RECAP
Bridge Plays takes the lead since idk which week .. i'll give that one woop ..
OK.State .. Rabbit out of a hat .. we didnt even get their starting qb Hejni back .. loser .. they reallllly blew the game when they shoulda won and I suspect if Hauss was in we woulda closed this out pretty easy .. woop ..
ND .. sure looked like Pitt players were playing for a bit but you can kinda tell there just wasn't a real plan to attack this team and even if they had one it wouldn't have done much help .. man o man PITT had better .. and I mean better .. make that conf champ game for tanking this major massive spot .. can only imagine what pitt's fans had to pay for those tickets and with gameday there like all the ticket packages and extra junk they'd make them buy to go to that game .. and easy to sell those tickets to drunk ND fans throwing money around .. welp lotta light blue in the stadium with gameday on hand and holy crap Narduzzi you better have a big biiiiig plan if yer tanking games like that boiiii ..
Wash State .. love these guys .. quite a spot this week and I think you can still bank on a DUDE like zevi and these guys and all these SDSU JACKS players and coaches showing up vs JMU to show they weren't just the cream of the FCS ..
New Mexico .. shoulda been a banger .. 5 fumbles .. drives stalling out for field goals .. were up 10 pts twice in this gm and dicked around for a small win .. Rams looked hapless and seat of your pants plays with a new QB kinda just lucked their way into some points .. couldn't believe it .. FU ..
Delaware .. no excuses .. announcer did say guys dealing with the flu and up 10 very early on absolutely cratered basically mid Q2 and beyond .. I suspect the flu prob was impactful but looking back I prob shouldn't have layed over a TD w this team on the road .. sammy hoooo-dat smacks us again .. ugh .. disgusting ..
Entering the last two weeks which is where motivations are key and critical .. spots get wild and unexplained things tend to happen .. be real careful because those books have been playing this fiddle pretty well this year .. very easy to get buried .. like I did .. last week on spots like that 17 point GT road fav ... but I think you can def catch books over perusing these spots and/or sleeping on some of these too .. good luck!
BRIDGE PLAY
ARMY -10.5
I picked this up -9.5 right away .. tulsa off their big win .. no chance for a bowl .. off fairly late game and playing very early in west point .. I suspect they didn't spend much time learning them and I wouldn't bother much this week either with a very very winnable home finale on deck to give coach Lamb win #4 in his not horrible but certainly not great debut ... Army 5 wins and they live to go bowling such a big part of the service academies .. win here locks it up with 6 .. if not they go @UTSA and that's one the RR's will be playing with revenge for very very togugh loss last year .. and beyond that yeah they do get Navy but its typical for bowls to be filled up by then and a 5 win army or navy can just be left out even nabbing their 6th win in that game .. this is very very close to a technical 'must win for bowl' spot as I wouldn't bank on Army sure thing winning next week .. GOOD LUCK GO ARMY!
Not the biggest play in history with Army laying 10.5 .. if we see another 9.5 I'd be more apt to take that .. I think tulsa is a just a fish outta water in this spot and hope the West Pointers can capitalize in front of their fellow cadets .. which they realllllly like doing for them ..
SMALLER
CHARLOTTE +44.5
Got this right away .. brain off bimbo play for me with UGA vs the little guy late in the year off their SEC conf slate and w GT on deck and boiiii is that a major high motivation game this year now .. I find it very difficult to believe UGA is playin w a full deck every time they let like Umass or UT Martin keep pace w them in these spots .. Kirby has said in the past he picks his spots and no doubt these games arent his spots .. and as a master motivator theres no way he doesn't turn around and say 'WTF GUYS YOU GAVE UP 3 TD'S TO UMASS??!! YOU AINT WINNING SH!T PLAYING LIKE THAT!!!!' and use that to dial up the intensity for bigger games ..
