The New York Knicks were lucky to escape with a 2-0 lead in this first-round series against the Philadelphia 76ers. Philadelphia's final-minute collapse came partly because of the 76ers’ mistakes and because the officiating crew entirely forgot what a foul is.
However, that's in the past. The NBA’s last two-minute report has no impact on Game 3 or my Knicks vs. 76ers predictions tonight.
Philadelphia is favored to snag its first playoff win tonight, but that may be a mistake by the sportsbooks. More precisely, it creates clear value in our free NBA picks as we dig into the best bets for April 25.
Knicks vs 76ers predictions
My best bet
Knicks moneyline (+196 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Philadelphia 76ers have every ounce of motivation to win this game. If they lose tonight, they effectively will have botched another season of Joel Embiid’s prime.
An existential crisis would follow losing tonight, as Embiid has two seasons remaining on his contract before a player option in 2026-27. That will dictate plenty of conversation about this Game 3.
Guffawing the end of Game 2 may overshadow that the 76ers still beat the spread that night, but doing so by 1.5 points — or even 5.5 if Philadelphia had won — should not move a spread as much as this situation somehow has. And making a bet because the officials now owe a team is the exact definition of a bad process.
But beyond all that, there is no precedent for successfully betting against OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson as underdogs. The dynamic duo has the New York Knicks 6-0 outright as underdogs when playing together.
It is part of a larger trend of success with those two. They are 21-2 outright and 16-6-1 against the spread in 23 games together, including this series. While going 6-0 SU as underdogs is a sample size bordering on trustworthy, going 21-2 SU and 16-6-1 ATS are viable data sets.
If New York was a 4.5-point favorite in each of the first two games of this series, it would make sense to be a 1- or 2-point underdog tonight due to the change in homecourt advantage. Boosting that by more than a bucket because of the intangibles of the 2-0 deficit in the series is an overreaction to things we cannot measure.
However, the elevated spread also creates excessive value in the moneyline. Given Anunoby’s and Brunson’s success together as underdogs thus far, that value is too ripe to ignore.
Knicks vs 76ers same-game parlay (SGP)
Knicks moneyline
76ers first half moneyline
Jalen Brunson Under 28.5 points
Our Jason Logan spent some time this week focusing on how sportsbooks have adjusted the first-half spreads when a team goes home for Game 3 down 2-0. Tonight’s full-game spread is Philadelphia -5.5, but the first-half spread is -4.5. Normally, the first-half spread would be about, ya know, half the full-game spread.
The value in betting on the home team in that situation is gone, but there is still some trust in its moneyline. Combining that with the Knicks to win the game creates an escalated payout in this same-game parlay.
Adding a fade of Brunson's points prop furthers that value, even if it is also the sensical play. Brunson has scored 22 and 24 points in the first two games of this series, shooting a woeful 29.1% from the field. Tyrese Maxey has made his life miserable, but Brunson has still found ways to positively impact games.
He should lean into that latter approach tonight and take fewer than the 27.5 shots averaged in the first two games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Knicks vs 76ers odds
Knicks vs 76ers live odds
Get the latest Knicks vs 76ers NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Knicks vs 76ers opening odds
- Spread: New York +4.5 (-110) | Philadelphia -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York +125 | Philadelphia -150
- Over/Under: Over 205.5 (-110) | Under 205.5 (-110)
Knicks vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis
- After Game 2’s comedic ending, the Knicks opened as 4.5-point underdogs late on Monday, a number that held steady until some Thursday steam, pushing it to +5.5 and even +6 at some books.
- The total opened at 205.5 and fell late Monday to 204.5 before crashing to 202.5 on Wednesday. However, it rebounded to 204.5 to 205.5 this morning.
- These two have now played six times in 2024, with New York going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.
Knicks vs 76ers trend
The Knicks are 2-0 as underdogs against the 76ers this year. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. 76ers.
Knicks vs 76ers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Knicks vs 76ers latest injuries
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