Sun vs Sky Game 1 Picks and Predictions: Chicago Takes Flight in Game 1

Between a battle-tested roster, a plethora of offensive talent, and the continued dominance of their Round 2 foe, all signs point to a straightforward win and cover for the Chicago Sky in Game 1. Read more in our WNBA betting picks and predictions below.

Aug 28, 2022 • 10:34 ET • 4 min read
Candace Parker Chicago Sky WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There are few better things in sports than a good old-fashioned grudge match, and the basketball gods have delivered us one starting Sunday.

The Chicago Sky took down the Connecticut Sun en route to the 2021 WNBA championship just one season ago, and now the two teams will face off once more for the right to head to the Finals.

So has Connecticut done enough this season to prove they were the better team all along? Or will the Sky again dispatch the Sun in an unceremonious fashion?

Find out who we’re backing in Game 1 of our WNBA picks and predictions for Sun vs. Sky below.

Sun vs Sky Game 1 odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Chicago Sky opened as -2.5 favorites, and are now getting as many as -4.5 points at some books. The total has seen a slight drop from 166.5 to 165.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.

Sun vs Sky Game 1 predictions

Predictions made on 8/28/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Sun vs Sky info

Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
Date: Sunday, August 28, 2022
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2

Sun vs Sky series odds

Sun: +125
Sky: -150

Sun vs Sky betting preview

Key injuries

Sun: No key injuries to report.
Sky: Kahleah Copper G (Probable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Connecticut is 1-5 against the spread in the last six meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Sky.

Sun vs Sky Game 1 picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Chicago won last year's semi-final matchup against Connecticut 3-1, upsetting the No. 1-seeded Sun, who had also finished the regular season on a 13-0 winning streak. This time, the Sky hold homecourt advantage as well as a psychological one.

Chicago swept the season series 4-0, but these were mostly close games, including one that went to overtime. While I don’t think that 4-0 result is necessarily predictive of a quick series for the Sky, it’s notable that Chicago has been the best clutch team in the WNBA this season. They have a staggering +28 net rating in the clutch over the course of 23 clutch games, as well as the best offense and second-best defense in the clutch.

Some people think championship pedigree isn’t real, but the Sky are the definition of it. They’re battle-tested and never waver from their team-first playstyle that emphasizes flow and ball movement.

The Sun are another story. While they had the third-best clutch net rating in the regular season, they finished with an uninspiring 9-7 record. They tend to get tight and devolve into low-efficiency offense when things aren’t going their way, and the Sky have plenty of ways to muck things up for them.

One player on Connecticut I don't worry about in that regard is DeWanna Bonner. She’s a gamer and a playoff killer that has been there, done that. She won’t rattle on the big stage even if some of her teammates might.

A lot of this series is going to come down to guard play, which I believe clearly favors the Sky. For Chicago, Courtney Vandersloot is the best floor general in the series, and Allie Quigley is the best shooter. For the Sun, Courtney Williams is a fearsome on-ball defender and mid-range jump shooter and Natisha Hiedeman is an outsider sniper. But Williams and Hiedeman are both score-first guards who don’t do much that will change the way the Sky want to play. 

Hiedeman is an outstanding shooter, but she can’t do much with the ball in her hands or on the move. Williams has a silky mid-range game but neither can consistently hit from outside and are both below-average playmakers.

Those are limitations that Chicago will pressure early and often in Game 1. If the Sun’s guards can’t consistently create advantages and get the ball to Jonquel Jones and Alyssa Thomas in good positions, it’s going to be tough sledding for the Sun.

As the Sky have proven over and over, they raise their game as the stakes rise around them. The Sun by contrast have had the requisite talent to get it done before and come up short.

While they’ve shown great regular season consistency, they’ve been shakier in the playoffs. I like the Sky to win and cover in Game 1.

Prediction: Sky -3.5 (-118 at 888sport)

Over/Under analysis

The Sun are going to badly miss Jasmine Thomas in this series. Thomas is the crafty pick-and-roll operator they desperately need, and without her, I believe the Connecticut offense could run cold in Game 1. 

While Courtney Williams is a good player and a quality shot-creator from inside the arc, she’s wildly inconsistent outside of it. In previous matchups, Chicago has been comfortable sagging off her to pack the paint on drives. It would take a lot of Williams threes to make the Sky switch up that strategy, so I’m expecting a crowded paint for the Connecticut offense.

That’s going to lower the total because the Sun don’t shoot many threes. They rely on free throws, paint touches, and defense-to-offense transition possessions to get their offense going.

When a team takes care of the ball well, the Sun can get bogged down in the half-court. The Sky had the lowest turnover percentage of any team in Round 1 of the playoffs (11.8%).

Chicago’s defense is also just damn good, which is a big reason that the Under is 4-1 in Sky's last five games. I like the Under.

Prediction: Under 166.5 (-110 at Betway)

Best bet

The Sun have been spread killers this year, but the regular season and the semi-finals of the playoffs are entirely different beasts.

Chicago seemingly has their number, having bested them in the playoffs last season and swept the season series this year 4-0. The spread history is just as unfavorable to the Sun, who are just 1-5 against the spread in the last six games against the Sky.

Besides precedent, something that gives me confidence in the Sky in this game (and the series) is that when they’re on offense the ball finds the right player more often than not. The same can’t be said for Connecticut.

While Jonquel Jones might be the most versatile scorer in the series, I’m less sanguine that the Sun will find and feed her than I am in Chicago finding the hot hand with their offense. Partly, that’s due to the Sky having stronger guard play as mentioned above, but it’s also because the Chicago frontline of Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman are two of the best facilitating forwards in the game.

It’s an embarrassment of riches to be able to initiate the offense from so many different spots and positions on the floor, and it’s a strength that Connecticut cannot match.

Pick: Sky -3.5 (-118 at 888sport)

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