Charlotte is in fact SOOO BAD that I did pause before playing but yeah this spot really is the definition of Bet It And Forget It for me .. Good luck .. wouldn play anything north of 42.5 ..
SMALLER
OKLAHOMA STATE +14.5
Maaaaaaaan .. I prob wouldn't play this if they won last week but I don't think this rebirth is one and done .. we did see a major spirted effort and Pokes looked like the better team pretty much the entire game ... K-State was in such a major downer ... we can't BP this because UCF is at home in the bounce house and this is a big winnable game for them .. they need two for a bowl ... but call me crazy I think its still 2 kinda bad teams yeah but both should be motivated to show up .. I think OK.State should be very much still WIN HUNTING in this game and they smelled the blood last week hard to imagine they don't stay hungry .. very disappointing they don't have Hauss Hejni if they had really good QB play they might have closed out their season 3-0 with one of the best turnaround stories of the year .. as it is .. they still could be a good one for us if they just keep showing up .. GOOD LUCK!
SMALLER
MARYLAND +11.5
Michigan maybe still in the playoff hunt I suppose and sure they could use a big biiiig win here .. but we're on the road before THE GAME .. its alwayyyyys a tough spot with very very unlikely surprise near upsets for both them and OSU in this spot .. no doubt about one thing .. Michigan would rather beat OSU again and miss the playoffs than lose to them and make the playoffs .. and there's no two ways about that .. pretty clear from last week that they aren't looking to buffer the resume and here they go b2b roadies vs a team that can probably sneak off w a win here and if they can get it they got a very winnable game vs Mich State in the finale to cap I think a totally improbable bowl run .. Maryland's offense does stink but the D can play well .. Michigan is nothing special IMO .. good luck!
SMALLER
BOWLING GREEN -4.5
Akron has no shot at a bowl and neither does BG .. but GREENS are playing at home and Akron is off the BIG WAGON WHEEL game where they lost .. I think new coach Eddie George looked like the toast of MACVILLE after beating toledo and then proceeded to rattle off 4 straight losses .. He can make the most of the season by keeping his guys in the game and capping this season off with a win vs likely just a totally unmotivated akron team .. whose playing their final game of the season .. in one of the deadiest dead spots on the CFB schedule .. and Eddie G also must see the chance to finish off winning their final 2 games with this one and @Umass .. the worst team in FBS and its NOT EVEN CLOSE! .. suspect this is a team that shows up vs a team thats already bowed out and just not all that concerned with injuries and such its pure spot here ..
SMALLER
WASH STATE +13.5
I mean .. theyve poved they can go on the road and play up a level .. and yeah its possible they tank here ... off a big win .. oreg state round 2 on deck .. and they really don't need this to make a bowl if they can nab that last one .. But .. This is 100% a SUPERBOWL scenario for them .. Coogs are laden with SDSU JACKS coaches and players .. there is just no way they aren't showing up to this game like its the FCS NATTY CHAMP played out at the FBS level .. esp with JMU seemingly The King of the G5 at the moment .. Yeah I think books put this line out 13.5 hoping YOU would expect them to run over Zevi and the boyz in this 'bad tough road spot' .. maaaan I aint so sure .. might but .. I can at least expect wash state to show up and I relly like this team .. lotta added motivations going on here .. and frankly yeah JMU is still in the KILL ZONE needing to keep pounding everything in its path to punch a G5 playoff ticket .. but they're off the screamin revenge hate game vs App State and now its a fairly unknown noncon opponent coming in a conf sandwich spot .. JMU still needs to be very careful to not neglect a semi streaky Coastal Team on deck ..
