Week 4 of the USFL concludes with Sunday’s meeting between Kevin Sumlin’s Houston Gamblers and Larry Fedora’s New Orleans Breakers.
The Breakers have established themselves as one of the top teams in the league after a strong 2-1 start to the season.
Will the Gamblers (1-2) play spoiler and ruin the Breakers’ fun?
Check out our USFL picks and predictions for the Houston Gamblers and New Orleans Breakers on Sunday, May 8 to find out.
Gamblers vs Breakers odds
| Houston Gamblers | New Orleans Breakers | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.5 (-110) | Spread | -4.5 (-110) |
| +170 | Moneyline | -210 |
| Over 38.5 (-110) | Total | Under 38.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel, as of May 8, 2022.
The Breakers are comfortable favorites, varying from -5 to -5.5 favorites across the books. The total fluctuates across some books so be sure to shop around. Currently, the total can be had between 38 and 39 depending on the book.
Gamblers vs Breakers predictions
Predictions made on 5/7/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Gamblers vs Breakers game info
• Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
• Date: Sunday, May 8, 2022
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock
Gamblers at Breakers betting preview
Weather
Weather is not expected to be a factor in the handicapping of this game. Birmingham is expected to have mostly clear skies, a high of 80 degrees during the day, and winds of only 5 mph.
Key injuries
Gamblers: Kenji Bahar QB (Questionable).
Breakers: EJ Bibbs TE (Probable).
Gamblers vs Breakers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Breakers appear to be the better football team in this matchup, but you know what they say: the spread is the great equalizer. Let’s first dive into the resume of each team.
New Orleans had a solid win over a good Stars team in Week 1. Next, they blew the doors off the Bandits 34-3 in the most impressive performance by any team in the league so far this season. They did suffer a 22-13 loss to the Stallions in Week 3, but the Stallions are the league’s only remaining undefeated team. We can’t hold that loss against them too much.
Kyle Sloter leads the way at quarterback with 657 yards and four touchdowns, while an impressive running game is led by Jordan Ellis and T.J. Logan Jr. Johnnie Dixon leads the way receiving with 165 yards and three scores.
The Gamblers beat a bad Panthers team 17-12 in Week 1, narrowly lost to the undefeated Stallions 33-28 in Week 2, and suffered a one-point defeat to the Bandits in Week 3. They don’t do anything particularly well from a statistical profile on either side of the ball.
That being said, the running game has taken off recently. Running back Mark Thompson rumbled for 147 yards and a score against the Bandits a week ago. He leads the league with 310 yards on the season and is averaging a robust 5.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Clayton Thorson finally showed signs of life in Week 3 with an impressive 240 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 10 yards per attempt.
Outside of the dominant performance against the Bandits, the Breakers have played like an average team. We understand why they’re favored, but the Gamblers haven’t lost by more than five points at any point this season. We’re going to trust the Gamblers to maintain the progress they’ve made over the last few weeks and keep this game close.
Prediction: Gamblers +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The Under was a great bet for the first few weeks of the USFL. Books have caught on, however, and have adjusted the totals so low that we’re unsure if any value is left.
With a total below 40, you want to be sure that points will be hard to come by. We aren’t sure that’s the case in this matchup, as the Gamblers finally appear to have found their footing offensively and have the most productive running back in the league to lean upon.
The Breakers are one of the only teams in the league with a competent passing attack and ground attack and should be able to score on a mediocre Gamblers defense.
We don’t see much of an edge with this bet but are leaning towards the Over.
Prediction: Over 38 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The Breakers have had one dominant performance this season that seems to have skewed public perceptions. They’re undoubtedly in the upper half of the league, but they’ve looked completely mortal in their other two games.
There isn’t much separating a lot of these teams at this point in the USFL. A few funny bounces either way could sway the outcome of this game. Laying over a field goal is a dicey proposition in this league unless that involves fading the Maulers or backing the Stallions. Neither is the case in this matchup and therefore we will be taking the points with the underdog in a volatile matchup.
Pick: Gamblers +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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