B1G week 7

Way behind this week… couple early picks

UCLA +7.5

Florida St -10.5

Mizzou +3.5

few more later

@HockeyNight11

Good luck HN.  

Prop: Andrew Marsh over 29.5 receiving yards 

love this. Alternates as well

Neb or Mary+7?

I think Michigan is a good investment today!!!

@buceye9

 Tough with Michigan. Honestly I like the team it's just an evolving thing week to week. Andrew Marsh took over as a starter a week ago, Jamar Browder should get big time reps at WR today now... theres young guys all over the field stepping into roles that will hopefully yield better results, especially in the pass game. Should be able to control the LOS and I think they have a bigger day passing (hence the prop) but the travel is no joke and I just haven't seen them play as crisp as they need to... win today and its a clear path to the playoff though IMO. 

Boy that OSU goal line defense is impressive, eh?

My numbers like Nebraska today... alot so may be on them for a play! 

Here's where my numbers were at coming in to week 7... remember these numbers are literally just objective data plugged into my own personal formula i use. It's net yards based theres nothing biased about this. Doesn't include the many other factors that go into handicapping a game and deciding whats a "play" or not. Obviously teams that play complete cupcakes OOC and poor conference schedules will look much better piling up stats. 

1. Oregon
2. Indiana +2.5
3. USC +7.3
4. OSU +11.1
5. Michigan +13.1
6. Nebraska +13.6
7. UW +19.8
8. Iowa +26.4
9. Penn St +28.5
10. Rutgers +29.1 
11. Maryland +31.7
12. NW +31.9
13. Wisconsin +32.8
14. Minnesota +33.7
15. Purdue +34.6
16. MSU +36.9
17. Illinois +37.1
18. UCLA +37.5

Teams that have an "outlier" type game need to be adjusted a bit... Ie Illinois getting outgained by a million @ Indiana but this doesn't reflect that at all.  

3:30 

Oklahoma +2.5

Nebraska -6.5

Andrew Marsh saves the day. Huge wins on him played alternates up to 100 yards +1300 and he finished with 138. 

I think if you blindly bet the above “ratings” you would have gone 8-1 ATS in the B1G this week with the lone loss being Nebraska by 4 points. 

Impressive Indiana… they genuinely might be the best team in the conference.

Genius!

Your ratings have had Indiana and USC at top or near it since the beginning...... I didn't doubt it but I certainly did pay for it by assuming Oregon would sustain their homefield record vs visitors at 38-1 and they did not

Keep up the great BIG10 research going my friend....you have an amazing feel and knowledge of every team's strength year after year that confounds a lot of people I notice, but then things move in that direction

Thanks Hockey  

@Last2thirst

 It’s really just numbers my friend. I don’t make them up they just are what they are. Simplicity is key. 

I don’t think USC is really that good so will look to fade them. Schedule has set up pretty nice for them so far - I genuinely can’t remember the last time Michigan traveled west and played well. Looked like sh*t again fundamentally. 3rd and 30 give up a 50 yard run 

Again these aren’t the gospel but if you follow over the years you’d see PenN st has had red flags all over them since day 1 this season. These two weeks aren’t really surprising that it was close (in terms of the spread) …. Surprising that they lost outright though for sure