But yeah I could be stepping in front of a freight train here just FYI .. but then again .. I think JMU could be also .. and I got 13-1 JMU playoff tickets so I'm def hoping they can keep makin some hay here .. but .. gotta call balls n strikes and the truth is ... #ZEVI'S-A-DUDE and that's THE TRUTH .. Def will find a spot in an ML parlay this week too .. GO COOGS
SMALLER
KENT STATE +7.5
2 very winnable games for maybe the biggest turnaround bowl run this year and you got a CMU team off their big win vs Buffalo .. clinched bowl eligibility .. and a season finale on deck to have a big game for with Toledo in the Chips home finale .. This line mimicks the approx SP+ line of 2 weeks ago and it just feels very possible that we have one team show up big at home pulling all the stops .. and another team who is good running the ball but has shown us a few times that if things aren't clicking they can pitch a really bad game and lose to the likes of Akron .. and yeah unlike Akron you have such a big goal maybe 100-1 shot at the books for them to make a bowl pre-ssn w a 1.5 win season expected .. if thats what the books were offering than yeah reality fair odds were prob more like 500-1 lol .. like I just can't see them not show up here .. Good luck!
SMALLER
NOTRE DAME -35.5
Cuse D is not the worst thing in the world but the problem is if they aren't playing a team they can stop then things just feel like they'll get completely out of hand .. the offense has been deader than dog meat after Angelli got injured and this realllllly doesn't seem like the spot where you wanna test things out to see if any QB you have can take big shots and stay on 2 feet .. its such a gigantic line but you see them throttle Pitt on the road with a decent roster and some playmakers .. this is major maaajor trouble for Cuse and ND has shown every desire to "pour it on" with very good backup squads .. only possible concern is back door being left open if ND gets way out ahead in H1 .. maybe H1 is just the better play here idk .. hard to imagine ND is playing backups and Cuse is playing starters though but that's I guess a possibility as Coach Fran should def wanna see what his team can do vs something they can at least have an outside chance to be competitive against .. maybe?.. I can also see him not at all care about the final score and protect his players before a big home finale and really a very possibly winnable game vs an old easterly rival when BC comes to the dome to see who the true worst of the worst is in the P4 ranks .. yeah .. I'd def angle for trying to win that one instead of worrying about something that won't happen this week .. ND 58-ZIP .. Good luck!
@Bridge1
I had a max play for me back in the day… on wash st plus 6 vs N Texas. … omg. Watched part of it…. It was men against boys… ever since then I have been down on wash st… they looked atrocious …. Guess that was just me… they have righted the ship…. At 220 of my dollars expense… 200 is pert near my max wager… I see why you are on them… but had you been on my journey… iffy I have feeling washst falters here… I’m passing Go Roos
@Bridge1
One more… I’m thinking Notre dame has played this season like a World Series of poker game…. No worries on early season… 2 losses will make tourney… I think this is a get healthy and prepare for playoffs week…. Favored 35… they may cover… but they are looking at playoff only… 2 games which is 3+ weeks to get healthy… and work on a few of those things we need to …. I think because of schedule… Notre dame has played their hand as best they could…. It only matters… if they knew those early games were not must win games…. They knew. Cannot win title in September. They knew. Your thoughts bridge. Do I think they can beat Ohio st or Indiana at home…. Prob not…. But I think they will be in top 4… and I think will be playing their best football in 3 weeks.
@BigTymePlayer25
Fo show .. wish it woulda turned in a little better results .. very meh on in-ssn plays this year .. success in the smallers is nice but isin't really what I was going for ..
Just my take here but feels like books got some kinda new cool tools to make numbers and early stuff has been alot sharper than in the past .. esp at Fan who takes the lead every week putting numbers out and various futures etc .. quite a few times I see their number now and think maaaan they're lookin sharp and quite a few wacky lines I wonder about and just more often than not when I see that they seemed to have an early beat and kinda forces me to abandon playing lines with bigger discrepancies .. prob woulda done much better to bet into all of em blind this year .. tbd something for next year .. even in game they seem to be much sharper across the board although I'm not monitoring that very much just my sentiments and experience too seem to just know what they're doing a whole lot better than even last year .. Some point this year I basically just reverted to playing or fading distinctive spots which I have noted on my CFB schedule I make in pre-ssn and just let that be my guide rather than trying to out power rate the books on this .. you'll pick up on that pretty easily in all my notes above and also its one of the reasons we did alot more 'smaller' plays .. shoulda made the 'smaller' plays 'bridge plays' lol .. maybe something to consider for next year ..
