Best NBA Player Props Today: Paolo Powers Magic in Cleveland

Prop bet #1: Maxed Out

The Philadelphia 76ers’ gas tank could be running dry, which doesn’t seem possible for Tyrese Maxey and his perpetual high energy. Philadelphia’s fatigue is playing a factor in this quarterfinal series, manifesting in sloppy fourth-quarter finishes.

Maxey was outstanding in the opening two games, putting up efforts of 33 and 35 points on a collective 26-for-48 shooting (54%). However, with Philadelphia leaning heavily into stars Maxey and Joel Embiid, that weight is beginning to wear. 

Maxey has shot a combined 17-for-42 in the past two outings, with scores of 25 and 23 points. He’s logged 40-plus minutes in all four games of a very physical matchup with the New York Knicks. Game 5 features the lowest total of the series, with the Over/Under at 203.5 points. The offensive pace of this quarterfinal matchup has been among the most methodical in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs.

Maxey’s scoring prop for Game 5 is at 25.5 points Over/Under, with some books down to 24.5 O/U on Tuesday morning. Most shops have adjusted on the Under and have a hefty price tag on Maxey scoring less than 25, as expensive as -134 at some sharp books.

Player projections for Game 5 vary on Maxey’s output. Some call for a ceiling of 26.5 points but the majority of models are calling for a sub-25 night from the 76ers guard. My number comes out to around 23.5 points.

Tyrese Maxey prop: Under 25.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Banchero on the Boards

A Game 5 showdown awaits Orlando Magic star Paolo Banchero, who has helped dig the Magic out of a 0-2 hole in this quarterfinal clash. 

Banchero enters this crucial contest with fresh legs after playing limited minutes the past two outings. With Orlando squashing the Cavs, holding leads of 30 and 43 points, respectively, he’s logged just 29 minutes in both Game 3 and Game 4.

With the series swinging back to Cleveland and the Magic pegged as 5-point underdogs, expect Banchero to see floor time more in line with the 40-plus minutes he put in during the opening two games.

He grabbed only four rebounds in Game 4’s one-sided win and that’s dragging down his player prop for Game 5, with books setting his rebounding total at 6.5 O/U after closing at 7.5 O/U for the first four games.

Banchero had seven boards in Game 1 and only three in Game 2, but hit the glass for 14 rebounds in Game 3 despite the limited floor time. His player projections for tonight call for between 6.8 and 8.4 rebounds, with all models coming in above this current prop total.

My number sits at 7.3 rebounds from Orlando’s second-year forward, which should have Over 6.5 boards priced in the -130 range. Most sportsbooks are higher on that side, with the Over as pricy as -145.

Paolo Banchero prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (-124 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: Pass the Bucks

The Indiana Pacers have a broken Milwaukee Bucks team on the ropes in Game 5, with Milwaukee’s roster wearing thin due to big-name injuries. 

The NBA odds have Indiana installed as a 4-point road favorite and after a solid thumping of the Bucks in Game 4 (the biggest lead was 19 points), the Pacers could put their opening-round foes away easily tonight.

Indiana’s bench has been big during this series, namely backup point guard T.J. McConnell. He’s coming off an eight-point, eight-assist effort over 18 minutes in Game 4 and enters with an assist prop at 3.5.

McConnell, who averaged 5.5 assists over 18 minutes in the regular season, is projected for another solid showing in reserve, with some models pegging him for close to six assists. My number comes out to 4.7 helpers with McConnell averaging 5.3 potential assists for the series, including eight possible dimes in Game 4. 

He has a higher ceiling for Game 5, given starting PG Tyrese Haliburton is dealing with a bad back and Milwaukee’s best perimeter pest, Patrick Beverley, has been limited with an oblique injury (played only 21 minutes in Game 4). Any opportunity to rest Haliburton will tack on extra minutes for McConnell on Tuesday night.

T.J. McConnell prop: Over 3.5 assists (-125 at DraftKings)