Game 1 of the Connecticut Sun’s semifinal series against the Chicago Sky was a grind-out, bruising war of attrition, with both teams shooting under 40% from the field. Despite an all-time level performance from Candace Parker, Connecticut ultimately took down the defending champs and secured the 1-0 series lead.
Game 2 of Sun vs. Sky is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, August 31. We have your free WNBA picks and predictions below.
Sun vs Sky Game 2 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Chicago Sky opened as high as -5.5 favorites, and are getting -4.5 points at most books at the time of this writing. The total has been set at 163.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Sun vs Sky Game 2 predictions
Predictions made on 8/30/2022 at 11:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sun vs Sky info
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
• Date: Wednesday, August 31, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Sun vs Sky series odds
Sun: -180
Sky : +160
Sun vs Sky betting preview
Key injuries
Sun: None.
Sky: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Sky's last 6 overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Sky.
Sun vs Sky Game 2 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Game 1 of this highly anticipated series rematch between the Connecticut Sun and the Chicago Sky wasn’t exactly pretty, with a 68-63 final score that was indicative of the lack of offensive flow. But if you looked a little closer, there was beauty in the crispness of the defensive rotations by both teams. In the Sun’s case, the force they put into defending screens was impressive.
The Sun eked out a much-needed win against a Sky team that had been getting the better of them recently (Connecticut had been just 1-7 in their previous eight contests) and now Chicago has to dig deep to rally or risk going down 0-2 when the games shift to Mohegan Sun.
So how did Connecticut do it? Well, it played out largely as expected from the Sun's point of view. They dominated the paint and the boards and used their superior size to outmuscle the Sky. The ball still struggled to find Jonquel Jones at points, but Connecticut found enough offense between DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones, and Alyssa Thomas to tread water while shutting off the taps of Chicago’s offense. Nobody on the Sky got into any kind of rhythm outside of Candace Parker.
But what a rhythm she found. Parker totaled 19 points, 18 rebounds, five assists, six blocks, and four steals. That is one steal short of a 5x5 in a 40-minute game — a playoff game against elite competition, no less. For comparison, in the NBA’s 48-minute game, there are just 22 recorded 5x5s in recorded history. Parker was a menace defending the paint, repeatedly blew up Connecticut’s actions when defending the perimeter, and got her own on offense in isolation over and over again. She might have eclipsed 10 assists as well if her teammates hadn’t blown shot after shot she served up for them on a silver platter.
It was a championship-caliber performance, one Chicago’s other players might deeply regret wasting.
A big part of the Sun’s success came from the physical nature of the game. Outside of a few touch fouls in the final minutes of the fourth quarter, this was as much contact as you will see go uncalled in a playoff game. The Sky are the more finesse-based team, and the Sun getting free reign to work them over physically tilted the balance decisively in Connecticut’s favor. If that kind of officiating were to hold for Game 2, I’d think the Sun to go up 2-0.
I don’t expect it to, though. Referees recalibrate from game to game in the playoffs, and likely got an earful of complaints following Game 1. I’d expect a more hands-on officiating crew in Game 2, which taken with the rubber-band effect — and what I still believe are the Sky’s matchup advantages — makes them my pick again in Game 2.
Prediction: Sky -4.5 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
The Sky shot just 35.3% from the floor in Game 1, and the Sun shot only modestly better at 37.3%. Needless to say, the Under was all about guaranteed by halftime. In the end, the total went Under by 33.5 points, and yet the line for Game 2 has only seen a one-point drop.
I don’t expect the same offensive struggles for the Sky on Wednesday, as I predict the officiating will give their guards more room to breathe. But I do think the way the Sky defended was more or less sustainable. As long as one of these teams is able to replicate what they did in Game 1 on defense, the Under seems highly likely.
And the Sky have been consistently generating Unders. The Under is 5-1 in the Sky's last six games, including two games against the New York Liberty where the Sky scored 90 and 100 points, respectively. Chicago is going to play with desperation on both ends, and Connecticut will be scraping for points.
Prediction: Under 163.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
The Sun made use of a gigantic lineup in Game 1 that rarely saw action during the regular season. They pounded the Sky backcourt on mismatches, and that physicality probably had something to do with Courtney Vandersloot's puzzling off-night on offense.
They showed Vandersloot a lot of early pressure on pick and rolls, hard hedging or even outright blitzing her at times. I’d both expect the Sky to adjust so she sees fewer Sun defenders and for her to better deal with the pressure she’s shown in Game 2.
That jumbo Sun lineup did manage to stymie the Sky offense but, in turn, it wasn’t that effective of a scoring unit itself. A more tightly-called game could see that lineup in trouble with Chicago’s perimeter players getting quality looks from outside. The Sky took 30 threes in Game 1 but hit just 26.7% of them. A rebound shooting performance should see the Sky cover in Game 2.
Pick: Sky -4.5 (-110 at Betway)
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