Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic will travel to Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse to take on Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers in tonight's Game 5.
He may not be the biggest name, but my Magic vs. Cavaliers predictions love Gary Harris to leave his mark offensively in this matchup — and you can find out why in my NBA picks for Tuesday, April 30.
Magic vs Cavaliers predictions
My best bet
Gary Harris Over 5.5 points (-125 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
We haven't even seen a competitive game in this series. The Cleveland Cavaliers controlled both games in The Land, and the Orlando Magic returned the favor in Florida. Orlando was able to empty its bench in Games 3 and 4, giving time to G-League regulars like Jett Howard.
What I'm getting at here is the Magic starters weren't playing their usual allotment of minutes. For someone like Gary Harris, I think his points prop is being adjusted because of the decreased minutes and production to a number where we should play the Over.
After playing 33 and 34 minutes in Cleveland, Harris never eclipsed 24 minutes played in Orlando and went Under his points total in both games. His minutes weren't down because his role on the Magic has changed; Jamahl Mosley was just playing everyone off the bench because of the score in each game.
Harris plays a vital role as the primary defender on Donovan Mitchell, and he's really their only shooter capable of spacing the floor for Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Harris is going to see minutes, and he'll be letting it fly from deep.
The adjustment down to 5.5 for Harris' points total really grabs my attention because he's mainly a shooter. When his total is sitting at 6.5 or 7.5, Harris could bang in two threes, but you'd still need one more basket to push us Over the number. I don't necessarily expect him to go Over the number on only two 3-pointers, but at least it is in play for us as an option.
Harris is projected to score 7.6 points which allows us to price the Over 5.5 points at -191. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 18%.
Magic vs Cavaliers same-game parlay (SGP)
Gary Harris Over 5.5 points
Harris Over 1.5 assists
Paolo Banchero Over 21.5 points
I was highlighting the decreased minutes and production in Games 3 and 4 for Harris and how it was adjusting his points total down, but I don't think it's an accurate representation of his role on this Magic squad.
It was more of a byproduct of the score in each game. With that being said, you're seeing value on the Over for several of Harris' props on Tuesday, and it's why I'm going to pair the Over on his assists total with the Over on his points total. I just believe his minutes will be higher than how he is being priced.
If Harris is on the floor for 30+ minutes, knocking down shots and hitting the Over on his part of this SGP, that means he will also be spacing the floor for Banchero. If Banchero has more room to operate in the lane, thanks to Harris, he should have an easier time hitting the Over on his points total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Magic vs Cavaliers odds
Magic vs Cavaliers live odds
Get the latest Magic vs Cavaliers NBA playoff odds for Game 5.
Magic vs Cavaliers opening odds
- Spread: Orlando +5.5 (-110) | Cleveland -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Orlando +190 | Cleveland -230
- Over/Under: Over 203.5 (-110) | Under 203.5 (-110)
Magic vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cavaliers opened as 5.5-point favorites at FanDuel, and while we did see the line drop to Cavaliers -4.5, it has since moved back up to Cavaliers -5.
- The total opened at 203.5 at FanDuel and has since dropped two and a half points to 201.
- Make sure to shop around before placing a bet on the total, as there are some 202s out there in the market.
- The totals in this series continue to trade as some of the lowest game totals I have seen all season, and it's not shocking, as we have yet to have a game where both teams broke 90 points.
Magic vs Cavaliers trend
The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the first half game total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 48% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Cavaliers.
Magic vs Cavaliers game info
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports Florida |
Magic vs Cavaliers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
