Duke vs Houston Predictions, Picks, and Odds for March Madness Sweet 16 Matchup

The Duke Blue Devils and Houston Cougars will meet tonight in a thrilling contest to win the right to go to the Elite Eight.

Duke has looked incredible through its two games in the March Madness bracket. It has faced two non-Power Six opponents but has demolished both. Its latest victim was James Madison, where the Blue Devils seemingly couldn't miss and won in a 38-point blowout.

Houston has had a more challenging time. It won against Texas A&M to get here, but it wasn't pretty. The Cougs saw a double-digit lead erased multiple times, culminating in an overtime win. 

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the March Madness odds and give it in our March Madness picks for March 29.

For more analysis of this game, check out Jason Logan's Duke vs. Houston props!

Duke vs Houston odds

Teams
Houston	-4	-4
	-112	-107
Duke	+4	+4
	-108	-105

Result
Over	133.5	133.5
	-108	-104
Under	133.5	133.5
	-112	-112

Teams
Houston	-205	-189
Duke	+170	+166

Pinnacle odds only available in Canada.

Duke vs Houston picks and predictions

The Houston Cougars could be in trouble here, but I don't have a strong enough edge to bet against them? What am I strong about? The Duke Blue Devils' shotmaking is showing up and it's a critical factor in this game. 

I've written about this repeatedly throughout this tournament, saying there are opportunities to score against the vaulted Houston defense if you can reverse the ball well and have elite shotmaking.

Look at what Texas A&M just did: the Aggies became the first team to score over 90 points against Houston since 2017. What did Texas A&M illustrate throughout its late-season run? Elite shooting through its backcourt. Duke can do something similar and I'm grabbing Jared McCain Over 13.5 points as my best bet.

McCain is the best shooter on this Duke roster, which was on display against James Madison. Against the Dukes, he was simply unconscious. He knocked down eight threes and dropped 30 points. I'm not expecting a repeat of that, but his season-long numbers inspire confidence that he'll cash this bet.

He'll enter this game in the 80th percentile among spot-up shooters, shooting around 40% on such sets. That knockdown shooting will be most valuable against a Cougars defense that collapses one side of the court and forces you to find those open options.

I'm expecting Duke to get McCain enough clean looks here because they've shown the ability to be the willing passers you have to be against a Houston-type defense.

Additionally, the one place on paper you can get this Houston defense in the halfcourt is off screens. They rank mostly average defending screens while — as you might imagine — every other area is elite. McCain has thrived off screens this season and has been the most used option on them, too, being the primary option 41% of the time.

McCain is playing the best basketball of his career right now and I'm willing to return to the well. His shooting is invaluable in this matchup, so I'd expect him to be looked at early and often.

My best bet: Jared McCain Over 13.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Duke vs Houston same-game parlay

Jared McCain Over 13.5 points

Duke moneyline

+305 at DraftKings

Houston has yet again been battered with injuries, so much so that I have to wonder if something they do stylistically has caused them to occur frequently.

They'll have a full complement of players, but most are battling injuries. That holds particularly true with J'wan Roberts. He's the primary post option for the Cougs and his health is paramount in this matchup.

If he's not at full strength, he can't exploit Duke's defensive issues in the post. And if the Cougars can't do that, they won't win.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Duke vs Houston spread and Over/Under analysis

• Duke has been impressive coming down the stretch. The Blue Devils own a 7-3 ATS record over their last 10 games despite losing back-to-back to UNC and NC State to end the season.
• Before losing to Iowa State in the Big 12 title game, Houston had won seven straight games. While the wins have been happening, the Cougars haven't been particularly dominating with have a modest 5-5 ATS record in their last 10 games.
• For one reason or another, Houston's defense has faltered down the stretch and it's allowed more points than usual. The Cougs enter this game with three of their last four games going Over. Before then, four of their five proceeding games had gone under.

Duke vs Houston betting trend to know

Duke has cashed the moneyline in 21 of its last 26 games (+10.30 units / 7% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Houston.

Duke vs Houston game info

Duke vs Houston key injuries

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