Also parlays very difficult to bang out multiple ML dogs this year .. picked quite a few MONSTER upsets like Stan / FSU prob the biggest hit .. and quite a few that were he right idea like Wash St vs UVA or OK.State last week but didn't quite pan out but I can at least say those were right ideas .. what actually seemed tough were the smaller dogs like if books say they're over 3 or 4 points and you see they were def the dog in the game .. just very hard to string it together like that ..
Another cue to the books doing well this yr is in the ATS pool I run .. its on spash sports 35 of us a couple smarties but very public group overall .. pick 10 games ATS each week 5 gms win = 1 pt .. 5 key games win = 2 points .. Spreads are static and post pretty early I think on Tuesday night or Wednesday so an advantage .. 5 reg picks are hitting 47.8% .. Key picks hitting 49.0% .. a winning record on all yer games puts you in the top 10 over 50% winner yer in the top 10 ... Also the site will auto pick for players who forget to submit .. Autopick has been gold with 3 weeks won overall and 11 top 5 finishes .. considering the number of auto picked weeks it boils down to those doing twice as well winning or placing top 5 .. plenty of players auto pick every year I've maybe seen a couple autopick week winners in the last 12 years of running the pool never seen anything like this year .. half of the top 6 in the season long total point standings have done at least half their weeks just not picking and using auto pick .. auto pick is hitting nearly 53% ATS overall vs 47.8% for actual player made picks .. Obvi Auto pick success is an anomaly but considering the baked in advantage for the spreads that is over 5% better .. INSANE!!!!
^^^^
@BigTymePlayer25
One other sorta freak thing to note .. pretty much every year the pool does so much better on their dog picks like not even close like literally some guys hitting high 50's or 60% on the dogs .. but ... they play so few of them they still end up with terrible losing records with most players laying the points .. at least historically .. But this year it seems fav and dog picks have evened out considerably not half the picks but wayyyy more than we used to see .. and this year Favs are doing "well" historically speaking in the pool as they seem close to 50/50 .. THE DOG PICKS ARE GETTING SLAUGHTERED!!!!! .. I'd imagine part of that is we've seen a shift in the expanded playoff era with quite a few massive (tempting) dog lines vs teams trying to make the playoffs and seems the resume motivations, coaches decisions, etc just seem to make the favs much more winnable this year and might explain why folks are more lured to dogs and why they get killed .. but I digress lol ..
Long story short .. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the sportsbooks are having success beyond their wildest dreams this year .. in the pool I'm 52.5% overall W/L ATS in the pool on 120 gms .. so literal break even with the vig .. but .. 55% on weekly key picks which are half the picks and worth 2 points for a W instead of 1 .. considering bridge plays are 50% I assume I'm maybe making the most outta that static line advantage and / or finding some success on some other guys I will tail .. Very tough to pin down exact reasons for things this year especially in teams' week to week performances .. LOT of intricacy in terms of matchups and motivations .. there's no doubt also .. at least some coaches .. who know the spread and know their fans are betting and really does serve a coach well to go for a cover .. reallllly need to look at THAT this off season as it would impact all trends and likely be a particular coaching decision that leads to a trend and not a team/program trend .. Think Big Game James and how much extra rope he seemed to get by being a well known ATS cover .. we gunna blindly take PSU in those noncons next year?.. I won't but I bet some will .. just seems like there's so many more gears that can push performances up or down and some other levers that can override the actual play on the field and manufacture a cover.. hard to figure out what happened and if it will happen again .. this game was complicated enough without all that ..
