B1G week 4

Alright a little more time this week so let's put out our first B1G ratings now that we have 3 weeks of data and *most* teams have played at least one competent team this season. SOS is really important at this point because the numbers can be heavily skewed if a team has beat up on 3 cupcakes to date as this is a yardage differential formula. My goal is to simplify it as much as possible - team A out gains team B then chances are there more opportunities to score points and less for the opposition. Obviously in sports not all things are equal. Home field, injuries, penalties, TURNOVERS, competition gaps, etc are all VERY important. This is just a starting point for breaking down games at the start of a week. 

Can't break out of this win one, lose one trend so hopefully conference play gets things going

Game picks: 8-8
Props: 1-0 

FWIW i agree with damn near none of these positions but numbers are numbers at this stage of the game

Week 4 (SOS to date is in parentheses) 
1. Nebraska (100)
2. USC +3.9 (109)
3. Indiana +7.3 (117)
4. Washington +8.8 (128)
5. Oregon +9.3 (99)
6. Michigan +16.4 (30)
7. Penn St +16.9 (134)
8. Iowa +20.6 (80)
9. Minnesota +20.9 (93)
10. OSU +22.6 (49)
11. Illinois +30 (101)
12. Purdue +30.5 (54)
13. Wisconsin +30.7 (15)
14. Maryland +32.4 (131)
15. MSU +35.6 (118)
16. Rutgers +37.4 (121)
17. UCLA +51 (52)
18. NW +52.8 (10)

These will obviously change pretty significantly in the next few weeks as we begin H2H games but theres definitely some red flags for some teams who you typically see dominate the box scores. I'll use the obvious one with OSU at #10. Last year the national champion buckeyes were +175 net yards per game which is so dominant over 16 games when you consider a schedule of Oregon x 2, Penn St, Michigan, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee, ND. This year through 3 games down to +129 ypg. Still good but against a Ohio, Texas, Grambling State schedule. Initially seemed fine given Texas in there....but who is texas at this point? They have a serious issue at QB. Point is... in week 4 these numbers shouldn't be the gospel but might offer some insight into over value vs under value based on name that will offer the exact opposite later in the season as we get more results. Will take a look at some lines and go from there... GL this week! 

@HockeyNight11

 Great write up 

Early bird plays for me:

Iowa -2.5 

Indiana -4

USC/MSU over 55.5 

As long as the books offer me something we will find a prop!!

@HockeyNight11

 Love the props!

@Bixby17

  Trying but had nothing available last week

@HockeyNight11

 They have been hit and miss at my book as well

Good luck HN.  

@D-Town

@HockeyNight11

Yeah, I wouldn’t rush to judge the offense just yet. Remember, this was Julian Sayin’s first career start and it came against Texas, not exactly a cupcake opener. Ryan Day even admitted they played it safe with him:

“We probably could have opened it up later in the game, but his first start, we didn’t want to do that to him.” – Ryan Day

That’s why the game plan looked more conservative than what we’re used to. Brian Hartline called what Day described as an “unselfish game,” leaning on the defense and not asking Sayin to take unnecessary risks.

So yeah, the numbers aren’t flashy compared to last year, but given the circumstances, it was about keeping the kid comfortable, protecting the ball, and getting out with a win. I’d expect the playbook to open up a lot more as conference play begins. Ohio State has a tendency to start off slow. 

@DrGame

Anybody is going to be fine throwing the ball to that group of receivers. I like Sayin really have zero reservations about him. The run game is a concerning though. It’s a different team than 2024 there is no a debate there. 

2024 first 3 games didn’t have a Texas on it but they were +372 ypg compared to 129 ypg this year so not really sure what to make of that always start slow statement. Texas is a very good defensive team. Arch was a train wreck in week 1 there’s no other way to say it & just put up an 11/25 game vs UTEP. At this point I’m not even sure he’s a major D1 caliber QB. 

@HockeyNight11

 I agree, it took the big bombs to pull away from Ohio U. Maybe a letdown game? In the Urban Meyer era interstate teams were usually crushed. 

Spending my week adding a 2nd AND 3rd ratings system - will test this week and see how things turn out. If it's descent will include in next weeks thread. Anyway heres the full card for the week with 2 added plays and a prop from the early week post! 

Iowa -2.5 
Indiana -4
USC/MSU over 55.5 
Miami (OH) +2
Duke -3 

Prop: Jordan Marshall (Mich) over 35.5 rush yards 

I really wanted to play Klein again, but coming back from the ankle injury. He looks good to go but another component is that Hogan Hansen is also getting healthy and played last week vs CMU. Expect we'll see more 2 TE sets from UM and given some of the OL injuries/advantages in the trenches size wise I think we may see a lot more of a heavy style of play from Michigan today. Hansen is a good pass catcher as well so expect he will take a little from Klein. Lean on the RB depth and wear down that significantly smaller Nebraska front to open things up a bit over 60 minutes. As far as the game goes, I really expect Michigan to show up today but I need to see it first. The early 2020's were cool but these aren't the same teams at all so time for this new wave to show us who they are. Same for Nebraska - are they for real or a product of the schedule? 

Goodluck HockeyNight, I took McCulley Under 41.5 receiving yards. Believe between Underwood, Haynes, and Marshall the wolvs will play clock control with the run game.

11 

@UNIMAN

Agree. Think with Nebraska playing as much man as they do getting Bryce on the roll outs is gonna be problematic. Just let the kid be who he is and not as predictable as Oklahoma. Never gave him a chance… run, run, pass. Difference today is the Nebraska DL is undersized. Also like Mich pass rush if they can get Raiola on the move his passing numbers are drastically worse. Puts the ball in harms way. Total show me spot for both though not worth my money today. 

@UNIMAN

Wish we could get some Hogan Hansen or Andrew Marsh props up there. 

Gosh every set of numbers I had said Maryland +10 is a gift and I let it pass by because of that SOS. 

Note: SOS is probably not worth that much when you’re talking about the mid tiers of college football

Fickle next to be unemployed?

TBD - let’s see if the Gators have a pulse tonight.

 
Iowa -2.5 

Indiana -4 

USC/MSU over 55.5 

Miami (OH) +2

Duke -3 

Prop: Jordan Marshall (Mich) over 35.5 rush yards  

Game picks: 4-1 (3-0 B1G)

prop: 1-0

Jordan Marshall (Mich) over 35.5 rush yards 

tailed 

Mia(Ohio)  

must have played a different team in the 2nd half 

Crazy 

Congrats on The prop and great week!