Aces vs Storm Picks and Predictions: Las Vegas Weathers the Storm, Tina Charles

Tina Charles' arrival in Seattle has tilted odds slightly in the Storm's favor tonight against the visiting Aces but with uncertainties abound regarding playing time and deployment, Las Vegas is the right play as a rare underdog in our betting picks.

Jun 29, 2022 • 12:17 ET • 4 min read
Kelsey Plum Las Vegas Aces WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Western powers collide when the Las Vegas Aces visit the Seattle Storm and newest addition Tina Charles inside Climate Pledge Arena on Wednesday.

Seattle signed Charles following her “divorce” from Phoenix last week, giving the Storm a massive piece to the puzzle inside with the 6-foot-4 center averaging more than 17 points and seven rebounds on the season. 

Las Vegas plays the second of four straight road games after snapping a two-game losing blip with a slim win in Los Angeles on Monday. The Aces once again came up short for bettors and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight contests.

Check out our free WNBA picks and predictions for Aces at Storm on June 29.

Aces vs Storm odds

Seattle opened between -2 and -2.5 with Charles available to play tonight. That spread slipped all the way through pick’em to Las Vegas -1.5 before buyback on the home side brought the spread back to Storm +1.5. The total hit the board at 165 points and climbed as high as 166.5 at some shops before a market consensus of 165.5.

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Aces vs Storm predictions

Predictions made on 6/29/2022 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Best WNBA bonuses

If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now

B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now

*Eligible USA locations only

Aces vs Storm info

Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
Date: Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: Amazon Prime Video

Aces vs Storm betting preview

Key injuries

Aces: Chelsea Gray G (Out)
Storm: Mercedes Russell C (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Storm are 8-17 against the spread in their last 25 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Storm.

Aces vs Storm picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Tina Charles’ need to chase championships was behind her departure from Phoenix to Seattle and now forms one of the best frontcourts in the WNBA, lining up the 2012 MVP alongside 2018 Most Valuable Player Breanna Stewart and giving the Storm some added scoring depth.

That will come in handy against a very dangerous Las Vegas team, that boasts five players putting up 12.5 points or more on the season. The Aces will, however, be down guard Chelsea Gray (12.5 ppg) as she did not travel with the team to Seattle due to personal reasons.

Vegas got right with a win in Los Angeles last time out, snuffing out a two-game slide and an extended string of games this month in which the defense paled in comparison to the Aces’ efforts to start the season.

While the win over the Sparks wasn’t pretty, Becky Hammon did get her defense to show up. Las Vegas checked L.A. to only 73 points on 38% shooting and tough defending has been the Aces’ calling card on the road, where they rank tops in the league in advanced defensive rating (94.4).

Should the line close here, this game will mark the first time Las Vegas has been a point-spread underdog all season and is the first time the Aces were catching points in a regular-season outing since August 24 of last year. 

Charles’ arrival is massive for the Storm’s long-term success, but we don’t know how much she’ll play tonight or how she’ll fit into an offense that has been terribly inconsistent on the season. 

Prediction: Aces +1.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

The Storm have a methodical approach on offense, running out a pace rating of 95.47 (third-slowest in the WNBA) and have one of the better flowing offenses in the league, picking up assists on nearly 76% of their made field goals. How Charles fits into that playbook remains to be seen.

Testing that chemistry against the Aces could be tough, as Las Vegas limits home teams to only 19.1 assists per outing and doesn’t give up much in the way of extra-chance buckets (8.4 ppg), with sound defensive rebounding (76.2 defensive rebound rate — No. 1 in the league).

As explosive as the Aces’ starting five can be, Hammon hangs her hat on defense when the going gets tough. Las Vegas gives up only 79.3 points per game on the road while limiting host teams to a WNBA-low 40.2% shooting in their own gym.

These teams last clashed way back on May 8, with Vegas winning 85-74 at home and the final score staying well Under the closing total of 176. Tonight’s total ticked up as high as 166.5 before coming back down to 165.5 — the biggest total Seattle has faced since that first meeting with the Aces. 

Las Vegas will once again lean into its defense and is missing starting guard Chelsea Gray, which tests its offensive depth. It’s played Under in seven of its last 10 road games. 

Prediction: Under 166 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

This line has gone on a bit of a ride. Seattle opened as big as -2.5 and the spread slimmed to pick’em this morning, eventually jumping the fence to Vegas -1.5 before buyback on the Storm pushed the line back over to Seattle -1.5.

Charles is a great addition for Seattle but there are some unknowns about how this team will play tonight. The Storm have been far from consistent over their recent efforts, coming off a bad loss to Los Angeles at home last Saturday following a successful seven-game run in which they went 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS.

Outside of missing Gray, we know what we’re getting from Vegas. The Aces protect the perimeter well, giving up a league-low 31.7% success rate from distance, and should keep close tabs on the Storm, who thrive from beyond the arc for a league-high 9.4 makes from deep.

We can’t pass the Aces in a rare dog spot and with this line teetering on pick’em, we’ll grab Las Vegas outright.

Pick: Aces moneyline (+100 at bet365)

WNBA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s WNBA Aces vs. Storm predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $61.67 on a $10 bet?

Use our WNBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo