looking at him during the game .. Am I getting bamboozled here by Fran the great injury Psyop genius trying to get Duke to let their guard down?.. Not sure we've ever seen a move quite like that and boy would that be a WILD one because they put Ricky Collins in last game he goes 3/8 34 yards .. he did throw a nice TD ball but overall was ineffective in this game and we also saw him come in last week vs Colgate .. not terrible 6-4 1 TD but threw a terrible pick .. that was when Angelli came back in to keep routing them .. Expectations in my mind is that Collins is a major step down from Angelli, has very little experience and will be facing some serious heat .. Duke has shown enough propensity to give up big plays in the pass game but I think limited run game and new QB limit what they can do .. 

Cuse also always shows up vs Clemson and played some bad games but quite a few close ones .. first win since 2017 .. in '18 they nearly won again and might have if Kelly Bryant wasn't injured which set the stage for T-LAW's first ever start .. Cuse lost the next week vs a very hit n miss Pitt team to finish a big year 10-3 .. we've seen quite a few stinkers the week after Clemson L's and my expectation is after they slay a dragon like this we'll see a downer .. we saw them lose @Pitt last year 13-41 after a big NC State win on the road .. also big VT win they lost @BC, the game Castellanos got hurt early on still just too much of a downer .. 

Duke can now forget about sneaking in the playoffs with their win total .. great start to conference beating NC State .. they hand every bit of that momentum back and way more if they blow it this week .. could say that for Cuse as well certainly but note also Cuse wk1 big game vs Tenn .. downer vs UCONN came back in the end .. ran gassers after for Colgate which is actually a huge rivalry and they put angelli back in the game to make sure it would stay a huge blowout .. off an EPIC program record books win .. IN DEATH VALLEY .. very heavy spot IMO .. 

Good luck!

SMALLER

CINCY +5.5 (FAN)

Great spot for Cincy to get back in the swing .. off an FCS and a bye .. we've seen em play one (effective) road game and despite lack of a pass game they hung in pretty close w Nebraska in front of a raucous KC HUSKER-FRIENDLY crowd .. Sorsby is a dude though and hope we can count on him to move the chains here ..

KU looks impressive .. took them for a few bucks last week for just a lock down solid spot w WV off an L @Ohio .. come back and beat PITT in the only highly meaningful game of the entire season.. and then go on the road after the massive unreal comeback win and totally lay an egg .. to NOBODY'S surprise .. 

KU with Hishaw out H2 last week .. 'apparent injury' .. unclear if he's back or not .. Cincy I'd check injuries along their D-Front which is going to HAVE TO show us something here .. Cincy does this drop everyone in coverage defensive bit and idk if giving time to Daniels to make a play is a great thing .. I can say they can't let him make any plays w his legs .. still Cincy 9 sacks so far .. given up zero .. w no blitz D that's something we like .. 20 total TFL's vs 9 given up .. and the havoc didn't all just show up in the 77-zip win vs NW State they did it to the Huskers and Bowling Green too .. We've also seen Sorsby do ALOT more passing albeit vs BG and the FCS team .. Nebraska has held every team to VERY low passing numbers .. Cincy, Akron, FCS all under 70 yds passing .. Michigan with their run game humming goes 12/22 for 105 yds .. Neb Pass D is for real .. I expect more passing from Sorsby .. 

Can't go more than Smaller but this line moved VERY FAST .. 3.5 now laying odds .. sorry need to post faster .. 

BRIDGE PLAY

PITTSBURGH +6.5 (FAN)

I can't get a big amount down early but let's call it a BP anyway .. record is crappy and hope this is not too much dud here .. 

Can't throw out the meltdown loss vs WV but very much a diff state of mind for the participants playing that one .. WV was 'win at all costs' sell out biggest game of the year all that matters .. same for Pitt and then pitt pulls a total shocker .. MAJOR disappointment in a major super rivalry revenge against road spot .. 

