The Wednesday night playoff opener between the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury was surprisingly competitive, with the depleted Phoenix battling in a 79-64 victory for the Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Phoenix has dealt with several devastating circumstances this year, the latest being a ruptured Achilles to starting guard Shey Peddy. With the Mercury now forced to start their fourth point guard this season, find out why this series likely won't be going to Phoenix in our Aces vs. Mercury WNBA picks and predictions for Saturday, August 20.
Mercury vs Aces Game 2 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Lines opened hovering between -15 and -15.5 in favor of the Aces. With the news of Shey Peddy's injury, the spread has increased to -17 across most sportsbooks. The total opened between 166.5 and 167.5 and has decreased on several sportsbooks to anywhere between 164.5 and 165.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Mercury vs Aces Game 2 predictions
Predictions made on 8/20/2022 at 2:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mercury vs Aces info
• Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Mercury vs Aces series odds
Mercury: +2,000
Aces: -15,000
Key injuries
Mercury: Shey Peddy G (Out), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out), Diana Taurasi G (Out), Brittney Griner C (Out), Kia Nurse G (Out).
Aces: Dearica Hamby F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Mercury are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Aces.
Mercury vs Aces Game 2 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
On the one hand, Phoenix may oddly be feeling good about themselves. They didn't score much at all, only mustering 63 points, but they did contain the league's most potent offensive attack to only 79 points. That's 11.4 less than their season average. The downside is that you still lost the game by 16 points, and it's going to be near impossible to keep the Aces down on the scoreboard for two games in a row.
The Aces are coming on Saturday, and the depleted Mercury should be very concerned. Here's something to consider: In the regular season, the Aces only scored under 80 points six times. In the matchups following those six games, they averaged 91.8 points.
The series opener wasn't a pretty one for the Aces, as they had to grind their way to a victory. If the Aces give out game balls after every win, they should have handed it to Chelsea Gray, who played exceptionally down the stretch when it looked like Las Vegas could be on upset alert. She ultimately scored 17 points, her highest output against Phoenix all season.
Phoenix has not competed with the best teams this year, and Saturday's tilt feels like the roof can completely collapse on their season. Las Vegas owned the Mercury during the regular season, going 3-0 and averaging 97.3 points per contest — and that was with the majority of Phoenix's core intact. During the regular season, Phoenix played the three best teams (Chicago, Connecticut, and Las Vegas) nine times and lost each game by an average margin of 13.8 points.
The Mercury covered by a half point in the opener. Before that, they failed to cover in their last six games. With the Aces still managing to win by 16 points after playing far from perfect, I'm fully expecting them to play better and run the Mercury right into their off-season.
Prediction: Aces -16.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
Simply put, the first game in this series was far from the norm for the Aces and, to a degree, the Mercury, who, even with the injuries, can do a little better than the 63 points they scored. In the seven games that star guard Skylar Diggins-Smith missed this season, the Mercury averaged 76.1 points, which isn't great, but considering the Aces' scoring ceiling, that could be enough to help the case for the Over tonight.
In the four games between these two teams this season, the Aces have now averaged 92.7 points per game against the Mercury. After three quarters of mostly sleepwalking on Wednesday, Las Vegas woke up in a big way in the fourth, scoring 28 points to close the game. There's no doubt while watching the final period that the Aces figured some things out on the offensive side of the ball, making 61.5% of their shots in the quarter, with Gray scoring a game-high nine points in the period.
For the year, the Mercury and Aces have been average-at-best on the defensive end, with both teams finishing seventh and eighth in defensive rating. The lack of high-level defense ultimately doesn't fare well for the Mercury, who are asked to contain the league's highest-scoring offense, ranking Top 3 in field goal and three-point efficiency.
They will also be asked to slow down Kelsey Plum, who may very well be the most lethal three-point shooter in the entire league, having scored over 20 points in five out of her last six playoff games. In the series opener, she scored 20 points, but only made two of her seven attempts. For the year, she's shooting 42 percent from behind the arc, and I would bet on her finding her long-range shot again in tonight's game.
Prediction: Over 164.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Best bet
It's been that type of year for Phoenix, who have been dealt a brutal hand. First Brittney Griners' detainment in Russia, then Tina Charles' leaving the team, and now, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, and Shey Peddy have all been sidelined over the last several weeks, significantly stunting the team's outcome for the year.
Phoenix fought hard for much of the first game, trailing only by five points entering the fourth quarter. Yet, they still found themselves safely in the losers' column when the clock hit "00:00." That must be demoralizing, particularly when you add Peddy to their mounting inactive list.
The injury to Peddy feels like a dagger on so many levels, as she started 24 games in the regular season, averaging 9.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while playing great defense. She also made an impact on Wednesday, scoring eight points and five assists in almost 26 minutes.
Phoenix is in a bad position. It wouldn't be surprising if the Mercury are unable to keep up with Las Vegas' firepower from the very beginning of this game. Think about it. You are asking a team who has lost their third starting point guard this season — and all of its three leading scorers — to compete with a team that easily led the league in points per game.
Count on a motivated Aces side to not leave any room for doubt.
Pick: Aces -16.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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