Time to dive into my NBA picks as the Minnesota Timberwolves protected home court and have the chance to take an all-but-insurmountable 3-0 lead over the Phoenix Suns with another win this evening.
The Suns came into the season as one of the NBA odds favorites to win the championship, but my Timberwolves vs. Suns predictions feel they could go home in Round 1 if they can’t raise their level of play tonight.
Let's break down tonight's matchup, as defense will continue to define the series between these star-laden teams.
Timberwolves vs Suns predictions
My best bet
Under 207 (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This has been a defense-first series through two games, and I suspect that will be the way of Game 3 as well.
Rudy Gobert has been a terror to the Phoenix Suns. He’s done well in every variation of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ schemes, whether in drop, playing at the level, or even switching onto the perimeter.
Now that he has a roster that complements rather than relies exclusively on his defensive ability, it’s undeniable he remains elite defensively in the playoffs and not just in the regular season.
But despite double-digit victories in both games and a particularly strong outing in Game 1, the Wolves offensive woes have not been fixed.
Phoenix has committed a combination of forced and unforced errors that made the Wolves offense look much better than it is in practice, and some of that should come down to earth on Friday.
Despite winning handily, the Wolves scored just 102 points in Game 2. Even that required the Suns to concede a free throw rate of 34.7 per 100 possessions, the highest mark of any game in the playoffs. They hit them too, going 26-30 from the line.
Phoenix also committed 20 turnovers that led to 31 Minnesota points. Nearly a third of the Wolves' offense came as a result of a Suns turnover.
Some of those turnovers were because Jaden McDaniels and the like did a good job pressuring the perimeter. Many were just bad luck or lack of focus from Phoenix like a player dribbling the ball off their leg or throwing a pass into the second row. It wasn’t all the result of pressure.
If Phoenix cleans up their process even just a bit in Game 3, the Wolves offense could stall out.
And while the Suns' offense has been atrocious, their defense stepped up in Game 2.
In Game 1, Devin Booker drew the primary Anthony Edwards assignment, and it didn’t go well. Looking through all of Ant’s shot attempts, when guarded by Booker he consistently generated open shots. Booker showed a lack of effort on contests and was often in a poor stance and getting blown by on drives.
By the time they changed it up and tried new defenders on Edwards in Game 1, Ant was in a complete flow state on offense and was able to hit numerous isolation pull-up threes that turned the game into a rout.
In Game 2, Bradley Beal was primary on Ant, and just his improved effort made a world of difference.
The Suns did a better job of sticking to the gap-help scheme that depressed Edwards’ scoring in the regular season, forcing him to get off the ball or crowding his drives by shading to the ball. Edwards finished 3-12 for just 15 points.
Game 7s are famous for being ugly, low-scoring games because of the immense pressure both teams are under. A Game 3 with the chance to go up 3-0 is similar in that regard.
With the success both teams have had defending each other and the immense stakes of Friday’s game, I’m expecting a tightly-played, low-scoring affair.
Timberwolves vs Suns same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 207
Anthony Edwards Under 24.5 points
Devin Booker Under 25.5 points
In many ways, the story of the series so far is Edwards drastically outplaying Booker. McDaniels has taken Booker completely out of the series by denying his drives and avoiding any foul drawing. Booker has also only scored 26 or more once in his last eight games.
While Ant shook loose in Game 1, the Suns have done a solid job defending him this season. In addition to getting back to their gap help principles in Game 2, the Suns also decided to show aggressive help off the strong side corner when Ant came off a side pick and roll. This wrinkle allowed Beal and the helper to both contest Ant’s pull ups coming off the screen.
With all their attention focused on defending Edwards again, I like him to go Under here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Timberwolves vs Suns odds
Timberwolves vs Suns live odds
Get the latest Timberwolves vs Suns NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Timberwolves vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +3.5 (-110) | Phoenix -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +135 | Phoenix -160
- Over/Under: Over 209 (-110) | Under 209 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Suns opened as 3.5-point favorites over Minnesota, and that’s climbed to -4.5 as of Thursday night.
- The Suns are just 16-24-1 against the spread at home this season.
- Friday’s total has seen some variance, opening at 208.5, rising to 209.5 and since then dropping as low as 206.5 as of Thursday evening.
- The Under is 23-17-1 in Suns home games.
Timberwolves vs Suns trend
The Under is 23-17-1 in Suns home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Suns.
Timberwolves vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, 4-26-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Suns latest injuries
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