Fast Forward .. I really like the spot for Pitt off a loss in past years and even vs a bloody battle vs Tenn into OT with multiple QB's hurt a few years ago they were -9 vs W.Mich and with no QB ran it right up their a$$ and covered easy .. we saw them beat the pants off of FCS teams after early season losses .. this time we're off a bye week and vs a major opponent .. I'd suggest checking injuries but my sense is we might see the best punch that Pitt will throw the rest of the season in this game .. very surprised we're getting 6.5 and my 'OMINOUS LINE' radar is in overdrive .. but still its a big home spot and I don't know that injuries are necessarily the key factor in this one .. if Narduzzi's team gets a bye week after a loss and shows up as a dud I'd be pretty surprised ..  

Programs are old BIG EAST in FB and still BE conf rivals in BBALL .. not as many meetings lately since Narduzzi took over in 2015 but he is 3-2 vs them and often a close game .. last year stung BAAD with a 28 point loss .. Ville won in '22 .. Pitt great year was 9-4 and that L likely kept them from having a shot to make the champ game that year .. Pitt returned the favor in '23 with a 38-21 win at home .. Ville was 10-2 7-1 conf .. beat ND and went to the conf champ game .. Pitt won 3 games that year Wofford, BC and Ville .. Ville returned serve last year with a massive 28 POINT WIN kicking Pitt right in the JUNK .. time to return the favor .. 

Huge massive home spot for Pitt .. they gave up 175 yds rushing to WV but that was on 58 att's for an even 3/carry .. CMU is one-dimensional with their run game but can actually run the ball against a level of competition and Pitt shut it down .. 41 att's for 32 yds .. under 1 yd/carry .. this Run D can play .. Ville showed a potential weakness in their run game vs JMU getting shut down all game 25 att's for 40 yds before the VERY dangerous Isaac Brown broke one late ..  this run D might be in a class of its own in this conf .. we'll know this week .. 

Also not sold on some of Ville's D .. Pre-ssn expectation is LB's very strong.. Up front is not bad esp with a MAJOR DUDE like Clev Lubin .. they put 6 sacks on JMU all told but think lot of that had to do w JMU's lack of WR's and mixing up the QB's Sluka got stopped a couple times behind the LOS .. Phil had them with #73 secondary in the mag .. that got my attention .. Pitt lack of a run game vs WV is concerning and we don't really know if the rec unit is much .. we expect high scoring w pitt's quick pace and OC Bell can scheme guys open vs weaker opponents create big explosives .. maybe we see it here idk .. would lean under just given possibility of 2 run games that can get stalled out .. we do have 2 MAJOR RB's in Isaac Brown and Desmond Reid so can't play total here .. 6.5 is just tooooo many .. at home with a possible show stopping run D and I think if Ville struggles in that area they will struggle to win this one at all ..

Like those, looks like a tough week to handicap .......BOL this week man ...........

BRIDGE PLAY

C.MICHIGAN -5.5

It's a big rivalry with E.Mich and that can only create worry .. we also have E.Mich getting a big win vs ULL .. we suspect ULL is trash after losing their QB and program in decline all the way .. We've seen CMU's run game look very strong already for significant parts vs SJSU .. they may not be the greatest data point but we expected a bad ass army style rush attack and they have one .. also surprised me with their abilities to defend the quick passes and cause disruptions .. big huge long passes were another story and a few big passes nearly cost them that game .. 

EMICH run D is horrible .. gave up 230 rush to LIU .. 480 yds total in the loss .. out yarded majorly .. CMU's rush attack should be a permanent major advantage in this game .. wouldnt' surprise me if they put up 35 .. I took a smidge on the total over 55.5 as well .. really depends on CMU's execution if they just romp on the ground and not make mistakes .. EMU's offense can actually play so some worry here but best bet for them is to 'GO LONG' and try to land some big plays .. this might be hit and miss but should move the game along and create efficient scoring or quick turnarounds to CMU who I'm sure will oblige them in going for a HUGE win here .. 

@bookieassassin

 Thanks brother .. yeah I had some other stuff going on last week and by the time to post just felt out of sync .. man o man yeah I think last week was EPIC carnage for some plays that looked rather great .. some I was on for sure .. Good to hear from you and Good luck dude!

