The book is a little person for offering this many points and I will accept.
Penn State has dropped four straight games but the margin tells a different story. Those four losses came by a combined 13 points total. They lost to Iowa 25-24, and their other defeats were similarly close including an overtime loss to Oregon. Despite the 3-4 record, Penn State has been competitive in every single contest.
The line is sitting between 18.5 and 20.5 points depending on the book. Penn State is 6-3 against the spread in their last nine meetings with Ohio State even though they've lost eight straight outright. The last time Ohio State was favored by this much over Penn State was 2019 when the spread was 18.5 and Penn State lost by only 11 in a 28-17 game. Eight of the last ten meetings between these teams have gone under the total.
Penn State's defense ranks 29th in scoring defense allowing just 19.4 points per game and fifth in the nation against the pass at 145 yards allowed per game. Ohio State has struggled to establish the run in Big Ten play averaging just 3.8 yards per carry against conference opponents, ranking 10th out of 18 teams. Penn State is starting a redshirt freshman quarterback in Ethan Grunkemeyer which hurts their offense, but their defense has the talent to keep this game closer than the market expects.
The interim coaching situation with Terry Smith taking over for James Franklin creates a nothing to lose scenario for Penn State. Ohio State is 6-0-1 against the spread this season which has inflated this number. The value is on Penn State catching nearly three touchdowns in a rivalry game where they've consistently covered even during their losing streak to the Buckeyes.
This is too many points.
Gimme the Nittany Lions +18.5 
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