UNA-1.5

39-23 YTD

I looked at this game from multiple different angles and played devils advocate with myself and here’s what I found.

Alabama A and M is 6-0 at home, but a dog against a similar HBCU school. Identical records 5-4. Where’s the disconnect that makes UNA a slight fave and the side of smart money?

The SOS is separated by 129 schools. UNA is coming off a win at San Francisco and Alabama A and M is coming off a win two nights ago against an NAIA D2 school that wasn’t even lopsided.

Stats wise, A&M shoots poorly from the field and from 3. Not a bad FT pct but doesn’t get to the line much.

UNA is better in every meaningful category except bpg which is close to equal. Home court advantage is a metric of course but UNA is so much better in all the categories that  home court be damned here. 

Play UNA-1.5 

bol today man 

Lines going up fast.  -2 1/2 and -3 1/2 at some of my books.  

@D-Town

 Hopefully that’s sharp money!

I think 1st half-1.5 right now is good also, especially because of who Alabama A&M just played 2 night ago, that NAIA school. UNA might be a shock to the system after playing such a cupcake. Also UNA just beat San Fran at USF, riding high from a psychological perspective. Conjecture of course, but reasonable assumption.

Your wisc FH was SHARP ASF yesterday. These guys lost the game on FG but was able to win FH by 3. 

@Noonball

 UNA should have fresh legs as they haven't played since December 3rd.

@ayashifx55

 Thanks. The line was pretty sharp and spot on. Caught a break but appreciate the kind words and didn’t think fg was a good bet.

@n2deep

 Yep, finals. Curious what records are coming out of finals break.

I almost bet FH and FG because someone said he was on FG instead. Glad i didnt tag the FG. You know those damn college BB , always some crazy shit happening after HALF-TIME. 

@Noonball

 UNA was runner up last year in the ASUN Conference to Lipscomb.  And more importantly to us, they were a cash machine 24-11 ATS. 

Common opponent this year UNA lost to Clemson by 20 and AL A&M lost to the Tigers by 36.

We'll see what this year brings but I would think the glass is still half full and they build on the success of last year.

Good Fortune! 

@Xdoge

 Good stuff man! I saw that when comparing their schedules and even better is UNA returns 64 pct of their scoring and A and M only has 25 pct back. Be wary if the number jumps too high. I have 1.5. I think some books it’s jumped to 4.5.

Like you alluded too, books typically find a way to avoid being middled and the line it ends on will generally cover as a rule still.

The talent disparity is so much that I’d feel safe laying 3.5 or 4 without worrying about a backdoor. I had UNA 10 pts better in a vaccuum.

Good luck Noon 

GL 

@totter

 Thanks man! You too!

@Noonball

 North Alabama seems the play. Will they be rusty after a 12 day layoff after their impressive win against an uninspired San Francisco team?

Also, these teams hate each other. It's an intense rivalry which brings out the best in both teams. No playbfor me but I presict a close game. 

@flutie

 I agree, huge HBCU rivalry. I’d be guessing on rest vs rust because I found nothing to compare it to. 
I thankfully took it right away and have -1.5 so 4.5 is quite the jump. 
I will say the talent disparity is massive. UNA dominates at the guard position and rebounds better. If you change take UNA-2 1sr half. I think it’s a good bet that hits at 61 pct of the time at A and M

@Noonball

 FYI - 

University of North Alabama is not a HBCU as Bama A&M is...

They don't like Bama A&M, but it's not because UNA is an HBCU.  They were a perennial power in D2 football in the 1990's and recently made the move to D1.

@Noonball

 Late to the party, think I’ll have to take the ML (just incase) because laying 4 on the road can be a bit risky.  Agree the home court advantage doesn’t factor tonight.

Also, getting weird vibes on IW, just don’t think TCU will take the game seriously, bit of a trap game ATS.

Going to throw in Dolphins +3.5 too, has it been a visitor winner on a Monday night since week 11.

Parlay: UNA (ml), IW +19.5, Dolphins +3.5

@Parlay_pal

 Nice! I always bet on Tomlin when they don’t seem to be the play and against when Steelers seem like obvious play.

GL on your par! Hope it hits!!!!

Plus, prime time under dogs have been hitting

@Xdoge

 Thanks for correcting me! Bad info. Appreciate the education and apologize for the assumption!!! Just tried to make the write more interesting. Nothing about my capping involved my assuming these were HBCU rivals. In fact would’ve leaned other way if that mattered.

I see 1st half is -1.5, not 2. Late fouls and back doors aren’t in the equation from a traditional sense. Really like this play for those interested. Like really like this!