@BoatRace
Yeah .. I got it 9.5 and by post time it was 10.5 so that number is just for record keeping .. Always careful playing Army laying anything and double D's for sure .. Not totally surprised by the move .. Tulsa is def still 'WIN HUNTING' but they're off a massive big fun win at home .. and feels like they have another very winnable game maybe a massive blowout finale at home vs a UAB team that might have quit already .. Navy beat them up at home earlier this yr .. 370 rushing ~7yds / carry .. I think its just unlikely if Tulsa is still hungry for wins that they looked at this game and thought this is where we need to spend our time and energy learning to defend this attack considering the spot is just so nasty and Army at 5 wins .. they live for bowl games, always show up and often show off in a winning effort .. if they don't win this week I think its unlikely they make a bowl .. @UTSA is a RR's revenge spot and they'll pounce on em this year and if they lose that one its prob no shot to go as all the smaller Bowl game committees won't be waiting around to see if Army can win a 6th game vs Navy ..
But yeah I saw that line dipping and truth be told its a big line for an Army team and we have at least seeeen tulsa show up in a few games now .. but yeah playing the spot which I see as great for Army and bad to maybe reallllly bad for Tulsa .. if Tulsa keeps it close and competitive its a real hats off to them IMO .. think it could be such a massive dud .. if Army tanks in this spot completely and loses I'd be shocked .. but its late in the year CFB .. lotta weird stuff can happen ..
Thx for the note .. GOOD LUCK!
@Mskeets
I could see this going a variety of ways .. yeah consider Wash State w new coaches and very very new roster early on .. playing multiple QB's .. playing multiple guys at lotta positions .. that UNT game was a tough spot on the road early season and just got so outta hand early with the turnovers you'd have to redo the game now to get a real sense of where each team is at .. we know UNT is no dud at this point .. total shock squad turned out to be the real deal and caught Wazzoo in a total development game and nothing went right for em .. that said .. JMU is also the real deal and here we are in kindof a dueling banjo spot with UNT having beat the pants off them earlier and we have JMU as the other G5 playoff leader right now no doubt looking to hold serve here .. Wash State is a much diff team very scrappy and proven they can at least hang on the road with much better teams and at home in a string of tough games .. the thing is @Ole Miss, @UVA and the homer vs Toledo were all sitting in I think pretty ugly spots and it showed .. JMU I would say is also not in a great spot to expect an ATS cover .. unknown noncon improving team hard to get a beat on what they do, conf sandwich spot off a MAX SUPER HATE THIS MF'ING TEAM REVENGE SPOT EFFORT vs APP .. and still have conf on deck and coastal is not the same dud they were earlier this season although they might turn into dirt again with Samari the QB's injury .. he was a dude and they turned around in a big way w him at the helm ..
I'd also say .. yeah its long travel for Wash State and early game vs ostensibly a much better stronger team .. but we've seen them show up in this spot vs Ole Miss early morning game X country travel .. coach mentioned they were all in good shape for it and preferred the earlier time .. show up dialed in and no long break the next day just go to work .. so not convinced the travel is a dud here .. but also .. consider where the coaches and LOT of players came from on this Coog Squad .. There is NOOOO WAAAY that this group of SDSU JACKS didn't have this showdown vs JMU circled in BLOOD when the schedule came out .. and as it started lining up as a shot to take down the G5 KING and former FCS BLUE BLOOD .. you best believe these guys are showin up.. beating JMU this week would be a career maker for everyone involved and I would no doubt trade just any chance to win this game even if it meant sure thing losing to the Beavs next week in round 2 of the PAC-2 showdown and missing out on some Lunchables Bowl vs Kent State lol ... literal shot to win THE G5 SUPER BOWL here .. no prob going SUPER MAX and rolling the dice on maybe dudding out next week ..
