Last year, Rich Strike recorded an 80-1 upset in the 2022 Kentucky Derby (G1), providing hope for all the longshots in Saturday’s 149th running of the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.
Let’s preview the outsiders among the 23 entries, ranked by order of preference. These horses are lower on the Kentucky Derby odds board. All odds below are courtesy of bet365 as of May 6, 2023 following the scratch of Derby favorite Forte.
For our top eight contenders, see the analysis of Kentucky Derby favorites.
Rocket Can – Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott, Longshot, 28-1
Rocket Can raced forwardly finishing second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes two starts back, but fell too far off the early pace in the Arkansas Derby. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott adds blinkers to keep him closer, and Rocket Can is training well at Churchill Downs, so the gray colt will look to outrun his long odds from an outside post.
Disarm – Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen Longshot, 25-1
Disarm came along late for Steve Asmussen, recording a second in the Louisiana Derby and a third in the Lexington Stakes. The well-built chestnut appears to be training out of his skin for the Kentucky Derby, generating a buzz from onlookers at Churchill Downs. He’ll need to run faster than recent efforts, but Disarm may be ready to jump forward with a strong showing.
Hit Show – Manny Franco, Brad Cox, Longshot, 28-1
Hit Show opened 2023 with a pair of convincing wins, including the Withers Stakes in mid-February, and the gray colt didn’t experience the best of trips when missing by a nose in the Wood Memorial. He faces a class check and must work out a trip from the innermost post, but Hit Show remains a promising type.
More Kentucky Derby Picks
Reincarnate – John Velazquez, Tim Yakteen, Longshot, 28-1
Reincarnate posted a pacesetting win in the Sham Stakes earlier this year, but he didn’t make the lead in the Rebel Stakes or Arkansas Derby, finishing a non-threatening third both times. He’ll probably look to show speed, and if the gray three-year-old makes the early lead, Reincarnate has a chance to surprise.
Mandarin Hero – Kazushi Kimura, Terunobu Fujita, Longshot, 12-1
Japanese-based Mandarin Hero ran extremely well when making his U.S. debut in the Santa Anita Derby, overcoming a less-than-favorable trip to miss by a nose in second. That start may benefit him in the Kentucky Derby, and Mandarin Hero will be intriguing from an outside post if he gets in off the also-eligible list.
Mage - Javier Castellano, Gustavo Delgado, Longshot, 11-1
Mage attracted notice finishing second to Forte in the Florida Derby, offering an eye-catching rally from far back. Slow starts and a lack of experience (three starts) are a concern for the Kentucky Derby, but Mage can’t be completely dismissed based on his potential.
Confidence Game – James Graham, Keith Desormeaux, Longshot, 18-1
Confidence Game established himself as a Kentucky Derby contender winning the Rebel Stakes in late February, but he hasn’t raced in the 10-week interim. That’s not been a favorable strategy, but Confidence Game appears to be training well and is a two-time winner at Churchill Downs.
Sun Thunder – Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek, Longshot, 50-1
Sun Thunder ran well when second in the Risen Star Stakes three back, but he must turn things around following a couple of unplaced efforts.
Cyclone Mischief – Joel Rosario, Dale Romans, Longshot, 28-1
Cyclone Mischief will look to be an early factor after weakening to third in the Florida Derby, but the added distance and outside post represent obstacles for the impressive one-turn allowance winner. He’ll need a scratch to draw in off the also-eligible list.
Raise Cain – Gerardo Corrales, Ben Colebrook, Longshot, 66-1
Raise Cain thrived over a one-turn mile in the Gotham Stakes two back, but the late-running colt will need to show more following a non-threatening fifth in the Blue Grass.
Jace’s Road – Florent Geroux, Brad Cox, Longshot, 50-1
Jace’s Road concluded his two-year-old season in an encouraging manner, recording a convincing stakes win at Fair Grounds in December, but his Brisnet Speed ratings have not improved at age three.
Where to bet on the Kentucky Derby?
Not sure where or how to place your bet? No problem. We've listed the best Kentucky Derby betting sites around and what regions they are legal in. These sites are secure and trusted sportsbooks and horse racing betting sites.
