Aces vs Storm Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Vegas Deals Seattle a Losing Hand

The Aces mounted a monumental comeback to tie Game 3 vs. the Storm before demolishing Seattle in overtime. Our betting picks like Vegas to end the series tonight, punching its ticket to the finals in the process.

Sep 6, 2022 • 08:49 ET • 4 min read
A'ja Wilson Chelsea Gray Las Vegas Aces WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Game 3 between the Las Vegas Aces and the Seattle Storm was a true instant classic, and one of the better basketball games in recent memory. Per Elias Sports Bureau, Game 3 of Aces vs. Storm was the first WNBA playoff game in history to feature three game-tying or go-ahead baskets with three seconds or less to go in the game. 

The entire series seemed to hang on a razor's edge as these two teams traded impossible bucket after impossible bucket. In the end, the Aces won in overtime and Storm players were left utterly dejected.

Game 4 is set to tip off Tuesday, September 6, with Las Vegas one win away from stamping their ticket to the Finals, and a chance at their first title in franchise history. Our WNBA picks and predictions believe the Aces' unstoppable small-ball lineup will help them do just that.

Aces vs Storm Game 4 best odds

Aces vs Storm Game 4 picks and predictions

This series was all about defense... until Game 3 reared its ugly head. The Aces offense has arrived and despite getting All-Defensive player Gabby Williams back and outstanding overall play by Ezi Magbegor, Seattle struggled to put keep it at bay. This largely came down to three things: A’ja Wilson’s dominant interior game, the transcendent isolation scoring of Chelsea Gray, and the return of the small-ball lineup featuring Riquna Williams.

Becky Hammon wasn’t messing around in Game 3. Realizing it was now or never, she played Wilson for the full 45 minutes. Wilson responded with a playoff career-high 34 points on a ridiculous 77% true shooting. Wilson also did a fine job on the defensive end, frequently matched up with Breanna Stewart who had an uncharacteristic off night, scoring just 20 points on 19 shots. A’ja seemed to score every time the Aces needed a bucket through regulation, and it was her play that allowed Las Vegas to keep in contact before ultimately winning in overtime.

Gray was also absurd. While her overall game was fantastic — including 29 points on 5 of 9 from three and 12 assists — it was her isolation scoring that truly shone, much of it as the Aces pulled away in OT. Nine of her 12 baskets were unassisted, and the spread Seattle defense could not contain her one on one.

But the success of both Wilson and Gray was tied to the tactical success of Hammon’s decision to return to the small-ball lineup from Game 2.  After outscoring the Storm by 16 points in 16 minutes in the prior game, the small lineup featuring Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Gray, Jackie Young, and Williams outscored the Storm by 10 points in 9.6 minutes in Game 3. 

Despite an infusion of defensive talent on the wing, the Storm don’t appear to have an answer for this lineup. It gives A’ja free reign in the paint and Gray the ability to isolate on the perimeter with impunity. 

With no proof through two games that Seattle can stop the Aces' small-ball, I believe Las Vegas will end the series on Tuesday.

My best bet: Aces moneyline (-110 at Betway)

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Aces vs Storm series odds

Aces: -600.
Storm : +450.

Aces vs Storm betting preview

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Spread analysis Over/Under analysis Game info Injuries Trend to know

Spread analysis

For a spread this small, it’s the little things that take on magnified importance. Something that isn’t analyzed enough in basketball is the impact of in-game coaching adjustments or the effect after timeout plays can have on a game. In many ways, Game 3 was decided by ATOs, with Hammon pushing the right buttons again and again down the stretch to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  Per positive residual, the Storm had a 96% win probability with 11 seconds left to go in regulation.

For a game that Seattle had in the bag until the Aces shockingly pushed it to overtime, it must be dispiriting for Seattle to have then gotten absolutely rocked in OT. The Storm had a 4-point lead with 11 seconds left and ended up losing by 12.

That overtime margin came as Storm head coach Noelle Quinn went away from the lineup that had all but won Seattle the game in regulation, benching  Magbegor and Stephanie Talbot in favor of Tina Charles and Gabby Williams. 

With a series of devastating ATOs and the small-ball lineup adjustment, Hammon has proven that the Aces have a coaching advantage in this series, that alone would be enough to think about the Aces at +1.5.

Over/Under analysis

After a pair of subdued offensive outings in the previous two games, the offenses have fully unlocked in this series. The key factor is the emergence of the Aces' small-ball unit, as noted above, and the Storm’s inability to slow it down even with Gabby Williams back in the fold. Seattle instead seems to be opting to try and outscore the Aces, a daunting task, and one that points toward the Over in this contest.

To be fair, scoring has come easier to the Storm since integrating Talbot. Talbot’s shooting has also been huge for the Storm offense. She added 12 points on 3 of 4 from deep in Game 3 and she provides a level of spacing for the Storm that their more defensive-oriented units lack. That spacing in turn helps Tina Charles isolate and devastate in the paint, and it’s a big reason why a defense first time like the Storm has hit the Over in eight of their last 10 games.

Aces vs Storm game info

Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
Date: Tuesday, September 6, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2

Aces vs Storm key injuries

Aces: None.
Storm: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Aces vs Storm betting trend to know

The Over is 8-2 in Storm last 10 overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Storm.

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