It’s not always the best team that advances in the NBA playoffs, but the healthiest. The Milwaukee Bucks are finding this out the hard way in their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series with the Indiana Pacers.
With the Bucks’ backs against the wall at home in tonight's Game 5, our Pacers vs. Bucks predictions explain why Milwaukee will be packing its bags for the summer. Find out more in our NBA picks for April 30.
Pacers vs Bucks predictions
My best bet
Pacers -4 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
We’ve already seen a generational revolution in the 2024 NBA Playoffs (bye-bye LeBron and KD), and the Indiana Pacers have a perfect opportunity to send the Milwaukee Bucks’ veterans packing in Game 5 tonight.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard out, Milwaukee is leaning heavily on veterans like Patrick Beverley, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez to keep the team afloat. Two of those guys — Beverley and Middleton — have shown up on the Game 5 injury report. Not great.
Asking those aging legs to log 40 quality minutes in a do-or-die postseason game is a tall order for Milwaukee on Tuesday. The Bucks were able to squeeze 61 points out of that trio in Game 4, but without steady support from the bench (averaging only 18 points), the well will run dry in Game 5.
The Pacers, on the other hand, are getting excellent minutes from their reserves (25.5 points per game) and bring an energy that Milwaukee just can’t match at this point in the playoffs. Indiana’s starters all scored 13-plus points in Game 4, with the bench bringing 32 points to the table.
The term “threw everything at them/us” was used by both coaches after Game 4, which was close for the first half (a 3-point game at halftime). But exhaustion and age showed up in the final 24 minutes, with the Bucks coming out flat in the third quarter and unable to close the gap in the final frame.
Even with Milwaukee marching out a skeleton crew, Pacers head coach Rick Carlise is well aware of how hard it is to close out a playoff series on the road. He’s not letting his group get comfortable ahead of Game 5.
“If Lillard and Giannis didn’t play another second, they’ve got plenty over there to beat us in the remainder of this series,” Carlisle told the media. “This will be the hardest game of this series. I’ve seen this movie too many times.”
The spread for Game 5 sits as low as Pacers -4, which is only a slight uptick from the Game 1 line that closed with Indiana as 1.5-point chalk on the road — a line set with Lillard in action and the Bucks veterans with gas in the tank.
Game 5 is a much tougher scenario for the broken Bucks.
Pacers vs Bucks same-game parlay (SGP)
Pacers -4
T.J. McConnell Over 3.5 assists
Brook Lopez Over 15.5 points
The busted Bucks gave all they had left in Game 4, and it wasn’t enough. The Pacers put away this series tonight.
T.J. McConnell could get extra run with Tyrese Haliburton hurting. He’s projected for closer to five dimes in Game 5.
Meanwhile, Lopez is one of the only healthy bodies left for the Bucks. The center's 18 shots in Game 4 tied a season high and he could have eclipsed 27 points if he hit any of his four free throws.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pacers vs Bucks odds
Pacers vs Bucks live odds
Get the latest Pacers vs Bucks NBA playoff odds for Game 5.
Pacers vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Indiana -3.5 (-110) | Milwaukee +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana -165 | Milwaukee +135
- Over/Under: Over 216.5 (-110) | Under 216.5 (-110)
Pacers vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
• With elimination on the doorstep, Milwaukee opened as a 3.5-point home underdog for Game 5. However, with Giannis and Lillard still likely sidelined, and Patrick Beverley and Khris Middleton showing up on the injury report, the market has ticked up to Pacers -4.5 as of Tuesday morning.
• Haliburton is currently listed as "questionable" with back spasms. This was the case ahead of Game 4, but Haliburton was able to play 32 minutes in the one-sided win, finishing with 24 points — his best performance of the series.
• The Over/Under total for tonight hit the board at 216.5 points and has dipped to 215.5 as of Tuesday morning. This O/U looks very different than the totals for the opening games of the series, reflecting the loss of Lillard to the Bucks’ offense.
• According to Covers Consensus data, 52% of picks are taking the points with Milwaukee. However, BetMGM books are reporting contrasting splits, as they’ve drawn 71% of tickets and 65% of the handle on Indiana. The total is seeing 82% of bets on the Over, but just 42% of money is backing a higher-scoring finish tonight.
Pacers vs Bucks trend
The Bucks are 23-41-1 ATS as underdogs since the 2020-21 season. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Bucks.
Pacers vs Bucks game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports WI, Bally Sports Indiana |
Pacers vs Bucks latest injuries
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