When Kai Kara-France defeated Askar Askarov by decision last weekend, not only did he set himself up as next in line for a flyweight title shot but he also became the biggest underdog to win on the main card at a UFC event in 2022.
With a third of the year (and more than 100 fights) in the books, now is a good time to look back and see just where the betting value lies in terms of favorites and underdogs. Especially with UFC 273 around the corner and the three biggest fights on the card featuring massively lopsided UFC odds.
Note: the numbers below are for UFC Fights since the start of 2022 and use our Covers closing lines. Six fights that closed at a pick'em price were omitted.
UFC Favorites Betting Trends for 2022
| Types of Favorites | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Favorites | 78-38 | -5.73 U |
| Main Card Favorites | 38-14 | +1.14 U |
| Undercard Favorites | 40-24 | -6.87 U |
| Favorites of more than -300 | 32-4 | +3.45 U |
| Main Card faves of more than -300 | 16-1 | +2.55 U |
| Undercard faves of more than -300 | 16-3 | +0.9 U |
How to bet favorites
Clearly, blind-betting favorites isn't a reliable way to turn a profit long-term as this chart shows. You didn't think it would be that easy, did you?
However, betting favorites is certainly more profitable in main card bouts which makes sense when you consider that these are typically the more proven fighters with an overall deeper resume of work and more data for oddsmakers to extrapolate from.
The biggest favorites have been particularly profitable, especially in main card events where faves of -300 or more went a perfect 16-0 until Kara-France pulled off the upset last weekend. Even with incredibly lopsided odds on these faves, blind betting them over the course of the entire year would be paying off.
This is especially interesting because these numbers are based on closing lines and many of the biggest faves like Islam Makhachev, Magomed Ankalaev, and others open with significantly better lines which would make this an even more lucrative play if you jump on these massive favorites early.
Another angle to consider is parlaying several of these bigger favorites for a better payout. In five consecutive events from UFC 271 through March 12, faves of -300 or greater went 18-0 with at least three cashing at each event.
Another interesting trend to note is that while those massive faves win at an extremely high rate, that isn't reflected in a finish rate. While faves of -300 or more are 32-4, only 16 (50%) of those faves ended the fight inside the distance. That's virtually identical to the approximately 49% finish rate that the UFC has had over the last few years.
So if you think a massive favorite is more likely to pick up a stoppage win against an overwhelmed foe, you might want to reconsider.
UFC Underdogs Betting Trends for 2022
| Types of Underdogs | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Underdogs | 38-78 | -19.16 U |
| Underdogs from +100 to +150 | 25-23 | +7.44 U |
| Dogs greater than +150, less than +250 | 11-30 | -9.8 U |
| Underdogs of +250 or more | 2-25 | -17.8 U |
How to bet Underdogs
It might be tempting to back underdogs when you see that big plus money next to their name, but you should avoid that temptation as the above box shows. It's certainly memorable when massive underdogs like Julianna Peña pull off a shocking upset but those instances are few and far between.
That said, it is a very profitable play to consider short dogs between +100 and +150 who have won just over 50% of their fights and have turned a very tidy +7.44 unit profit this year.
It seems that in those tighter lines with fighters that are perceived as being nearly even, the result is practically a coin flip which puts the betting value squarely on the fighter paying out at plus money.
Only five main card underdogs bigger than +150 have cashed this year, and before Kara-France the biggest upset was Calvin Kattar at +190 versus Giga Chikadze.
The other three pups were all live dogs at +160. Nick Maximov was undefeated and ended up taking a close split decision against an unranked fighter fresh off a loss. Deiveson Figueiredo was the former flyweight champ and had been a -195 fave against Moreno just seven months earlier. Tai Tuivasa went into his matchup with Derrick Lewis on a four-fight winning streak and closed in the neighborhood of +145 at some books.
Kara-France was clearly the biggest surprise, but even he was the No. 6 ranked flyweight contender and was coming off back-to-back first-round finishes.
Conclusion
Of course, betting on fights is about far more than trends, it's about matchups. You never want to back a fighter purely because they are a big favorite or a small dog.
But if you take these trends into account when weighing up future matchups, there are definitely some things to consider.
The biggest takeaways at this point in the year are that short underdogs (in the range of +100 to +150, maybe even +160) are worth a wager. Don't shy away from laying the chalk with big favorites on the main card, but try to bet those fights early before the payout shrinks even more.