SPOT INFO .. 

ECU / ARMY
Not saying ECU won't be total turds vs Army but Fan giving you -2.5 on them .. feels like they are begging you to buy the hook and get Army +3 .. recall last year ECU got ROUTED in a major way and coach fired after the game .. new coach provided a decent spark down the stretch .. we just saw ECU take a dump and fall in it they coulda very easily been in the game vs BYU .. they did fall apart late .. surprised BYU showed up but clearly they were ready and some really good plays from behind the sticks and playcalling seemed to get BYU into a BIG WIN late in the game .. I thought it was big home spot also .. but this Army game at home is conf revenge of a pretty high order and  would expect a special punch dialed up by ECU gets thrown this week .. will it land idk but FAN actually looks sharp minded giving you ARMY bait .. 

Also keep in mind Army was getting TROUNCED at home by UNT 21-zip .. by end of the game they nearly came back lost in OT .. UNT was WOOOORN OUT and Army had em in that Quicksand trap .. a couple horror show mistakes by UNT and nearly cost them a sure thing win .. very tough spot goin to Wash St for big win and then to Army .. near total collapse wasn't a surprise .. just something to keep in mind there ..

S.BAMA / UNT .. 
On that note .. It does sooorta feel like S.Bama could get the jump on them with this out of conference matchup .. UNT off a game they had all their eggs in .. So Bama conf on deck vs Troy .. UNT much needed bye on deck .. alls I can say is I won't be layin it and not much would surprise me in this game .. maybe in-game one team goes up huge its a diff story in H2 .. 

ULL / MARSH
REDRUM REVENGE .. AT HOME .. 

VANDY / UTAH ST ..
Expected Vandy to play a little ho-humm did'ya ?.. Revenge is a funny thing .. 70-21 scored in each Q .. 21, 21, 14, 14 .. You gunna double down and play Vandy -22.5 w Bama on deck?.. could be a double oooof .. think its back to norm .. DK full on layin a trap I think ... let's see if we can get that at like +27 as folks pike in early?

BRIDGE PLAYS

LOUISIANA -2 (CIRCA) .. REDRUM Revenge at home .. 
TEXAS A&M -6.5 (CIRCA) .. Great spot vs tough spot .. 

SMALLER

UTAH ST +22 (CIRCA) .. Vandy off revenge romp .. chill spot pre-bama .. 
OLE MISS - PK (CZRs) .. Revenge at home .. 
MISS STATE +11.5 (FAN) ..  Tenn pass D not lock down and big home game for cowbell .. 
TULSA +13.5 (CZRs).. Playing again at +14 .. EPIC spot from hell for Tulane .. maybe not great for Tulsa either but nice line and expect downer for the Wave .. 
VA TECH +9.5 (CIRCA) .. Gotta be playing it back again off the coach fired .. beating wofford is not enough .. NC St is beatable .. 

BRIDGE PLAYS
PITT +6.5
DUKE -5.5
LOUISIANA -2
TEXAS A&M -6.5
C.MICHIGAN -5.5
PENN STATE -4 (GOY)

SMALLER
CINCY +5.5
TULSA +13.5
UTAH ST +22
VA TECH +9.5
MISS ST +11.5

Your GOY is Franklin as 4pt chalk against Ducks... say it aint so!  His record against top5 teams is 1-15.  I know, Ducks are #6.  Good luck!

Nice write ups. I like Pitt, Cincy, Utah St, and Miss St

Good luck Bridge.  

