It’s a Western Conference showdown, as the Seattle Storm take on the No. 1-seeded Las Vegas Aces in Game 1 of the second round. The Storm and Aces both dispatched their opponents swiftly in Round 1, but this has all the makings of a five-game series.
A playoff game doesn’t get more star power than this with no fewer than seven previous No. 1 overall picks as well as the likely first and second-place finishers for the 2022 MVP trophy in A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart.
These are two of the most star-laden teams in the “W”, and yet our WNBA picks and predictions for Game 1 hinges on the absence of one of Seattle’s best role player defenders.
Storm vs Aces Game 1 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Las Vegas Aces opened as -5 point favorites, and most books have seen a small bump to -5.5. The total opened at 168.5 and has risen to 170.5 at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Storm vs Aces Game 1 predictions
Predictions made on 8/28/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Storm vs Aces info
• Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Sunday, August 28, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Storm vs Aces series odds
Storm: +190
Aces: -235
Storm vs Aces betting preview
Key injuries
Storm: Gabby Williams F (Out).
Aces: Dearica Hamby F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in Seattle's last seven games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Aces.
Storm vs Aces Game 1 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm enter Game 1 of the second round both missing key defensive cogs in their rotation. The Aces are without Dearica Hamby, whose 2022 playoff future remains murky after suffering a knee contusion near the end of the regular season.
Luckily for the already top-heavy Aces, both Kiah Stokes and Illiana Rupert will be available and ready to go on Sunday. That’s no replacement for Hamby, but the Aces are painfully thin as is, and even losing one more rotation player would leave their rotation dangerously vulnerable.
But it’s the Storm whose injuries might prove fatal to their title hopes, as Gabby Williams remains in concussion protocol after a collision she suffered in the Storm’s close-out game against the Washington Mystics.
It can’t be overstated how much the Storm will miss Gabby Williams in this matchup. If she remains in concussion protocol beyond Game 1, it might very well swing the series to the Aces. While Breanna Stewart is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Williams is their most versatile defensive forward, capable of legitimately guarding one through four. She’s a strong screen navigator, she’s tough, and she’s disciplined in her approach. Losing her leaves the Storm short on players that can credibly defend Las Vegas’ terrifying perimeter trio of Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Kelsey Plum.
With Williams out, the Storm will likely turn to Briann January to help guard the perimeter. January is a good defender but is no substitute for Williams in terms of size and length, and a lineup with Briann January, Sue Bird, and Jewell Loyd is going to get bullied at times by the Aces.
Speaking of Bird: who she guards and how the rest of the Storm cover for her will be a major pivot point for the series. Bird frequently guarded Chelsea Gray during regular season matchups, with mixed-to-poor results.
Sue is still an A-tier team defender, particularly when the Storm can shrink the court, but on ball, she’s lost more than a step. Gray is explosive, has a deep bag of dribble moves, and flashes some of the best passing in the league. Over the course of a game, Gray will get the better of her.
At the same time, Bird guarding Kelsey Plum is equally fraught. Bird no longer has the footspeed to hang with Plum on the perimeter, and when healthy Gabby Williams seemed the most likely Plum matchup. That would allow Bird to stick on Jackie Young, who takes the longest to load up her (still deadly) 3-point shot. Bird might still guard Young, but the Storm get awfully small when looking to replace Williams’ impact on defense.
In a game featuring so much star talent, it seems almost odd to fixate so strongly on the absence of one role player, but it’s a testament to how even these teams are, and how valuable Gabby Williams’ defensive versatility is, that I believe her absence leads to an Aces cover in Game 1.
Prediction: Aces -5.5 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
Las Vegas had the No.1 overall offense in the regular season (109.6, nearly four points clear of second place Connecticut Sun) and to nobody's great surprise has been the highest scoring team through two playoff games. As gone over above, Gabby Williams's absence should see Las Vegas having much more success both on the perimeter and in the paint than they might have otherwise.
Seattle will have ways to put pressure on the Vegas defense as well. While they’re a defense-first team, the midseason addition of Tina Charles gives them legitimate offensive flexibility, capable of creating a shot from the perimeter, midrange, or at the rim in transition or in the halfcourt.
With Hamby out, Seattle’s best bet will be to attack with whichever forward is not guarded by A’ja Wilson or to have Charles set screens for Breanna Stewart to get her a favorable matchup. The Aces are deep on talented guards, but outside of Wilson, their backline can be exposed.
The Storm were not a strong overall offense this season, but the integration of Tina Charles has seen them make great late-season strides that the books have not totally accounted for yet. That’s why the Over is both 7-0 in the Storm's last seven as well as 6-1 in their seven road games.
This team is yet to reach its full offensive potential, making the Over the pick here.
Prediction: Over 170.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
Both the Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces rightly believe they could walk away WNBA champions at the end of these playoffs, but one is destined to be cut down before even making the Finals. Until Gabby Williams returns from concussion protocol, I believe it’s advantage Aces.
Recent history also points towards an Aces cover. While Las Vegas has been inconsistent overall, they’ve been strong against Seattle. The Aces won the season series 3-1, and the Storm are just 1-5 against the spread over the last six games these two teams have played.
I believe the Aces will take a 1-0 series lead and cover in Game 1.
Pick: Aces -5.5 (-110 at Betway)
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