The second part of the WNBA semifinal doubleheader Wednesday, August 31 sees the No.1 Las Vegas Aces trying to rally against the Seattle Storm.
The Aces have racked up all kinds of hardware in recent days, including Coach of the Year, Most Improved Player, and Defensive Player of the Year, but their season will be on life support if they lose a second game in a row on their homecourt to begin this series.
Our WNBA picks and predictions for Storm vs. Aces Game 2 think that Seattle has found a winning formula early in this second-round series.
Storm vs Aces Game 2 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Aces are between -5.5 and -6 point favorites at most books. The total has seen a dip from 170.5 to 169.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Storm vs Aces Game 2 predictions
Predictions made on 7/31/2022 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Storm vs Aces info
• Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Wednesday, August 31, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Storm vs Aces series odds
Storm: +100
Aces : -120
Storm vs Aces betting preview
Key injuries
Storm: Gabby Williams F (Out).
Aces: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 7-1 in Storm’s last eight overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Aces.
Storm vs Aces Game 2 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Storm jumped out to an early lead in Game 1 and didn’t relinquish it until the six-minute mark of the fourth quarter. After briefly falling down by three, Seattle rallied to ultimately win 76-73. It was an impressive win for the Storm, but the process was even better.
The disparity in shot quality between the two teams was massive. The Storm were consistently generating high-quality looks off of ball movement, even if the threes didn’t always fall. In large part that was because Sue Bird played a masterful game, totaling 12 assists and zero turnovers.
They were the kind of value-added assists that are difference makers in a game like this. She repeatedly threaded the needle, catching Las Vegas sleeping in transition with spot-on hit-ahead passes, feeding Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd right at the basket.
Bird ramped up her minutes from 26.4 in the regular season to 37 in Game 1 and the sometimes-sluggish Storm offense has taken a major jump as a result. Stewart was also marvelous. As noted on the broadcast, Stewie has scored 20 or more points in 16 of her last 19 playoff games. Some of the shots she was hitting in Game 1 were absolutely stunning.
While it’s unfortunate that Gabby Williams (who was just named Second Team All-Defense) remains out for Game 2 in concussion protocol, her replacement in the starting lineup, Stephanie Talbot, did a fine job in her stead. Talbot held up much better on defense than expected, adding a steal and a block that helped cement Seattle’s early lead. Foul trouble (and at least one highly questionable call) kept her from being a consistent force in Game 1, but she seems primed to have a big impact in Game 2.
What the Storm lose in defensive versatility with Williams out, they do gain in the gravity of Talbot’s spacing. She’s shot north of 40% from three during her two seasons in Seattle. Tina Charles is the primary beneficiary of that spacing, and Talbot/Charles pick and rolls more often than not left a helpless Aces guard to defend Charles in the post on a mismatch. That either resulted in a bucket for Charles, or an open three for the Storm as Las Vegas was forced to send help.
Newly-minted Defensive Player of the Year A’ja Wilson, by contrast, was operating in a phonebooth all night. Every time she caught the ball in the paint she saw two Storm bodies, as Seattle sagged off one of the Aces' weaker shooters to crowd her. It was effective, limiting the normally prolific Wilson to a mere eight points on 3-10 shooting.
The Aces will respond. A’ja won’t have another eight-point showing. But the Storm demonstrated much better offensive process than Las Vegas in Game 1, even if the final score was a close-run thing. I like Seattle to cover.
Prediction: Storm +6.0 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
These were the two most accurate 3-point shooting teams in the regular season, and both were Top 4 in overall volume. In Game 1, they shot a combined 11-45 from three, or 24.4%. That’s about 12% lower than their collective regular-season average. Even accounting for the increased defensive intensity of this matchup, one should expect that number to significantly rise over the course of this series.
The Storm, in particular, had a number of inexplicable shooting droughts that were not the result of Vegas pressure. If they generate the same level of looks in Game 2, I’d expect their total to jump significantly.
The Aces have even more room to grow. They were out of sorts for much of the game, and while they have strong isolation players, they’ll need to work harder to generate more easy baskets in the flow of the offense. Too often, Seattle shut down a single action and the Aces rewarded them with an ill-advised attempt at hero ball.
No doubt Becky Hammon will have shown the film on this, and I expect a more team-oriented offense to see the Aces pick up their scoring in Game 2.
Both teams have been trending Over since the tail end of the regular season as well. The Over has cashed in seven of the Storm’s last eight games, while the Over is 7-3 in the Aces’ last 10 against teams with a winning record.
Prediction: Over 169.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
It feels odd to consider a former No.1 overall pick an X-factor, but after the regular season that Jewell Loyd had, it wasn’t entirely clear what the Storm could expect from her in the playoffs. Loyd struggled from the field for most of the year prior to a late-season surge. But in the past six games, she’s averaging 29.4 points and has shot 25-for-50 from 3-point range.
Loyd has found her rhythm, and it gives the Storm a one-two punch as good as anything the Aces can throw at them. That’s huge, because as good as Bird is as a facilitator, she’s a marginal scoring threat these days. If only Breanna Stewart has it going offensively, the Storm can find themselves playing from behind quickly against a team as talented as Vegas.
It was Loyd who ultimately iced the game by getting the switch on Wilson and hitting a step back right in her eye. As long as this version of Jewell is playing, the Storm can beat anybody.
That’s not to say that this is a lock, but Game 2 feels like a virtual toss-up given how many avenues both teams have to improve on their Game 1 performances. At +200 there’s too much value here to ignore for Seattle.
Pick: Storm Moneyline (+200 at Betway)
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