It’s been a bit of a disappointing season for the Indiana Fever and the Phoenix Mercury, who will battle on the hardwood tonight at Footprint Center. The Mercury, winners of six of their last 10 games, will look to mount a surge heading into the latter portion of the schedule. Indiana, winners of only two of their previous 10 games, appears to be heading nowhere fast.
Tonight is the third matchup between the two teams, with Phoenix comfortably winning both matchups by double digits. Our WNBA betting picks look at whether or not tonight’s matchup be more of the same.
Fever vs Mercury odds
Phoenix opened at -7.5 and that spread has ticked down slightly to -7.0 at most books by the time of this writing, though it can be found as low as -6.5. The total opened at 165.5 and has slowly moved a full point to 166.5 since last night.
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Fever vs Mercury predictions
Predictions made on 6/29/2022 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Fever vs Mercury info
• Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Wednesday, June 29, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBA TV, Bally Sports AZ
Fever vs Mercury betting preview
Key injuries
Fever: None.
Mercury: Brittney Griner C (Out), Kia Nurse G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Under is 6-0 in the Fever's last six road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Mercury.
Fever vs Mercury picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
While Phoenix doesn't do anything at an elite level, they will surely take advantage of Indiana, which continues to do many things at a league-worst level. Let's start with their offense — with a rating of 96.8, they rank second to last in the WNBA. Indiana has a field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and assists per game percentage that all rank in the Bottom 3 in the league. The Fever don't have the talent or offensive chemistry to execute on a nightly basis.
The defensive side of the ball isn't much better. The defensive rating ranks last in the league at 108, and their steals per game (6.9) isn't much better, as it ranks eighth-best.
Phoenix coasted to a victory in its last matchup with Indiana, and you can expect much of the same to occur again. The Mercury were in complete control throughout, led by Diana Taurasi's 27 points, five rebounds, and two assists. Skylar Diggins-Smith, who averages nearly 19 points per game on the season, pitched in 17 to secure the victory. Phoenix boasts a Top-5 offensive rating (105.8) and will put a ton of pressure on Indiana's fragile defense with a Top-4 true shooting percentage (55.1).
For the Fever to have a shot, they must dominate the glass. Rebounding hasn't been a strong suit for the Mercury all year, with their second-leading rebounder only averaging 3.8 per game. Phoenix is last in rebounds (31) and offensive rebounds (5.8) per game.
The Fever rank first in offensive rebounds with 10.6 per game and will need to dominate the boards should they wish to keep this one close. I would bank on a spirited effort from Indiana in this one but Phoenix has too much offensive talent for this to even get close.
Prediction: Mercury -6.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
Considering both teams' offensive and defensive metrics, it's no surprise they each have struggled at different points this year. Yet, both teams have managed to net a positive Over/Under (O/U) record.
The Fever's lack of scoring power hurt them in their previous two meetings with the Mercury, totaling 139 points across both games. Each of those previous encounters led to the Under. In the Fever's last 10 games, they've netted a 3-7 O/U. Each of those Overs came when they scored over 80 points.
Phoenix's defense is less than stellar, as evidenced by its lackluster defensive rating (104.7). Indiana scored a modest 71 points on Monday, but the Mercury had their best defensive performance. Will that hold in the rematch?
Surely, Tina Charles' departure will catch up to them at some point. The 2010 first pick averaged over 17 points and seven rebounds per game.
The two previous games in this matchup have resulted in 154 and 173 totals, splitting the O/U. Take the Under in this one.
Prediction: Under 165.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Yes, both teams have struggled this season, but there are different degrees of struggling. While Phoenix is trying to re-identify itself and make a push for the playoffs, Indiana is headed nowhere fast. The Fever are the first team in the WNBA this season to reach 15 losses and are in strong pursuit of finishing the season with the worst record.
Anything can happen in a game, and, oddly enough, the Fever have managed to defeat the 13-5 Chicago Sky twice this season. However, those victories are few and far between.
Phoenix is continuing to find its footing as it deals with star center Brittney Griner not being with the team and several nagging injuries hampering the team throughout the season. Look for the Mercury to continue their solid play of late. Phoenix will convincingly defeat Indiana yet again.
Pick: Mercury -6.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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