After a great set of first legs, the Champions League quarterfinals wrap up this week, and amongst the best matchups is today's showdown between Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid.
The first matchup saw Atletico taking a 2-1 lead to Germany but will Dortmund’s late goal save their Champions League hopes? We’re set for another fascinating matchup here, so read our free betting picks and ensure you’re fully informed.
Don’t miss our Borussia Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid picks and predictions below.
Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid best odds
Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid picks and predictions
The first leg of this tie saw Atletico win 2-1 in what was a classic Diego Simeone performance. They may have won 2-1 but they had just 33% of possession, a real rear-guard action, in which they invited Dortmund pressure before hitting them on the counter.
Despite having half the possession of the German team, they had 14 shots to Dortmund’s 12 and over double the shots on target. If it wasn’t for Sebastien Haller’s 81st-minute goal, this would have been a terrible result for Dortmund.
Alvaro Morata didn’t score last week as the goals were saved for Rodrigo De Paul and Samuel Lino, but he had a strong performance, with three shots, one on target, and was an integral part of the way they set up before being taken off in the 61st minute with the team up two goals. He'll be just as important on Tuesday.
Throughout his career, he’s been criticized for not reaching the levels expected. We’ve seen him play for Atletico, their arch-rivals Real Madrid, Juventus, and Chelsea, yet he’s never truly been loved anywhere. He’s been picked 71 times for Spain and his 34-goal return is solid, yet there’s always a feeling he should have done more.
When he’s good, you can see he has the raw tools to be excellent. He’s deceptively big, fairly quick, and reads the game excellently. Now 31 years old, he’s having a good season, alongside the exceptional Antoine Griezmann.
He's scored 14 goals in 28 La Liga games, of which just 21 were starts, and has been averaging 2.3 shots per game, which shows how accurate he is. He has 1.66 shots on target per game domestically, the fourth-highest total in La Liga, and better than anyone ahead of him in terms of goals.
He’s also put up good numbers in Europe with five goals in the competition and has seen his shot total rise to 2.6 per game. With his finishing excellent, it makes him a dangerous proposition for Dortmund, especially with the likely game script.
It’s Dortmund who need to go on the offensive and score, meaning Atletico can sit back, absorb pressure, and hit the Germans on the counter, just as they did in the first leg. That extra space Morata will find on the counter should give him opportunities he'll need to find the back of the net.
My best bet: Alvaro Morata to score (+134 at TonyBet)
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Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid same-game parlay (SGP)
Alvaro Morato to score
Both teams to score
Marcos Llorente Over 0.5 fouls committed
We’re also going to back both teams to score. We saw that happen in the first leg and with Dortmund desperate for goals and Atletico excellent on the counter, it really should happen again in Germany. Such has been the case in 57.1% of Dortmund’s home games in the league, including six of their last eight on home soil.
Finally, we’ll back Marcos Llorente to go Over 0.5 fouls. The Spaniard operates in Atletico’s midfield and will be tasked with ensuring Dortmund’s midfield, including Marcel Sabitzer and Emre Can, can’t dictate the tempo.
We saw him commit one foul in the first leg and that should be matched or exceeded here. We’ve seen throughout the years how Simeone’s teams take turns with tactical fouls when in big knockout games and it’s likely to happen again with the score so closely poised.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
It goes without saying but the result of this game will be dictated by how well Atletico can withstand Dortmund's pressure. If it’s anything like as well in the first leg, they’ll be a great price at +204.
Dortmund are favorites and really should win, especially given the home advantage, but it’s so rarely that simple. The real difference could be experience and Simeone’s team is far more streetwise and experienced at this stage of the competition. That could be key and with a draw enough to earn them qualification, I’d take +270 as the pick of the moneyline options.
The Over 2.5 goals is -146 and the Under is +125. The first leg was a 3-goal game and it’s obvious why it’s the most likely option here with Dortmund looking to throw everything at the game to try and score.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid game info
| Location: | Westfalenstadion, Dortmund, Germany |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 16, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
| Weather: | Showers, 46F. |
Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid key injuries
Borussia Dortmund: Ramy Bensebaini LB (Out), Sebastien Haller STR (Questionable).
Atletico Madrid: Thomas Lemar FWR (Out), Mario Hermoso CB (Out), Memphis Depay (Questionable).
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