Yeah all that said we know JMU is good and if they get their hooks in and with the G5 Playoff bid on the line you NUKE these Coogs if you can and if things go real tough for Wazzoo and they get down 3 or 4 TD's that clawing back to cover might be out of the question if they start putting in backups etc that's possible if wazoo believes they can't win the game just save the strength and regroup vs the Beavs and go for that 6th win next week .. yeah .. Very interesting spot
@Mskeets
I think we saw ND last week take what was given to them .. coach said he didn't care about losing 100-zip and I was actually surprised to see the stars on the roster playing and got a drive going out of the gate .. then it fell completely apart and ND obliged them .. Pitt looked like they had no plan at all how to attack these guys on offense and I eluded to that idea last week with you .. coach said he doesn't care .. play the full roster but its a mismatch and you need to pull out all the stops and clearly didn't .. and that was @PITT w a PACKED CROWD .. Lotta Pitt Blue and Yellow in the stands .. folks paying tons of money for those tickets .. gameday on hand .. you can imagine what they coulda sold those seats to ND fans for .. and the ones who didn't had to watch the meltdown ..
ND offense was pedestrian w drives ending w 2 picks, 3 turnovers on downs, 1 missed FG, 380 yds total .. D made it a MASSIVE WIN and Pitt got a TD on final play this coulda been 50-9 if the O finished those drives off ..
Syracuse coach I believe has to see this spot and know total annihilation is coming .. both QB's are HORRIFIC and this ND D at home is gunna just feast on this bunch .. Cuse D is not bad vs reasonably matched up competition but can def pitch some stinkers. ND might seem assured to make the playoffs just winning out but let's play it out .. Miami is on the outs in the rankings but prob finishes w similar record AND an H2H win.. they also have a game @Pitt in the finale and they know its a dueling banjo resume comparison game. ND win was big but not THAT big... Advice for ND ... DO NOT test the meddle of the committee's preference for ND by not obliterating cuse and making their job easier... pref only goes so far and the fact that they have ND at #9 says its their spot to lose but make no mistake that spot is losable and a total misnomer because likely have GT or UVA getting the conf auto bid which jumps them into the field and the G5 team .. ND really #11 .. Ton of suitors looking to play in .. Vandy has Kentucky and @Tennessee and win em both like maaan how could they.. really how dare they.. leave a legit mega star like Pavia out one of the best stories in CFB history and very deserving to go.. Even if Miami doesn't subplant them they still got BYU or Utah there .. if either of them win the B12 I suspect B12 locks in 2 .. might get 2 anyway Utah playing great.. if USC can take down Oregon on the road are they leaving out the Ducks??..
@Mskeets
ND's real problem is closing out the year vs MEGA DUDS Cuse, @Stan w no champ game.. looks like 3 weeks of PURE CRICKETS for them while other teams are proving themselves and making moves .. Only one way to make sure the wind doesnt exit their sails at just the wrong time .. YOU ORDER A CODE RED on Private Syracuse and demand your team deliver THE MOST LOBSIDED HEAD TURNING JAW DROPPING FINAL SCORE WIN vs this DEAD ON ARRIVAL TOTAL TURD CUSE SQUAD .. like a never before seen 100-ZIP brutal beatdown .. Cuse could very well oblige them as they have absolutely no chance here and Coach Fran seems pragmatic enough to see a very winnable game vs BC in the dome next week vs their old northeast rival .. they want win #4 better start lookin ahead, I could see cuse just show up pants down bent over ready for a free for all playin like 5th string waterboys w ND playing like the playoffs depend on it .. and then must run it back in the finale @Stan .. Tree will be off their big Cal rivalry and there is just no worse spots for Stan than these 9:30PM thanksgiving saturday home spots after their big game.. I think they purposely schedule Cal the week before because they know nobodys there and now even home games are a total rollover and die spot for them .. if yer ND coach you go do it like Quint and yell FULL TROTTLE these last 2 weeks .. playoff chances IMO completely hinge on it ..
Good luck!
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