SEASON WINS - UPDATE

BYU UNDER 8.5 -157 - Possible we get shocked but feels too good not to put the shades on right now.. gulp..
TULSA OVER 2.5 -180 .... Shoulda cashed already but no worry here .. need 1 more .. maybe this week?!..
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115  .. 2-2 .. 7 competitive left and home vs Tex State so .. go ahead and mark it .. 
S.DIEGO ST OVER 4.5 -110  .. Swish .. major disaster only thing keeping us from cashing .. @NILL and @NMEX are dangerous spots but we're in great shape .. 
MARSHALL UNDER 5.5 -115 -  .. 5 W's feels like the very very best case .. 
S.CAROLINA UNDER 7.5 -110 .. GO AHEAD AND COUNT IT!! ..  
PITT OVER 5.5 -150 .. .. Finish off WV and we're home free .. hope we didn't 'need' that one .. TBD
UAB UNDER 4.5 -130 - Losing to Akron woulda locked this up. Offense has us preparing to sweat a little
ARMY UNDER 7.5 -110 - Big W last week puts it in great shape .. might put a chokehold on it this week 
AUBURN UNDER 8 -120 - Looks on tgt for at least a tie .. Might just tie but this is still more likely to win than lose
MISSOURI OVER 7.5 +130   ..  Can't do cool guy yet but this feels pretttteee good .. floor is 7 wins .. ceiling >10 
JAMES MAD OVER 7.5 -120 .. .. Floor feels like 7 wins .. not far off from droppin the shades on it ..
GEORGIA ST OVER 3.5 -105 .. .. 1-3 was expected .. quite a few good shots left .. lotta shots on goal .. 
TENNESSEE UNDER 8.5 +100 ..  UGA heroics kept us on track .. I still lean good guys here .. 
OHIO STATE UNDER 10.5 -130 .. .. Not as impressive shutting down UT's offense wk 1 .. we'll know more this week .. 
TULANE UNDER 8.5 -110 -  Need 3 more L's and its possible but looking less likely .. 
NWESTERN OVER 3.5 -140  .. worrysome .. UCLA in coach change spot .. Purdue is tough .. not dead .. but gettin there 
KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -120  .. Trouble .. its possible but tough to lose 2/3 vs Ball St, UMASS, Akron and not pull any other upset .. Count it .. L

SEASON WINS - UPDATE .. 

Welp this always makes me feel better ..

Lotta cool shades droppin already .. still lotta popcorn to eat .. but I got almost every popcorn play over 50% .. OSU seems like a 50/50 ball the crux of the play was we'd either be in this spot or in virtual lock mode if UT won week 1 .. UAB clearly has some upset potential but beating Akron was contemplated and they barely beat them and yeah still lean good guys there .. all others lean to win .. 2 look unlikely .. Kent state I think is in miracle territory with Ball St, UMass, Akron all looking terrible and otherwise have real upset potential .. think the floor is 9-8-1.. ceiling 14-4 .. maybeeee 15-3 with good luck .. 

@Indydog

Yep .. contemplated in the pre-ssn thread absolute all systems go must win spot .. yeah I know very tough to play him .. we'll see .. but man o man if he can't just fire him on the spot .. yeah quite a few GOY's I wish I didn't lay points on .. but keep in mind we were up to -6.5's and -7's for this one pre-ssn and great start from Oregon vs Ho-Humm start haven't played anyone start for PSU pushed this back down.. Thought we might see Oregon w a ho hummer @NU but no dice there ... Anyway we're not in bad shape I think Oregon has put much of themselves on film already and PSU will be a much bigger mystery .. at least for now I still like the play but yeah woulda been worth it to wait .. good luck!

CONF CHAMP 
PITT 80-1  
UTSA 8.5-1 
BAYLOR 9-1 
TULSA 300-1 
SO MISS 24-1 
ILLINOIS 38-1 
MISSOURI 50-1 
VIRGINIA 200-1 
CINCINNATI 40-1
WASHINGTON 75-1 
NEW MEXICO 100-1 
SAN DIEGO ST 60-1 

MAKE CHAMP GAME
NORTH TEXAS 8-1 

HEISMAN
DIEGO PAVIA 300-1 
AHMAD HARDY 500-1 
BLAKE HORVATH 500-1 
DEVON DAMPIER 100-1 
BEHREN MORTON 300-1 ...

MAKE PLAYOFF
UTSA 25-1 
SO MISS 100-1 
SAN JOSE ST 60-1 
SAN DIEGO ST 60-1 

NATTY
TEXAS TECH 175-1